Preparing for the Future – Which Is Right Now!

1. Preparing for the Future – Which Is Right Now! Dell Gines, MBA, CeCD Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Sr. Community Development Advisor The views in this presentation do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City nor the Federal Reserve System. National Economic Gardening Conference - 2013

2. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Perspective The mission of the Community Development function of the Kansas City Fed is to support the economic growth objectives of the Federal Reserve Act by promoting community development and fair and equal access to credit. Our job is to serve as a neutral convener of resources between those who have and those who don’t, because we know all segments of the population, including the less advantaged, benefit from both economic growth and fair and equal access to credit. The Grow Your Own Guide provides a high level overview of what it takes to conduct entrepreneurship based economic development.

3. Doing Good Work Economic Development Defined “Fostering a dynamic environment where economic opportunities can be discovered, taken advantage of and maximized to their fullest extent to create balanced and sustainable economic growth, jobs, a positive sense of ‘place’ and an improved quality of life in a defined geographic region.” – Dell Gines

4. Voices From The Field

5. Voices From The Field “I hope the future holds a stronger recognition of the importance of community and place and less focus on abstract constructs of market theory. The focus on concepts like growth rates, market share and GDP has clouded the fundamental reason to be about the business of economic development. If we are not improving the quality of life for people, then why waste the time and effort?” – John Woods, Revitalizing Neighborhoods

6. Voices From The Field “A lot of that comes down to cost of living, amenities, school districts, etc. People will always want to live where they feel like they are welcome and have access to what is important/of interest. These parts of the concept of community will stay the same, but I am interested to see how the remote workforce impacts the business community where remote employees choose to live.” – Cecilia Harry, Harry Development Strategies & Leavenworth County Development Corporation

7. Voices From The Field The Experts Tom Lyons, Professor of Entrepreneurship at Baruch College “Entrepreneurship will be the economic development strategy of choice going forward because it does not merely focus on growth; it focuses on human and business development. Growth is merely more of the same, while development transforms. Ultimately, we want the economic transformation of our communities.” Daniel Isenberg, Professor of Management Practice at Babson Global “DO  Encourage specific locations, such as cities and rural regions to build their own programs, facilitate, celebrate, convene, and enable private and other public sector stakeholders, take a holistic, multi-stakeholder, ecosystem perspective. DON’T  Assume that piecemeal programs (clusters, incubators, loan guarantees) will be beneficial in-and-of themselves, Assume that entrepreneurship will happen magically, all by itself.”

8. What Keeps Me Up At Night 3 Things Keep Me Up At Night: • Ethnic Demographic Shifts • Aging Demographic Shifts • Changing Workforce Structure From - http://www.bansheemann7.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/sleep.jpg

9. Racial and Ethnic Shifts Source: Passel, Jeffery and D’Vera Cohn. 2008. “U.S. Population Projections:2005-2050.” Washington, D.C.: Pew Hispanic Center, February; Census Bureau 2011 population estimates. PEW RESEARCH CENTER

10. Racial and Ethnic Shifts Ratios & implications

11. Racial and Ethnic Shifts

12. Aging Demographics

13. Aging Demographics The Experts Kerry Hanlon, AARP & Forbes Writer and Expert on the Senior Workforce “At a certain age you may not want to go back in-house to work. Senior entrepreneurs are partnering with someone younger who brings in tech and enthusiasm and partners with experience and stable economic environment. Economic developers should reach out to recently retired seniors as board members, mentors and consultants in the incubator programs and make them part of the discussion. Seniors may be a partner, investor or provide seed capital. If you can keep people as they age in the economy, it improves the economy because they are still productive. Many older tenured workers who got laid off are coming back as contract workers. It keeps your resume sharp and keeps you engaged and networking. Senior entrepreneurship can be a huge part of the solution if it is done thoughtfully.” Elizabeth Isele, Co-Founder of Senior Entrepreneurship Works www.seniorentrepreneurshipworks.org “…boosting the economic self-reliance of individual seniors and creating jobs, so they are raising the economic vitality of whatever community they are in, given the size of the demographic is a huge win/win. They are going to be contributing to social security and the longer they work the healthier they will be, which also reduces costs.”

14. Shifts in the Labor Force Long Term Unemployment

15. Shifts in the Labor Force Loss of Middle Skilled Occupations “According to the theory of supply and demand, a decrease in the relative demand for workers in middle-skill occupations results in a decline in the relative wage for those workers.” Source: The Vanishing Middle: Job Polarization and Workers’ Response to the Decline in Middle-Skill Jobs (Tuzemen & Willis, 2012 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

16. My Predictions of the Future • An increased movement towards grow your own entrepreneurship based economic development strategies and retention centered economic development that will: • Focus on demographic diversity • Focus on repurposing human capital from labor market shifts into entrepreneurship growth opportunities • Focus on restructuring incentives towards local business creation and growth • A reduction in silos between economic development, workforce and small business development • Renewed focus on PLACE with developers focusing on holistic development of geographic regions • A move from organizational based economic development to organic network based development centered around managing ecosystems and networks

17. Conclusion The future is up to us! If we want to do the most good, if we want to have the most impact, if we want to position our nation to be competitive for the foreseeable future we can’t be satisfied with status quo economic development. We have to be innovative, diverse, strategic and continue to create transformative organizations that help create and grow businesses across all of our communities.

18. Contact Dell Gines Sr. Community Development Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City dell.gines@kc.frb.org (402) 221-5606 For more information & resources http://kansascityfed.org/community/ To sign up for our bi-monthly email please email the address above.