The Global Consciousness Project Weak Signals, Strong Implications Roger Nelson

1. The Global Consciousness ProjectWeak Signals, Strong ImplicationsRoger Nelson

2. The EGG Project(aka the Global Consciousness Project) International collaboration 75 Scientists, Artists, Friends, … Network of host sites world wide The tools: FieldREG technology … Make an EEG for the earth, an Electrogaiagram Engaging moments of global events The question: Can we capture a Glimmering of Global Consciousness?

3. The technology is only now availableElectronics, Computers, Networking REG/RNG devices run continuously Synchronized computers and software Internet transfer of data to central server Automatic archiving, public access Formal analyses and explorations Background, methods, poetic history

4. Homepage http://noosphere.princeton.edu Berger: Web Design Magic Buttons Status Day Sum Results Extract Primary Links Menu at Bottom

5. A Real-Time Display (Bierman)

6. How it works: Here’s 1000 Trials from A physical random sourceEach trial is the sum of 200 bits

7. The binomial distribution of 1000 200-bit trials, compared with Theoretical normal distribution expected

8. Composing the data as a Random Walk (A Drunkard’s Walk)

9. Here we see the combined datafor a whole day, from 48 eggs

10. We can see better what’s happening by plotting cumulative deviationsCorrelation Tilts … Variance Spreads

11. When you put a thing in order, and give it a name, and you are all in accord, it becomes.- - From the Navajo, Masked Gods, Waters, 1950

12. For most of the formal predictionsWe specify a “Standard Analysis” Normalized signed deviation of mean, zi =(mi-m)/s Composite across eggs: Stouffer Zs = (Szi)/N1/2 Composite Z is squared for c2 distributed statistic Large cumulative sum of Zs2 –1 or c2 – df Reflects inter-egg correlation, or Consistent large deviations, or both

13. Cumulative sum of c2- its expectationMay show a trend if there is a common Influence or correlation among the eggs

14. Major disasters that engage us powerfullyOften correlate with big deviations

15. Context explorations: Six hours of dataAround the beginning of bombing in KosovoCumulative deviation of Zs2 or c2

16. The Pope’s 6-day pilgrimage to the middle east:An occasion of hope for resolution of differences

17. Political events, even big ones, are not necessarily of interest to the EGG

18. We’ll try anything once. Significant correlations with astrologically determined “hot” times

19. An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zonesCumulative excess deviation of means Model Prediction Weak Replication

20. A major alternative analysis Variance of the scores Sum of zi2-1across eggs is c2 with N df Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction

21. Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT

22. Y2K New Years 1999-2000: Prototype AnalysisCumdev of smoothed variance across eggs

23. New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

24. New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window

25. Repeating events teach us how much we Have to learn, 2001 , 2000 , 1999 

26. Inspired by the result in 2001 We examine the previous year’s data

27. And the year before that … from which we Learn once again how much we don’t know

28. The destruction of a world treasureApproximate time, noon in Afghanistan

29. The destruction of the World Trade TowersSept 11 2001 A 50-hour trend followed the attacks

30. Sept 11 Formal prediction: Inter-egg Variance Red is real data, Green is Pseudorandom

31. More context: Variance trends Sept 10-12Does the evidence indicate precursor Information -- 4 hours, maybe more?

32. Radin: Odds against chance For variance excursion on Sept 11The real data vs pseudorandom data Data from EGG network Pseudorandom clone data

33. Shoup: examining a larger contextComparing Sept 11 vs four months of days

34. Bancel: Autocorrelation on Sept 11Structure where there should be none

35. Summary of statistical measures for Sept 11 Measure Probability estimate Comparison standard Composite deviation 0.003 Resampling: 400 days Inter-node correlation 0.0001 Student t: 400 days Device variance peak 0.001 Permutation: control p = 0.756 Autocorrelation 0.0003 60 control days: p > 0.05 News correlation 0.002 Student t: 365 days Diurnal variation 0.30 Time series: 365 days

36. Bottom line: the full formal database113 global events over 4 years

37. What do we have in hand?Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done

38. Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Refine operation and dissemination Ask good questions, smart and useful Learn whether consciousness “works” Support quest for theoretical picture Teach people about creative mind Convince leaders we are one Contribute to better future for culture

39. We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together?-- Parker Palmer, educator http://noosphere.princeton.edu