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The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports

The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports . Paul Buckley Gonzaga College High School Washington, DC pbuckley@gonzaga.org. Why?. Growth of Statistics. Why use Sports?. So how can Sports help us learn AP Statistics?. Statistical Inference Through Sports.

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The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports

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  1. The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports Paul Buckley Gonzaga College High School Washington, DC pbuckley@gonzaga.org

  2. Why? • Growth of Statistics

  3. Why use Sports?

  4. So how can Sports help us learn AP Statistics?

  5. Statistical Inference Through Sports Miguel Cabrera vs Austin JacksonWho is really responsible for Detroit’s success?

  6. Two-Proportion Z Test

  7. The Data

  8. Simulate the Games StatKey Fathom

  9. Simulation results Likelihood = p-value

  10. Experimental Design Through Sports Which is the better putter?

  11. The Experiment • Control – putter, ball, ‘course’, swing • Randomization – prevent ‘hot hand’ • Easier to identify the response variable and what would affect it • Replication • Blinding • Blocking

  12. Experimental Design Through Sports Which is the better putter?

  13. Regression Through Sports Moneyball scene: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGf6LNWY9AI

  14. Regression Through Sports Offense vs DefenseWhich is the better predictor of wins?

  15. Think of the possibilities… • Soccer: Free Kicks vs Goals • Hockey: Power Plays vs Goals • Golf, which is a better predictor of success, greens in regulation or number of putts? • Tennis: unforced errors or 1st serve percentage vs points won

  16. What else? • Putting together a relay team (track, swimming) – lesson in z-scores, normal distributions • Game strategies – situational hitting – conditional probabilities • Layups vs jumpers vs 3-pointers – non-linear regression • And ……?

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