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Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook

Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook. Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chief Economist / Head of Research Frankfurt, May 4, 2011. Commodities, Gold and Equities also a hit in 2011? . 2. Performance in EUR, indexed, 1.1.2010 = 100. China and Germany: Growth engines in 2010. 3.

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Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook

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  1. Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chief Economist / Head of Research Frankfurt, May 4, 2011

  2. Commodities, Gold and Equities also a hit in 2011? 2 Performance in EUR, indexed, 1.1.2010 = 100

  3. China and Germany: Growth engines in 2010 3 Index

  4. China 9,3 % Japan 8,8% USA 24,4 % Germany 5,0 % France 4,1 % UK 3,6 % Italy 3,2 % Rest of the world 39,1 % China has become the world‘s second largest economy in 2010 4 Shares of nominal GDP in $ 2010 Sources: EIU (as of July 2010), Helaba Research

  5. Transmission of the shock in Japan 5 Indirect effect (global supply chains) Direct effect (Imports/Exports, Profits) Japan Rest of the world Consumer and corporate confidence Financial and commodity markets

  6. Effectsdepend on contamination 6 Source: Google Maps

  7. Export destinations 7 Share in %, Jan. to Nov. 2010 Source. Destatis, Helaba Research

  8. Import regions 8 Share in %, Jan. to Nov. 2010 Source. Destatis, Helaba Research

  9. Strong demand for German goods in Asia 9 Index: January 2001 = 100 Index

  10. Long term unemployment at a record high 10 in weeks

  11. High unemployment dampens wage growth 11 %

  12. The results of Convergence III are still open 12 %-points, yield spread government bonds vs. German bunds

  13. Growing differences in the euro zone 13 Unit labour costs, indexed Q1 2002 = 100

  14. Labor market performs better in Germany 14 Unemployment rate in %

  15. German bond market: Between safe haven and euro zone liabilities 15 % Index

  16. Excess liquidity remains in the financial sector 16 Indexed, 01.01.1999 = 100

  17. Euro remains slightly overvalued against the US-Dollar 17 US-$

  18. The price of overcoming the crisis: consolidation lowers potential growth 18 General government budget balance % GDP, OECD

  19. 140 140 120 120 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 As usual: the oil price is a burden 19 USD/Barrel brent, monthly average Boom 2006/2007 New Economy Boom US invades Iraq 2nd oil crisis (Iran – Iraq war) Gulf War 1st oil crisis Financial crisis „Lehman“ Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research

  20. Factors to watch 20 What about Japan? What about the US debt crisis? What about the European Debt Crisis? What about the Middle East? What about a downward spiral?

  21. Disclaimer 21 This presentation was prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains non-binding analysis and forecasts for current and future market conditions. The data is based on sources which we consider to be reliable but for which we do not assume any liability in relation to their accuracy, completeness or their being up-to-date. Any data included in this presentation is for information purposes. They may not be taken as an quote or recommendation for investment decisions.

  22. In case of questions please contact: • Helaba Research • phone: +49/69/91 32-20 24 • mailto:research@helaba.de

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