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Heat Pump Technology Capturing the HVAC Market in the Coming Decade

Heat Pump Technology Capturing the HVAC Market in the Coming Decade. Jake Marin HVAC Program Manager Efficiency Vermont. Our Roadmap. Brief technology overview Customer Economics Case Study Market potential Programs to accelerate progress Future State – even more compelling.

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Heat Pump Technology Capturing the HVAC Market in the Coming Decade

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  1. Heat Pump TechnologyCapturing the HVAC Market in the Coming Decade Jake Marin HVAC Program Manager Efficiency Vermont

  2. Our Roadmap • Brief technology overview • Customer Economics • Case Study • Market potential • Programs to accelerate progress • Future State – even more compelling

  3. Benefits of Heat Pumps • Heating and cooling from same piece of equipment • Cheaper heat than most conventional combustion and resistive heating systems • Also efficient cooling with SEERs >25 • Ductless heat pumps are a quick and non- invasive retrofit installation • New construction - reduced need for heating and cooling infrastructure • Can be completely sustainable if powered by renewables

  4. A Quick Technology Primer

  5. What IS a heat pump, anyway? • An air conditioner in reverse REVERSE REVERSE

  6. Heat Source  Heat Sink

  7. Heat Source • Air (Air Source Heat Pump)

  8. Ground (Ground Source or Geothermal Heat Pump) • Earth

  9. Water

  10. Heat Sink – Space Heat • Air Delivered

  11. Heat Sink – Space Heat • Water Delivered

  12. Heat Sink – Domestic Hot WaterHeat Pump Water Heaters • Air  Water • 1/3-1/2 the electricity as a standard electric water tank (saves 50-66%) • Incentive programs in 28+ states • New federal standards in 2015 will require electric DHW>55 gal to be a heat pump water heater

  13. Source/Sink Variations • Air – Air • Example is ductless mini-splits • Air – Water • Daikin Altherma or heat pump water heaters • Water – Water • “Geothermal” or ground source feeding hydronic distribution • Water – Air • Ground (water) source feeding into ducted air handler

  14. World of Heat Pumps • Many Applications and Forms • Space Heat • Water Heat • Cooling • Dryers • More?

  15. Are they efficient? • They Move Heat, rather than Generate Heat • Leverage heat existing in the environment rather than burn fuel to release energy • COPs of 2.0-4.0+ • What is COP? • COP (Coefficient Of Performance) = Energy Out/Energy In • High SEER (Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio) – Cooling • High HSPF (Heating Season Performance Factor) - Heating • So… A COP of 2-4 is equivalent to 200-400% efficiency!

  16. More Out than In (COP of 3)? Heat source: Air, Ground or Water 3 kWh HEAT PUMP 1 kWh Heat sink: House 3 kWh Electricity In to Move Heat

  17. Customer Economics

  18. Ductless Mini Splits

  19. The Displacement Model

  20. Play with Numbers • House before: • 850 gallons fuel oil ($4/gal) • $3400/yr for heat (117 MMBtu) • House after: • 170 gallons oil + 7300 kWh electricity ($0.15/kWh) • $680 (oil) + $1100 (electric) = $1780/yr for heat (48 MMBtu) • Net Savings - $1620/yr (69 MMBtu – 59% Reduction)

  21. A Comparison of Heating Fuels

  22. Typical Residential Heating Fuel Costs (75 MMBtu/Yr) • Without Natural Gas (or biomass), heating costs run $2000-$3000+ per year

  23. Heating Fuel Cost Savings with an ASHP (COP 3.0) • Savings ~$1,000-$2000/yr+ • Assuming 90% heating fuel offset and no cooling effects

  24. Case Study • Building Description • 2 Story, 3 Bedroom home in Burlington, VT • 2280 ft2 CFA • Some weatherization (primarily in the attic) • Modeled design heat load ~54,000 btu/h • Existing oil boiler – 680 gallons/yr ($2600)

  25. Case Study - Heat Pump Installation • 2 Mini-splits installed in November, 2012 • One Mitsubishi FE18 in dining/kitchen and one FE12 in master bedroom

  26. Case Study - Fuel Use Data Net Savings = $594 • Some considerations • 73% displacement • All things equal, COP = 2.2 (assumes all added electric went to heat) • Annual increase in kWh is not necessarily heating-only

  27. Lessons Learned, Next Steps • DHW disaggregation a wild card • Accurate billing analysis difficult with unregulated bulk fuel deliveries • Sub-metered data necessary for accurate evaluation • 13 Homes where sub-metering is installed • 9 of these have an experimental COP metering • Beginning to gather data, analysis in late spring/early summer • Developing better tools for calculating bulk fuel use

  28. Economics for Vermont and Beyond

  29. Heating Fuels for Vermont Homes • Source: US DOE, 2000 Census

  30. Potential Savings for Vermont Source: Hyper-Efficient Devices: Assessing the Fuel Displacement Potential in VT of Plug in Vehicles and Heat Pump Technology, Letendre 2013 • Assuming fuel oil at $3.99/gal, LP at $2.99/gal, electricity at $0.14615/kWh

  31. Theoretical Maximum Efficiency (COP) • Combustion Technology is near maximum • Heat Pumps still present huge potential

  32. National Sales – Ductless Heat Pumps Mitsubishi Electric “Market Data”

  33. Worldwide Adoption Japan 90% 7.2M Systems China 86% 16.7M Systems USA 4% 0.4M Systems Ductless is a small percent of the U.S. HVAC market but current building and energy usage trends indicate a large growth opportunity Europe 81% 7.6M Systems Mitsubishi Electric “Market Data”

  34. Vermont Market – Residential Splits • 2011-2012 Sales: • Close to 35% growth over previous year • ~1720 Units • 2012-2013 Sales: • Major manufacturers saw over 40% growth • ~2400 Units • See a trend?

  35. Programs

  36. VT Comprehensive Energy Plan • 90% Renewable by 2050 • Renewable thermal energy? • Biomass and electrical • Heat pumps are a big piece of this energy puzzle • Programs being put in place to support this ambitious goal

  37. Programs – CEED Cold Climate Heat Pump Program • What is it? • Collaboration between Efficiency Vermont, Green Mountain Power, and Neighborworks of Western Vermont • Incentive program for installing heat pumps in residential and commercial buildings • Both ductless and central systems – All air source • Fossil fuel displacement

  38. Programs – CEED Cold Climate Heat PumpsEligible Equipment • The world’s first cold climate heat pump standard:

  39. Programs – CEED Cold Climate Heat Pumps Customer Eligibility • Must be Legacy CVPS customer • Must use fossil fuels • 300 gallons of fuel oil/kero • 450 gallons of LP • Building must be weatherized • Avoid putting heat pumps in “leaky old farmhouses”

  40. Programs – CEED Cold Climate Heat PumpsCustomer Incentives

  41. Programs – Cold Climate Heat PumpElectric Heat Retrofit • What is it? • EVT program directed at electric resistance displacement • NOT a fuel switch program • Targeting residential customers with primary electric heat

  42. Programs – Cold Climate Heat PumpElectric Heat Retrofit • Equipment Eligibility- Same as CEED CCHP (ductless only) • Customer Eligibility- State-wide residential electric customers who use primarily electric resistance heat • Incentives- $1,000 for each home • Official rollout…Today!

  43. Lease Programs – GMP • August 1, 2013 Rollout • Only for GMP customers • 600+ calls in the first few days • So successful, had to stop taking new calls • 447 homes have been visited • Around 100 ductless units installed • Plans to go State-wide

  44. Lease Programs – Glow (www.glowheat.com) • Monthly costs $52-$57, no money down • Private 15 yr. lease arrangement • Installing similar equipment to CEED/HiPER

  45. Programs- Other States • Maine • $600 unit, optional on-bill financing (7.75%) • 1350 homes – low income • 660 homes – open market • Connecticut • 3576 heat pumps – low income • 490 heat pumps – open market • Other Programs • Massachusetts, New York, New Hampshire, Pacific Northwest

  46. A Look Forward

  47. Technology to Look Out For • Near Term • 30+ SEER ductless • Multi-zone cold climate optimized ductless • Integrated water heating • More customer options all around • Long Term • Constantly improving efficiencies • CO2 Refrigerant Systems • No need for back-up systems (true replacement)

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