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Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture

Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’. Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture. Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012. Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’.

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Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture

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  1. Impacts on the agricultural sector of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’ Gaelle Gouarin OECD Trade and Agriculture Food chain network meeting Mobilizing the food chain for health OECD, PARIS, October 25-26 2012

  2. Impacts of moving towards a ‘healthy diet’ • Measure impact on main agricultural sector aggregates of : • Scenario 1 : Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy. • Scenario 2 : WHO dietary guideline target of saturated fat consumption at 10% or less of total calories • Method: Simulations using the Aglink-Cosimo Model

  3. What is the AGLINK - COSIMO model? • A partial equilibrium model covering the main agricultural markets (cereals, oilseeds, sugar, meats and dairy commodities), biofuels and fish & seafood • A recursive-dynamic model (i.e. the market equilibrium in one year includes lagged variables) • A Policy Specific Model: includes explicitly policy measures, such as import tariffs, tariff rate quotas, subsidies, etc.

  4. Aglink-Cosimo country coverage Argentina Brazil China Russia Australia CHENOR Canada European Union (15) AGLINK exogenous 30 countries 18 regional aggregates European Union (12) Japan COSIMO USA Korea Mexico New Zealand endogenous

  5. Decrease in fat consumption following the implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy • Reduction in total fat consumption following a comprehensive prevention strategy.

  6. Implementation of a comprehensive prevention strategy : % decrease required in fat consumption

  7. Scenario 1 results : Impacts on world prices of a comprehensive prevention strategy

  8. Moving to WHO guidelines for saturated fats ( 10% of total calories) • Calculate saturated fat consumption in grams for each country(based on FBS-FAO), aglink database and secretariat estimates • Total Calories taken from national sources and assumptions applied over similar countries • Select those countries whose consumption of saturated fat >=10 % of total calories

  9. Saturated fats as a share of total calories consumed

  10. SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines

  11. Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  12. Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  13. Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  14. Scenario results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  15. Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  16. Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  17. Scenario2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  18. Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  19. Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  20. Scenario 2 results : saturated fat target 10% of total calories

  21. OECD Trade and Agriculture www.oecd.org/agriculture Contact tad.contact@oecd.org

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