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Overview of DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling Project: Present Activity and Future Goals

Explore climate change effects on water supply in NYC - from precipitation to turbidity. Learn about projection methods and potential impacts on water quality and quantity.

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Overview of DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling Project: Present Activity and Future Goals

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  1. Water Quality New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply Overview of DEP Climate Change Integrated Modeling Project: Present Activity and Future Goals Donald C. Pierson, Elliot M. Schneiderman, Mark S. Zion, David Lounsbury, and Donald Kent Bureau of Water Supply, New York City Department of Environmental Protection Hampus Markensten Upstate Freshwater Institute Allan Frei, Aavudai Anandhi, and Adao H. Matonse Institute for Sustainable Cities, City University of New York Watershed Science and Technical Conference West Point, New York September 14-15, 2009

  2. Effects of Climate Change on the New York City Water Supply • Climate Change is happening and will continue to occur. • But we don’t know what the effects will be on: • The Quantity of Water Stored in the Water Supply • The Quality of Water Stored in the Reservoir System. • Speculation is easy. Projections of changes are difficult, and are inherently uncertain. • The purpose of this project is to move from speculation to projection.

  3. Climate Change Scenarios Delta Change Method Applied for 8 GCM/Emission Scenarios • GCM/Emission Scenario data obtained from IPCC AR4 (2007) • For each GCM/Emission Scenario, precipitation and air temperature are compared in control vs. future periods to derive monthly delta change factors.

  4. Climate Change Scenarios Change in Mean Annual Air Temperature (°C) • GCM/Emission Scenario data obtained from IPCC AR4 (2007) • For each GCM/Emission Scenario, precipitation and air temperature are compared in control vs. future periods to derive monthly delta change factors.

  5. Climate Change Scenarios Percent Change in Mean Annual Precipitation • GCM/Emission Scenario data obtained from IPCC AR4 (2007) • For each GCM/Emission Scenario, precipitation and air temperature are compared in control vs. future periods to derive monthly delta change factors.

  6. GCM Derived Changes in Air Temperature and Precipitation and Watershed Model Derived Projections of Stream flow and Snowpack Sum of Delaware and Catskill System Watersheds 100 Year Forward Scenarios max 87.5 %tile median 12.5 %tile min Mean Air Temperature (oC) Mean Precipitation (cm/day) Mean Snowpack (cm) Mean Streamflow (cm/day) Based on 8 GCM/Emission Scenarios. Upper and lower bars are max and min of these. Box is the range of the remaining 6 scenarios. Bar within box is the median. Line shows baseline run.

  7. Start With Speculation

  8. Precipitation • Magnitude • Intensity • Timing • Other Climate Data • Solar Radiation • Humidity • Wind • Air Temperature • Magnitude • Seasonality Potential Climate Change Effects on NYC Water Supply Climate Forcing

  9. Potential Climate Change Effects on NYC Water Supply • Precipitation • Magnitude • Intensity • Timing • Other Climate Data • Solar Radiation • Humidity • Wind Hydrology and Hydrodynamics • Air Temperature • Magnitude • Seasonality • Hydrology Effects • Increased Evapotranspiration • Increased Precipitation • Changes in Winter Precipitation, Snow Accumulation, and Timing of Snowmelt • Changes in Antecedent Conditions • Changes in Partitioning Between Sub-surface and Surface Runoff • Changes in the Amount and Seasonality of Stream Flow • Hydro-thermal Effects • Increased Water Temperature • Reduced Ice Cover • Longer Period of Thermal Stratification • Changes in Reservoir Water level and Residence Time

  10. Potential Climate Change Effects on NYC Water Supply • Precipitation • Magnitude • Intensity • Timing • Other Climate Data • Solar Radiation • Humidity • Wind Turbidity • Air Temperature • Magnitude • Seasonality • Hydrology Effects • Increased Evapotranspiration • Increased Precipitation • Changes in Winter Precipitation, Snow Accumulation, and Timing of Snowmelt • Changes in Antecedent Conditions • Changes in Partitioning Between Sub-surface and Surface Runoff • Changes in the Amount and Seasonality of Stream Flow • Hydro-thermal Effects • Increased Water Temperature • Reduced Ice Cover • Longer Period of Thermal Stratification • Changes in Reservoir Water level and Residence Time • Reservoir Turbidity • Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Turbidity Inputs • Changes in the Transport of Turbidity Due to Changes in Hydrodynamics • Changes in Reservoir Operations • Changes in Alum Use • Turbidity Loading Effects • Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Storm Events • Changes in runoff:rainfall response • Changes in Stream Channel Erosion • Changes in Landscape Erosion

  11. Potential Climate Change Effects on NYC Water Supply Eutrophication • Precipitation • Magnitude • Intensity • Timing • Other Climate Data • Solar Radiation • Humidity • Wind • Air Temperature • Magnitude • Seasonality • Hydrology Effects • Increased Evapotranspiration • Increased Precipitation • Changes in Winter Precipitation, Snow Accumulation, and Timing of Snowmelt • Changes in Antecedent Conditions • Changes in Partitioning Between Sub-surface and Surface Runoff • Changes in the Amount and Seasonality of Stream Flow • Hydro-thermal Effects • Increased Water Temperature • Reduced Ice Cover • Longer Period of Thermal Stratification • Changes in Reservoir Water level and Residence Time • Reservoir Trophic Status • Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of Nutrient Inputs • Changes in the Nutrient Availability Due to Changes in Stratification and Mixing • Changes Phytoplankton Growth and Succession Due to Changes in Water Temperature and Light Extinction • Changes in Hypolimnetic Oxygen and Nutrients • Nutrient Loading Effects • Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Storm Events • Changes in the Timing of Nutrient Loading • Changes in Proportion of Surface Runoff • Changes in Watershed Biogeochemistry

  12. How to Make Projections

  13. Integrated Modeling System

  14. Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Integrated Modeling System Watershed Models Data Models Flows WQ Loads

  15. Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Time Series –Historical Reservoir Operations Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Integrated Modeling System Watershed and Reservoir Models Data Models Flows WQ Loads Reservoir WQ

  16. Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Integrated Modeling System Watershed, Reservoir and System Models Data Models Results Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  17. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Integrated Modeling System Analysis of Watershed Management and Eutrophication Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  18. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Climate Change (Delta Change, SDM,RCM) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions System Infrastructure Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Demand Projections • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Operating Rules Integrated Modeling System Climate Change Analysis – Phase I Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  19. CCIMP Phase I • Use existing models • Develop preliminary model coupling to OASIS • GCM data and simple downscaling • Produce preliminary results in 18 months • System Indicators of Water Quantity • Upstream reservoir simulations • Schoharie – effects on turbidity • Cannonsville – effects on eutrophication • Climate Data • Historical • GCM Predictions Historical Reservoir Operations Reservoir Models 1D (Eutrophication) 2D (Turbidity) Watershed Model GWLF Eutrophication System Indicators Turbidity System Indicators Simulated Reservoir Operations System Operation Model OASIS Water Quantity System Indicators

  20. Phase I Study Areas • Quantity – Focus on West-Of-Hudson watersheds and reservoirs • Turbidity – Focus on Schoharie Reservoir • Eutrophication – Focus on Cannonsville Reservoir Results Presented Here • A. Anandhi et al. Future climate projections of NYC watershed: GCM selection and downscaling. • Matonse et al. Climate change impacts on water availability in NYC water supply • M. Zion et al. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Water Quality in New York City Water Supply System • H. Markensten et al. Climate Change Effects on Phytoplankton Composition in Cannonsville Reservoir Location Map NY State NY City

  21. CCIMP Phase II • Continuation of Phase I • Improved Downscaling • Expanded reservoir simulations • Catskill System – effects on turbidity • Delaware System – effects on eutrophication • Expanded system operation modeling • More explicit accounting of EOH and Delaware River Basin • Explicit Feedback between Water Quality and Operation – Use of OST • Additional Tasks • Watershed erosion sediment transport modeling • Forest Modeling • Explicit modeling of watershed biogeochemistry • Model evaluation for climate sensitivity • What model processes are most sensitive to Climate Change? • Are these processes adequately represented in models? • Climate Data • Historical • GCM Predictions • Improved Downscaling Watershed Model Expanded in scope and greater testing GWLF SWAT Concepts Reservoir Models 1D (Eutrophication) 2D (Turbidity) Expanded in scope and greater testing Eutrophication System Indicators Forest Model Turbidity System Indicators Simulated Reservoir Operations Optimization for future climate System Operation Model OASIS Water Quantity System Indicators

  22. Summary • DEP’s system of watershed, reservoir and system operation models are valuable tools to project potential climate change effects on the NYC Water Supply, and to define the climate mediated processes that will be of greatest importance • An Initial phase of analysis is nearing completion and results will be presented in the remainder of this session • Future analysis will make use of improved climate data sets and improved models. New modeling of watershed erosion and forest processes will be undertaken • Phase I analysis, while a valuable initial step, and the best estimate we can make at this time, can not be used to make definitive climate change predictions • Modeling improvements and enhancements to improve climate change projections will lead to improvements in our other modeling missions such as evaluation of watershed management programs and management of reservoir turbidity

  23. Aknowledgements • DEP for funding of CCIMP project as a joint effort with CUNY. • Columbia University and NASA GISS for support in planning CCIMP, and for initial GCM data • Outside reviewers of CCIMP project

  24. Extra

  25. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Integrated Modeling System Water Quality Operational Support Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  26. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions System Infrastructure Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Demand Projections • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Operating Rules Integrated Modeling System Water System Planning Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  27. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions System Infrastructure Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Demand Projections Operating Decisions • System • Operating Rules • Demand Flow Forecasts Operating Rules Integrated Modeling System Operation Support Tool (OST) Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  28. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Climate Change (Delta Change, SDM,RCM) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions System Infrastructure Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Demand Projections • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Operating Rules Integrated Modeling System Climate Change Adaptation - OST Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  29. Watershed Management Watershed - Land Use - Soils - Topography - Hydrography - GIS Based - Management Watershed Models (GWLF-VSA, SWAT) Land Use Changes Trophic State Climate Change (Delta Change, SDM,RCM) Time Series - Meteorology - Flows - WQ Reservoir Models (1D Hydrothermal Eutrophication, CEQUAL-W2) Turbidity -Freq / Magnitude -Alum Decisions System Infrastructure • Watershed • Sediment • Nutrients • Ecosystem Reservoir - Bathymetry - Infrastructure Demand Projections • System Performance • - Storage • Demand • Spills • System • Operating Rules • Demand Operating Rules Integrated Modeling System Climate Change Analysis – Phase II Data Models Results Changes Flows WQ Loads Flows Flows Operations Reservoir WQ System Model (OASIS)

  30. Potential Climate Change Effects on NYC Water Supply System Operation • Hydrology Effects • Increased Evapotranspiration • Increased Precipitation • Changes in Winter Precipitation, Snow Accumulation, and Timing of Snowmelt • Changes in Antecedent Conditions • Changes in Partitioning Between Sub-surface and Surface Runoff • Changes in the Amount and Seasonality of Stream Flow • Hydro-thermal Effects • Increased Water Temperature • Reduced Ice Cover • Longer Period of Thermal Stratification • Changes in Reservoir Water level and Residence Time • Reservoir Trophic Status • Changes in the Timing and Magnitude of Nutrient Inputs • Changes in the Nutrient Availability Due to Changes in Stratification and Mixing • Changes Phytoplankton Growth and Succession Due to Changes in Water Temperature and Light Extinction • Changes in Hypolimnetic Oxygen and Nutrients • Nutrient Loading Effects • Changes in the Frequency and Magnitude of Storm Events • Changes in the Timing of Nutrient Loading • Changes in Proportion of Surface Runoff • Changes in Watershed Biogeochemistry • Reservoir System Operation • Changes in Water Inputs • Changes in Water Loss (Spill) • Water Quality Related Restrictions on Use • Changes in System Operation Future Demand

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