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Winners and losers?

Susan J. Smith. Winners and losers?. How to share the gains and spread the risks of housing market dynamics. ‘Home ownership’ societies…. $. Analysis of BHPS and HILDA by Beverley Searle and Alice Stoakes. Owners who increased mortgage between 2001 and 2005.

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Winners and losers?

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  1. Susan J. Smith Winners and losers? How to share the gains and spread the risks of housing market dynamics

  2. ‘Home ownership’ societies… $

  3. Analysis of BHPS and HILDA by Beverley Searle and Alice Stoakes Owners who increased mortgage between 2001 and 2005 How much equity are households withdrawing (2003)?

  4. Banking on Housing; Spending the Home An asset to sell: ‘If we are in trouble, we could always sell … it’s reassuring’ [1 in 3] A resource to tap into to: ‘I value the fact that, if needs be, I can borrow more against it’ [1 in 5]; over half plan to spend part (1:3) or all (1:5) their housing wealth before they die An insurance as well as an investment: ‘I’d be scuppered if I had a major expenditure to fund without drawing on the mortgage’ [just under 1 in 2: income smoothing/welfare]

  5. Risky business? Capital/investment risks Credit risks

  6. Derivatives • Financial instruments (contracts) whose values derive from the price of an underlying asset or index • They can, however, be traded independently, so they are a means of transferring or managing market risk as well as an investment opportunity

  7. The value of derivatives trading (outstanding contracts) is $450 trillion Derivatives: The strange case of housing Housing, the world’s largest asset class, inspires nearly no derivatives trading at all

  8. The economic logic of housing derivatives • Housing is a major asset class, but is expensive to hold, slow and costly to trade, and has other complications. Major investment portfolios are under-exposed to housing (which is otherwise a good alternative investment) • Housing investors, in contrast, are over-exposed to property, vulnerable to price volatility and have no way to hedge.

  9. The social argument… • ‘Most long term economic risks… [are] borne by each individual or family alone… Many people live in relative poverty today because of a failure to control these risks’ (Shiller 2003) • The ‘human face’ of capitalism (Caplin et al. 2003) • How to improve the welfare of European housing consumers at practically no cost (Quigley 2005)

  10. Housing: services and investments ? $ $b $a = + Home (Sweet Home) Investment (Future price)

  11. A role for derivatives? • Savings gateway to home ownership (and labour mobility) • Improve affordability (lower entry costs) • Enhance sustainability (manage credit risks) • Portfolio rebalancing • Insure asset base for welfare (reduce investment risks) • Facilitate cost-effective equity release in older age

  12. False Start?London Futures & Options Exchange • Yesterday’s launch of a UK property futures market… previous attempts in Chicago, France and Sydney having failed (May 10 1991) • A predictably slow start (Aug 16 1991) • London Fox closes its property future market…(October 3 1991) [Reporting from the Financial Times]

  13. Housing (derivative) futures? Culture shift Index issues The right derivative?

  14. Consumer Aversion/ financial illiteracy

  15. How to hedge your bets • Spread-betting: ‘I don’t take unnecessary risks’ • Insurance: ‘Money down the drain’ • Hpi-linked savings account: ‘I can see the benefits of getting the property increases without risking your capital’… • London index: ‘If you lived in Salford, I think that would be a blinding idea’

  16. Reputational Risk ‘Market institutions are social constructions, artefacts which we may not have designed…but which we may properly alter and reform so that they better contribute to human aims’ John Gray (1992) Consumer Aversion/ financial illiteracy Political imagination? Ideas based Policy?

  17. Susan J. Smith Winners and losers? How to share the gains and spread the risks of housing market dynamics

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