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Forecasting Eruptions: Precursors and Phreatic Activity at Poás Volcano

This lecture discusses the forecasting of volcanic eruptions, focusing on precursors and phreatic activity at Poás Volcano. It explores case studies, such as Mt. St. Helens and Nevado del Ruiz, and examines the use of gas ratios and seismic data in prediction. The lecture concludes with future challenges in volcano forecasting.

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Forecasting Eruptions: Precursors and Phreatic Activity at Poás Volcano

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  1. Forecasting eruptions large and small10 April 2019

  2. Structure of the lecture 1. Precursors 2. Phreatic eruptions 3. Poás volcano phreatic-magmatic activity 4. Concluding thoughts

  3. Precursors to large eruptions

  4. Mt. St. Helens, 10 April 1980courtesy USGS

  5. Predicting magma volumes White and McCausland, 2016, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 309:139-155

  6. Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia

  7. Ruiz: North-south tomographic cross sections of Vp/Vs in 2000–2006 and 2015–2016 2000-2006 2015-2016 High Vp /Vs values may indicate the presence of fresh magma Londoño JM, Kumagai H (2018) J Volcanol Geotherm Res 358:105-123

  8. Nevado del Ruiz fault systems and 2000-2016 seismicity Londoño JM, Kumagai H (2018) J Volcanol Geotherm Res 358:105-123

  9. Turrialba, May 2016

  10. Carbon/sulfur ratios and SO2 fluxes, 2014-2015 De Moor et al., 2016, J. Geophys. Res. 121:5761-5775

  11. Mammoth Mountain, California

  12. Mammoth Mountain CO2/CH4 Chiodini G (2009) Geophys Res Lett 36:L02302

  13. Structure of the lecture 1. Precursors 2. Phreatic eruptions 3. Poás volcano phreatic-magmatic activity 4. Concluding thoughts

  14. Dealing with small, sudden events:phreatic eruptions Eruptions through crater lakes: Poás 2014 Rincón de la Vieja 2018 Poás 2018Ruapehu 1980 Vent-opening eruptions: Poás 2017Telica 2015Turrialba 2014 Ontake 2014

  15. Banded tremor, Nevado del Ruiz,7 September 1985 Martinelli B (1990) J Volcanol Geotherm Res 41:297–314

  16. Type 1 phreatic eruptions from overpressured hydrothermal systems Stix and De Moor (2018) Earth Planet Space 70:83

  17. Type 2 phreatic eruptions from crater lakes Stix and De Moor (2018) Earth Planet Space 70:83

  18. Magmatic-hydrothermal gases Stix and De Moor (2018) Earth Planet Space 70:83

  19. Structure of the lecture 1. Precursors 2. Phreatic eruptions 3. Poás volcano phreatic-magmatic activity 4. Concluding thoughts

  20. Poás volcano, Costa Rica

  21. Poás phreatic eruption

  22. Poás SO2 and CO2 fluxes, 2013-2018 phreatomagmatic eruption with juvenile magma ejected (first since the 1950’s) sporadic phreatic eruptions hydrothermal activity eruptions hydrothermal De Moor et al. (2019) Geophys Res Lett 46:1293–1302

  23. Poás gas ratios, 2013-2018 phreatomagmatic eruption Gas from lake Gas from fumaroles De Moor et al. (2019) Geophys Res Lett 46:1293–1302

  24. Structure of the lecture 1. Precursors 2. Phreatic eruptions 3. Poás volcano phreatic-magmatic activity 4. Concluding thoughts

  25. Simple approaches • A single long-period seismometer can capture the energy release of a volcano • A decent seismic network can provide data on Vp /Vs • Simple, cheap sensors can generate high quality gas ratios • SO2 fluxes can be calculated with miniaturized instrumentation (e.g., PiSpec)

  26. PiSpec: A product of 3D printing (cheap) Wilkes et al. (2017) Optics Lett 42:4323-4326

  27. Future challenges • Identify a reactivating volcano years in advance (rather than months) • Discover precursors for volcanoes that erupt with “no warning” (e.g., Ontake 2014) • Can isotopic signatures of plumes provide such information?

  28. Poás, Spring 2017

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