China Seminar Boulder, Colorado 2010

1. China SeminarBoulder, Colorado 2010 David Lampton John Hopkins University

2. Are American Days behind Us? • Is China the World next Superpower? • Power is moving from the U.S. to Asia- China. National Intelligence Report of 2008 (16 agencies agreed) • The U.S. will be less dominant, but not necessarily in a decline. • China is taking America’s jobs! • China sees the U.S on the decline, although less drastic than in Russia and our allies.

3. China does not want to be “ world leaders” or “police of the world.” • They want recognized as a powerful country & are very proud of their accomplishments! • They want to continue their own economic growth and development of their country!!

4. Powerful just like the United States! • Nuclear Power • Permanent Member of Security Council & Veto Power • !

5. Second Largest economy in the World!

6. Why is China considered to be the next World Superpower? • In last 25 years, China has moved 300 million people out of poverty & quadrupled the average person’s income • Exports to the U.S. increased by 1600% in past 15 years. • China is considered to be the “Workshop of the World”!

7. Industrial waste of the world! • China is making everything for the world- industrial world. • We outsourced all our jobs and outsourced all the pollution too! • They get the blame but they are suffering from pollution on their own population! (day in being video)

8. World’s largest army & largest pop- 1.3 billion

9. Largest army but still spends less then U.S. on military

10. Chinese government says they want a “Peaceful Rise”. • Will China use it’s power in a way that is constructive towards U.S., good chance but not guaranteed. • The U.S. national policy towards China will help to create either a positive or negative environment. • U.S. can influence China’s rise but not control it. • China has a present strategy that many say the U.S can learn from.

11. How do the Chinese think of power? TYPES OF POWER • Coercive (use of force) • Economic • Intellectual power (education, infrastructure & military) • China’s strategy- changing from coercive power and focus on using economic power and intelligence power. • China can stay focused on their goals because they have one party system! In a democracy leaders and plans change every few years or terms.

12. Coercive power- the U.S. used coercive power during the Cold War.As did China. • Deng changes form coercive power to economic power, which he believes will strengthen the other forms of power! • USSR today is still using coercive power.

13. What can the U.S. do? • Follow China’s strategy! • China has changed from focus on coercive power to focus on using economic power and intelligence power.

14. Results of China’s shift to economic power! • 30 years of successful growth which is predicted to continue for the next 20 years! • An average of 7-9% growth rate annually!

15. Middle Class Spending • The economic changes are building a middle class; the biggest in history- 300-350 million people are in middle class, when there was absolutely no middle class in 1978! • There are still a billion people in poverty and a growing gap between rich and poor.

16. Compared to U.S. Economic Growth

17. Economic Power • China starts out as a producer of goods, a seller • Chinese have also invested in the U.S. Chinese build wind farms in Nevada • They have bought U.S. government bonds, • Foreign exchange invested in the U.S.- #1 is China, #2 is Japan and #3 is England. The U.S. still owns most of its debt, but China is very invested as well.

18. Brain/Intellectual Power

19. Intellectual Power • Education • Chinese are sending more students to the west for training. • In 1978 the education was at the level of Cambodia • Chinese government has quadrupled education (for higher education); many new universities cities have been developed in just 1 decade. • The government has doubled the % of the GDP in research and development

21. Infrastructure

22. Intellectual Power! Infrastructure • Chinese government is using its money to invest in intelligent ways- infrastructure over military. • Major investments in railroad systems, luxurious train system. Investment in roads, and all other forms of transportation. • GDP- China’s debt is very low about 15% of GDP, the U.S. is much higher, 89-90% of debt. •  Major investments in Green Technology!!

23. China’s High Speed Train-Connect China to Europe!

24. Chinese Premier-Hu Jintao- 2004 • Harmonious Society • The State will do more for society, more social programs • In return, people should trust & support the govern. • Revitalization of philosophies & religions • Continues economic policies of Deng Xiaoping.

25. Top leaders in China are all engineers- -The MIT of China

26. Internet in China = political expression • 1997 Internet starts in China, by 2008 most internet users in the world! • Internet has created active citizenship participation-blogs, chat rooms- social mobilization • Internet is filtered, censored

27. Freedom of Expression? Sometimes? • Liu Xiaobo-Charter O8- calls for political reform. • Religion is still officially illegal, but is tolerated today as long as not a threat to CCP! • Falun Gong (religion)- 1999 CCP banned religion & began national crackdown.

28. Freedom of Expression • Nail House- Communist propaganda machine said don’t report on story, but bloggers got a hold of story and reported! • Xiamen protest- (industrial pollution)- river water pollutants. • 2008 Weng’an riots-alleged police cover-up of girls murder.