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Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler

On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries . Possessing natural resources makes things worse, unless there are plenty of them.

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Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler

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  1. On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries. Possessing natural resources makes things worse, unless there are plenty of them. Countries with larger populationshave higher risks of war and these wars last longer: greater attraction of secession. BUT: it is not ethno-linguistic fractionalisation as such which is damaging to societies but that degree of fractionalisationwhich most facilitates rebel coordination. Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler

  2. Key Findings of Collier & HoefflerGreed and Grievance in Civil War (2001) • All three grievance models have very low explanatory power • Opportunity as an explanation of conflict risk is consistent with the economic interpretation of rebellion as greed-motivated • Primary commodity exports • Foregone earnings • Cost of conflict-specific capital • Low density, low urbanisation • Large diaspora • Other significant variables: • Ethnic dominance • Democracy • “Time heals”

  3. Key Revisions by Ballentine • Varied impact of economic factors on: • Incidence of conflicts • Duration of conflicts • Intensity of conflicts • Economic factors matter, but quite possibly in different ways and to differing degrees  alternative explanations for Collier and Hoeffler’s findings

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