Water & Energy in the perspective of Climate Change Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

1. Water & Energy in the perspective of Climate Change Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN & Expert – FAO/UN Fellow, Andhra Pradesh Akademy of Sciences Convenor, Forum for a Sustainable Environment Tel. (040) 23550480; E-Mail: jeevananda_reddy@yahoo.com

2. World Water Day • World Water Day is a day to recognize the global need to save, conserve and manage water resources responsibly for future generation • World Water Day - 2014 relates this aspect to energy sector such as thermal, hydro, nuclear, bio-fuel, etc • 97% of the water on the Earth is saline and only 3% is freshwater and of this 0.3% is surface water and Of this 2% is in rivers; Large part of which enters oceans/seas

3. Per capita water availability in India Per capita water availability in India: Year Population Per capita (million) (cubic meter/year) 1951 361 5177 1955 395 4732 1991 846 2209 2001 1027 1820 2025 1394 1341 2050 1640 1140 Source: Government of India, 2009 Precipitation/snowfall forms freshwater, which is renewable, and form part of climate system & thus any change in climate impact water availability As river flows; In groundwater aquifers; In reservoirs & tanks

4. Climate change • Climate change has two components • Natural inbuilt variation component • Irregular – inter-seasonal & inter-annual • Rhythmic variations – cyclic variations • Man-induced component • Ecological changes – changes in land use & land cover – heat-island & cold-island effects • Global warming – anthropogenic greenhouse gases • Man’s physical actions

5. Global warming • The term “Global Warming” refers to the increase in the average temperature of global surface air and oceans since about 1950, and to continuing increases in those temperatures • IPCC states that -- AR4 – 2007 -- confirms that global warming is now “unequivocal” and states with more than 90% certainty that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activity “very likely” has been the primary cause of rising temperatures worldwide since 1950 • In AR5-2013, 90% and “very likely” are changed to 95-100% and “extremely likely”

6. Global warming • Continued -- • Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes • It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcing together • Natural variability plays the main role

7. Precipitation vs temperature

9. US Academy of Sciences & British Royal Society report

10. Lacunae in data • Over-estimation • Heat-island effect -- urbanization • Dense network • Under-estimation • Cold-island effect – irrigated agriculture • Sparse network • Unit of measurements changed in 1957 • Averaging, 33.45 as 33.5 and 33.35 as 33.3 • Met stations are in dilapidated condition

11. Importance of Cold-island effect

12. global warming is insignificant to change monsoon system? • Though the global warming component is insignificant to influence monsoons in India, the natural variability in precipitation and snowfall affect the water availability in space and time. This must be taken into account while planning water use and energy production • However, human activity affects directly or indirectly the precipitation and snowfall occurrences under natural variability • Let us see the veracity of these observation!!!

13. Annual march of all-India Southwest Monsoon Precipitation – 60 years cycle

14. Frequency of occurrence of floods in few northwest Indian Rivers Frequency of high magnitude floods River Period Frequency Climatic cycle Chenab 1962-1990 1 in 9 years (a) Below the average cycle 1990-1998 1 in 3 years (b) Above the average cycle Ravi 1963-1990 1 in 14 years (a) 1990-1998 1 in 3 years (b) Beas 1941-1990 1 in 8 years (a) 1990-1995 1 in 2 years (b) State of Environment Report, India – 2009, MoEF / GoI : The frequency of floods in India is largely due to deforestation in the catchment area, destruction of surface vegetation, changes in land use, increased urbanization and other developmental activities -- false

17. Annual march of annual precipitation of AP- 132 years cycle

18. Averages and extremes in precipitation of the three sub-divisions of Andhra Pradesh Season Precipitation, mm Mean/CV(%)Lowest/year Highest/year Coastal Andhra SWM 507/22.2 308.5/1888 780.3/1978 NEM 375/38.8 87.9/1909 702.7/1994 Annual 971/19.8 532.0/1891 1501.5/1990 Rayalaseema SWM 422/28.8 192.4/1904 791.0/1878 NEM 204/41.9 12.0/1876 455.5/1946 Annual 709/21.6 225.7/1876 1228.3/1874 Telangana SWM 722/23.5 371.4/1877 1186.0/1988 NEM 107/60.3 2.0/1988 309.8/1987 Annual 899/21.7 489.0/1920 1485.2/1893  Note: Based on the data series of 1871 to 1994; SWM = Southwest Monsoon, NEM = Northeast Monsoon

20. Political effect on water availability • I sent a letter to CJ of SC to consider suo-motto PIL on Krishna River water tribunal to reject the award & take action on the three judges of the tribunal under Quid-Pro-Co • It is a highly technical fraud – the path of data manipulation was used to favor Karnataka • Used five different parts of 114 years data series available at that time to prove different pre-conceived notions/objectives instead of one uniform data set like the previous tribunal • 1894-95 to 1971-72 – 75% probability -- Bachawat • 1961-62 to 2007-08 -- mean [2578 TMC; 58% probability] – Brijesh Kumar • 1981-82 to 2006-07 – Almatti/mean [2830 TMC; 30% probability] • 2006-07 – 65% probability • 1941-42 to 2007-08 – water used in delta area of AP

21. Precipitation in AP & water availability in Krishna River

23. Technical Fraud Data series Deficit Surplus Mean = 2578 TMC % years • According to DS-2 42 58 • According to DS-3 58.5 41.5 • According to DS-1 66 34 With the 270 TMC of additional water allocation to projects/ Almatti Dam in Karnataka – mean has gone up from 2578 TMC to 2830 TMC with this and thus % years changed as: • According to DS-2 70 30 • According to DS-3 75 25 • According to DS-1 79 21 DS-2 = 1961-62 to 2007-08; DS-1 = 1894-95 to 1971-72; DS-3 = 1894-95 to 2007-08

24. Water availability to AP Above the average RainfallAbove + below the average period [DS-3] rainfall period Prob % TMC less Cumulative less Cumulative % years % years % %years % years DS-1 75 2130 25 [811] 25 75 25 25 DS-2 65 2293 10 [856] 35 55 20 45 DS-2 58 2578 07[1005] 42 41.5 13.5 58.5 [mean] DS-2 30 2830 28[1005] 70 25 16.5 75 [mean]

25. DEMAND AND USES Demand for water in India is expected to rise drastically to about 833 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2025 and 899 BCM in 2050. At present, water demand stands at 712 BCM.

27. power production scenario in India Growth of installed capacity in India (mw) As on Thermal Nuclear Hydel Renewal Total 31-12-1947 854 - 508 - 1,362 31-12-1990 43,763 1,561 18,307 - 63,636 31-12-2013 159,794 4,780 39,893 29,463 233,930 On 31-11-2011 of the total 710,673 MW, Domestic used 21.56% Commercial 8.96% Industrial 45.23% Agriculture 18.16%

28. Renewable energy scenario in India • In the past ten years, installation of Renewable energy for electricity has grown at an annual rate of 25% • It has reached 30,000 MW as of January 2014 • During this time wind power installation has grown by ten times and solar energy has grown from nothing to 2.500 MW

29. Efficiency of water utilization • The ratio of water consumption and economic value creation in Indian industry is poor • For every cubic meter of water that Indian industry uses, it generates merely US$ 7.5 economic productivity [World Bank, 2001] • Thermal power plant in India on an average consumes 80 m3/mwh while the global best is less than 10 m3/mwh

30. Current water usage Sector Current water Usage in % World Europe Africa India Agriculture 69 33 88 83 Industry 23 54 05 12 Domestic 08 13 07 05 Year Future water usage Billion liters/dayliters/day Agriculture Industry Domestic Total Per capita India/ 2000 1658 115 093 1866 089 2050 1745 441 227 2413 167 China/2000 1024 392 105 1521 083 2050 1151 822 219 2192 155 USA/ 2000 0542 605 166 1313 583 2050 0315 665 187 1167 485

31. Sector-wise water consumption and projections in India Source Consumption in bcm /(%) 1990 2010 2025 2050 Irrigation 460 536 688 1008 88.6% 77.3% 73.0% 70.9% Industry + Energy 34 41.6 80 143 6.6% 6.0% 8.5% 10.1% Total [including others] 519 693 942 1422 Note 1: Different agencies have presented different percentages Note 2: Each liter of wastewater discharged further pollutes about 5-8 liters of water, which raises the share of industrial water use to somewhere between 35 to 50% of the total water used in the country and not 7-8% Industry very rarely use the wastewater in place of fresh water

32. Under restrictions, a Mumford, Tex., farm on the Brazos River could not draw water from it, while cities and power plants could. Credit Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times

33. Brandon McCullers of Austin, Tex., gardening. Many complain that city residents have made few sacrifices. Credit Ilana Panich-Linsman for The New York Times

34. The Freeport, Tex., plant of the Dow Chemical Company, whose water rights were honored when river levels dipped. Credit Michael Stravato for The New York Times

35. Water demand by Energy plants • The international Energy Agency (IEA) projects water demand for energy to double by 2035 – • coal based uses 50%; bio-fuel uses 30%; • oil & natural gas uses 10%; nuclear uses 5% • Water consumption increases from 66 billion cubic meters [bcm) today to 135 bcm annually • It is expected by 2035 the power production share: • Coal -- to come down from 56.7% to 51.9%; • Bio-fuel -- increases from 17.9% to 30.4% • Oil & natural gas -- comes down from 14.9% to 10.4% • Nuclear -- no significant change

36. Coal based power plants • IEA states that water consumption for coal energy would jump 84%, from 38 to 70 bcm annually by 2035 • After coal power, bio-fuels are on track to cause the largest share of water stress in the energy sysyems of the future, in IEA’s view • The agency anticipates a 242% increase in water consumption for bio-fuel production by 2035, from 12 bcm to 41 bcm annually by 2035

37. Caution on water use statistics • In India, there are no accurate estimates of water consumption by the industrial sector and thus different agencies report different figures of water use by the industrial sector as % of the total freshwater withdrawals in India: • according to the Ministry of Water Resources it is around 6% • According to the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) reports it is around 8% • According to the World Bank it is around 13% • The water demand for industrial uses and energy production will grow at a rate of 4.2 % per year, rising from 67 bcm in 1999 to 228 bcm by 2025 • All these estimates reveal that the industrial water demand is not negligible in India and that it is bound to grow in the coming years

38. Wastewater usage • According to Centre for Science & Environment in its 2004 report, on an average, each liter of wastewater discharged further pollutes about 5–8 liters of water which raises the share of industrial water use to somewhere between 35–50% of the total water used in the country, and not the 7–8% that is considered as the industrial water use • Polluted water is very rarely used by industries • The future demand will inevitably put pressure on the available freshwater resources, both due to water consumption and water pollution • To add to this, India scores poorly in terms of industrial water productivity which at US$ 3.42 m3 , is among the lowest in the world

39. Concluding remarks • It takes a great deal of energy to supply water, and a great deal of water to supply energy. Thus, energy and water are tightly entwined. Saving the energy saves water • Though the global warming component is insignificant to influence monsoons in India, the natural variability in precipitation and snowfall affect the water availability in space and time. Also, this is affected by human action at local and regional scale. This must be taken into account while planning water use and energy production • There must be pool-proof mechanism at national and states level that will not affect the water availability due to political interference • There is a need to get correct picture of water consumption in industrial sector as well other sectors

40. Concluding remarks • Indian industry must look for efficient method of reducing the water consumption in coal based thermal power production and avoid bio-fuel based energy production • With the passing of time completion for water among sectors will increase, more particularly during drought years. • It is time to move to renewal energy using wind and solar and hydropower projects to save water as well protect the water from imminent threat from pollution • Through saving of energy, we can also save water

41. Concluding remarks • In order to achieve the goal of WWD ‘save, conserve and manage’ water resources globally responsibly for future generation with respect to power sector, it is proposed: • save energy & reduce transmission & distribution and other losses • replace thermal power in water heating in industry by solar water heating • reduce in consumption & harness exhaust gases and waste streams through technological inventions; • reuse wastewater • encourage renewable energy production

42. Thank You