Air Force Weather Tropical Cyclone Preparedness and Response

1. Air Force Weather Tropical Cyclone Preparedness and Response Brig Gen David L. Johnson Director of Weather Headquarters USAF

2. Overview • Air Force Weather (AFW) • What we do; core processes • A key component of the national weather system • Air Force and Army exposure to tropical cyclone threat • Air Force tropical cyclone preparedness • Air Force tropical cyclone response U.S. Air Force Photo

3. But… we can’t do our mission if our forces have been damaged or destroyed by a tropical cyclone. Percentage 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 What we do Air Force and Army Terrestrial Weather Space Weather Climatology Ensuring DoD Operators can “Exploit the Weather” for Battle

4. TAILORING FORECASTING Core processes ALL ARE KEY TO PERFORMING OUR MISSION: ANALYSIS DATA COLLECTION DISSEMINATION

5. ! Academia Private NAVY NWS AFW AFW’s national role Tailoring Forecasting Dissemination Analysis Data Collection

6. AFW’s national role • Tropical cyclone reconnaissance in Pacific region; AF Weather Agency (AFWA) provides satellite fixes • Partnered with Navy in Joint Typhoon Warning Center, protecting US Government interests in Pacific region, Indian Ocean, westward to east coast of Africa • 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron (AF Reserve Command) provides aerial reconnaissance • AFWA provides regional forecast models worldwide • AFW personnel collect vital data in tropical cyclone affected areas around the globe

7. A continuing role... • Participation in the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) • First launch ~2010 • Multi-spectral imaging and sounding -- improved tropical cyclone reconnaissance • Co-sponsor of National Research Council study on future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D (NEXRAD) • Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model • Fully coupled with land and sea surface, high resolution, improved physics, improved data assimilation • Tool for track and intensity forecasting

8. Tropical cyclone threat US Air Force - 27 major installations, 450,000+ airmen, civilians, family members US Army - 22 major installations, 635,000+ soldiers, civilians, family members

9. Guam Tropical cyclone threat 12 major AF and Army installations and the Fleet threatened by typhoons 100,000+ airmen, soldiers, sailors, marines, civilians, and their family members NOAA Photo

10. National Hurricane Operations Plan (OFCM) HURCON Preparing ourselves U.S. Air Force Photo • Growing Forecasters, building expertise • Graduate education, formal training • Improving operational techniques Take the following actions... • Base/Post-level preparation • Detailed plans • Pre-season exercises • Education - base/post newspaper & TV

11. Helping others prepare Carrying the hurricane awareness message to leaders and citizens Airshows Media Flights U.S. Air Force Photos

12. Response - forecasting • AFWA regional model predictions • Send track and intensity forecasts to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) • Available to TPC/NHC for consideration--additional integration this summer • Forecasts and warns for all US Government interests from pole to pole • Where TPC/NHC provides official track and intensity forecast, AFW provides tailored forecasts for bases/posts and other AF and Army decision makers

13. Response - disseminating • AFWA provides gridded forecast information to various agencies, particularly for inland flooding • US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geological Survey, Korean Meteorological Agency • Joint AF/Army Weather Information Network • Bases and Posts • Base cable TV, radio, telephone, security forces, loudspeakers across installation • Point weather warnings via phone, fax, pager to locations without dedicated weather team • Tailored to specific location and decision maker

14. Local response • HURCON 4: 72 hrs prior to 50 kt winds • Essential personnel report for duty, unit control centers open, general preparations, prepare aircraft to evacuate, loose outdoor items moved inside • HURCON 3: 48 hrs prior to 50 kt winds • Shelters prepared, sandbags and plywood in place, food and water in place • High value equipment sheltered/covered • Begin aircraft evacuation, if appropriate

15. Local response • HURCON 2: 24 hrs prior to 50 kt winds • Curtail non-essential activities, evacuate non-essential personnel if appropriate, shelters are ready, continue evacuation of aircraft if not complete, shelter non-essential vehicles • HURCON 1: 12 hrs prior to 50 kt winds • People report to shelters and evacuation completed, airfield closed, shelter emergency vehicles, possibly cut off electricity

16. On the horizon • Weather effects decision aids • High resolution wind forecasting with MM5 or WRF for input into storm surge models • Improving satellite analysis techniques • WC-130J for 53rd Wx Recon Squadron • NPOESS era beginning in ~2010 • Future radar capabilities beyond WSR-88D SeaWIFs-Orbimage

17. Summary It takes the national weather TEAM to protect the lives and property of our citizens!