MGMT 276: Statistical Inference in Management Fall, 2013

1. MGMT 276: Statistical Inference in ManagementFall, 2013 Welcome

2. Use this as your study guide By the end of lecture today9/5/13 Single versus Double Blind Studies Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio Categorical vs Numerical (Quantitative vs Qualitative) Field observation/naturalistic research Time series design vs. Cross sectional design

3. Announcements Notetakers Name Major email phone #

4. Remember bring your writing assignment forms notebook and clickers to each lecture A noteon doodling Talking or whispering to your neighbor can be a problem for us – please consider writing short notes. Complete this in the next two weeks and receive extra credit! (By September 12th, 2013)

5. Please click in My last name starts with a letter somewhere between A. A – D B. E – L C. M – R D. S – Z

6. Homework due - (September 10th) On class website: please print and complete homework worksheet #1 Remember to hold onto homework until we have a chance to cover it Please double check – Allcell phones other electronic devices are turned off and stowed away

7. Schedule of readings Before next exam: Please read chapters 1 - 4 & Appendix D & E in Lind Please read Chapters 1, 5, 6 and 13 in Plous Chapter 1: Selective Perception Chapter 5: Plasticity Chapter 6: Effects of Question Wording and Framing Chapter 13: Anchoring and Adjustment

8. So far, Measurement: observable actions Theoretical constructs: concepts (like “humor” or “satisfaction”) Operational definitions Validity and reliability Independent and dependent variable Random assignment and Random sampling Within-participant and between-participant design Single blind (placebo) and double blind procedures

9. Duration Continuous versus discrete Continuous variable: Variables that can assume any value. There are (in principle) an infinite number of values between any two numbers Discrete variable: Variables that can only assume whole numbers. There are no intermediate values between the whole numbers Distance Number of kids Height Number of eggs in a carton Number of textbooks required for class

10. Categorical versus Numerical data Categorical data (also called qualitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a word or a number that represents a class or category Numerical data (also called quantitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a number that represents an amount or count

11. Categorical data (also called qualitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a word or a number that represents a class or category Numerical data (also called quantitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a number that represents an amount or count Handedness - right handed or left handed Family size Hair color Ethnic group GPA Age Yearly salary Breed of dog Gender - male or female Temperature Please note this is a binary variable

12. Categorical data (also called qualitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a word or a number that represents a class or category Numerical data (also called quantitative data) - a set of observations where any single observation is a number that represents an amount or count On a the top half of a writing assignment form please generate two examples of categorical data and two examples of numerical data Please note we’ll use the bottom half for something else

13. What are the four “levels of measurement”? Categorical data • Nominal data - classification, differences in kind, names of categories • Ordinal data - order, rankings, differences in degree Numerical data • Interval data - measurable differences in amount, equal intervals • Ratio data - measurable differences in amount with a “true zero”

14. What are the four “levels of measurement”? Categorical data • Nominal data - classification, differences in kind, names of categories • Ordinal data - order, rankings, differences in degree Numerical data • Interval data - measurable differences in amount, equal intervals • Ratio data - measurable differences in amount with a “true zero” Gender - male or female Family size Jersey number Place in a foot race (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc) Handedness - right handed or left handed

15. What are the four “levels of measurement”? Categorical data • Nominal data - classification, differences in kind, names of categories • Ordinal data - order, rankings, differences in degree Numerical data • Interval data - measurable differences in amount, equal intervals • Ratio data - measurable differences in amount with a “true zero” Age Hair color Telephone number Ethnic group Breed of dog Temperature Yearly salary

16. Please note : page 29 in text

17. What are the four “levels of measurement”? Categorical data • Nominal data - classification, differences in kind, names of categories • Ordinal data - order, rankings, differences in degree Numerical data • Interval data - measurable differences in amount, equal intervals • Ratio data - measurable differences in amount with a “true zero” Look at your examples of qualitative and quantitative data. Which levels of measurement are they?

19. Descriptive vs inferential statistics Descriptive statistics - organizing and summarizing data Inferential statistics - generalizing beyond actual observations making “inferences” based on data collected

20. Descriptive or inferential? Descriptive statistics - organizing and summarizing data Inferential statistics - generalizing beyond actual observations making “inferences” based on data collected What is the average height of the basketball team? Measured all of the players and reported the average height Measured only a sample of the players and reported the average height for team In this class, percentage of students who support the death penalty? Measured all of the students in class and reported percentage who said “yes” Measured only a sample of the students in class and reported percentage who said “yes” Based on the data collected from the students in this class we can conclude that 60% of the students at this university support the death penalty Measured all of the students in class and reported percentage who said “yes”

21. Descriptive or inferential? Descriptive statistics - organizing and summarizing data Inferential statistics - generalizing beyond actual observations making “inferences” based on data collected Men are in general taller than women Measured all of the citizens of Arizona and reported heights Shoe size is not a good predictor of intelligence Measured all of the shoe sizes and IQ of students of 20 universities Blondes have more fun Asked 500 actresses to complete a happiness survey The average age of students at the U of A is 21 Asked all students in the fraternities and sororities their age

22. Descriptive vs inferential statistics Descriptive statistics - organizing and summarizing data Inferential statistics - generalizing beyond actual observations making “inferences” based on data collected To determine this we have to consider the methodologies used in collecting the data

23. Time series versus cross-sectional comparisons: Trends over time versus a snapshot comparison Time series design: Each observation represents a measurement at some point in time. Repeated measurements allow us to see trends. Cross-sectional design: Each observation represents a measurement at some point in time. Comparing across groups allows us to see differences. Traffic accidents Please note: Any one piece of data can often (not always) be used in either a time series comparison or a cross-sectional comparison. It depends how you set up your question. Does Tucson or Albuquerque have more traffic accidents (they have similar population sizes)? Does Tucson have more traffic accidents as the year ends and winter approaches?

24. Time series versus cross-sectional comparisons: Trends over time versus a snapshot comparison Time series design: Each observation represents a measurement at some point in time. Repeated measurements allow us to see trends. Cross-sectional design: Each observation represents a measurement at some point in time. Comparing across groups allows us to see differences. Unemployment rate Is there an increase in workers calling in sick as the summer months approach? Do more young workers call in sick than older workers? Grade point average (GPA) Does GPA tend to go up or down as students move from freshman to sophomores to juniors to seniors? Does GPA tend to go up or down when you compare Mr. Chen’s class with Mr. Frank’s Freshman English classes?

25. Let’s try one A study explored whether eating carrots really improves vision. Half of the subjects ate a package of carrots everyday for 3 months while the other group did not. Then, they tested the vision for all of the subjects. The independent variable in this study was a. the performance of the subjects on the vision exam b. the subjects who ate the carrots c. whether or not the subjects ate the carrots d. whether or not the subjects had their vision tested

26. Let’s try one A study explored whether eating carrots really improves vision. Half of the subjects ate a package of carrots everyday for 3 months while the other group did not. Then, they tested the vision for all of the subjects. The dependent variable in this study was a. the performance of the subjects on the vision exam b. the subjects who ate the carrots c. whether or not the subjects ate the carrots d. whether or not the subjects had their vision tested

27. Let’s try one A study explored whether eating carrots really improves vision. Half of the subjects ate a package of carrots everyday for 3 months while the other group did not. Then, they tested the vision for all of the subjects. This experiment was a a. within participant experiment b. between participant experiment c. mixed participant experiment d. non-participant experiment

28. Let’s try one When Martiza was preparing her experiment, she knew it was important that the participants not know which condition they were in, to avoid bias from the subjects. This is called a _____ study. She also was careful that the experimenters who were interacting with the participants did not know which condition those participants were in. This is called a ____ study. a. between participant; within participant b. within participant; between participant c. double blind design; single blind d. single blind; double blind design

29. Let’s try one A measurement that has high validity is one that a. measures what it intends to measure b. will give you similar results with each replication c. will compare the performance of the same subjects in each experimental condition d. will compare the performance of different subjects in each experimental condition

30. Let’s try one A study explored whether conservatives or liberals had more bumper stickers on their cars. The researchers ask 100 activists to complete a conservative/liberal values test, then used those results to categorize them as liberal or conservative. Then they identified the 30 most conservative activists and the 30 most liberal activists and measured how many bumper stickers each activist had on their car. The independent variable in this study was a. the performance of the activists b. the number of bumper stickers found on their car c. political status of participant (liberal versus conservative) as determined by their performance on the liberal/conservative test d. whether or not the subjects had bumper stickers on their car

31. Let’s try one A study explored whether conservatives or liberals had more bumper stickers on their cars. The researchers asked 100 activists to complete a conservative/liberal values test, then used those results to categorize them as liberal or conservative. Then they identified the 30 most conservative activists and the 30 most liberal activists and measured how many bumper stickers each activist had on their car. The dependent variable in this study was a. the performance of the activists b. the number of bumper stickers found on their car c. political status of participant (liberal versus conservative) as determined by their performance on the liberal/conservative test d. whether or not the subjects had bumper stickers on their car

32. Let’s try one A study explored whether conservatives or liberals had more bumper stickers on their cars. The researchers 100 activists to complete a conservative/liberal values test, then used those results to categorize them as liberal or conservative. Then they identified the 30 most conservative activists and the 30 most liberal activists and measured how many bumper stickers each activist had on their car. This study was a a. within participant experiment b. between participant experiment c. mixed participant experiment d. non-participant experiment

33. Let’s try one A study explored whether conservatives or liberals had more bumper stickers on their cars. They had 100 activists complete liberal/conservative test. Then, they split the 100 activists into 2 groups (conservatives and liberals). They then measured how many bumper stickers each activist had on their car. This study used a a. true experimental design b. quasi-experiment design c. correlational design d. mixed design

34. Writing Assignment – Pop Quiz Ari conducted a watermelon seed spitting experiment. She wanted to know if people can spit farther if they get a running start. She tested 100 people. She randomly assigned them into one of two groups. One group stood still on the starting line and spit their watermelon seeds as far as they could. The second group was allowed to run up to the starting line before they spit their watermelon seeds. She measured how far each person spit their watermelon seeds. Please answer the following questions 1. What is the independent variable? 2. The independent variable: Is it continuous or discrete? 3. The independent variable: Is it nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio? 4. What is the dependent variable? 5. The dependent variable: Is it continuous or discrete? 6. The dependent variable: Is it nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio? 7. Is this a quasi or true experiment? 8. Is this a within or between participant design 9. Is this a single blind, double blind or not at all blind experiment? 10. Be sure to put your name and CID on this page

35. Thank you! See you next time!!