Murder on the Orient Express A mystery of Modern Man

2. Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern Man Prof. Aldwyn Cooper ALT Meeting Reading 27th October 2005

3. Clarke's First Law When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.’ Arthur C. Clarke ‘When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right.

6. Introducing the Cast • The Urgent Call • The Commotion in the night • Examining the Corpse • Stuck in the snowdrift • Breaking Free • An unscheduled stop • Using the Little Grey Cells • Safe Arrival

8. Robert Reich

9. The Urgent Call “It doesn’t matter whether you are in a developed or developing nation, the drivers of the future are: • Globalisation • Demographics • Technology A nation’s wealth is its people and the respect that is shown by and to them. Prof. Robert Reich, Brandeis University and UC Berkeley Secretary for Labor to Clinton Administration

10. Globalisation • The Poverty of Protectionism • The Importance of Internationalisation • The Increasing value of research and education • The Educational Export Market Models • Internationalisation - a Backlash ? • Economic Drivers

11. Demographics • Shift in World populations • Increased economic pressures • Developed nation baby boomers • The age imbalance black hole • Growing Teacher Shortage worldwide

12. Technology • Technology is an irresistible driver • Technology is an enabler • e-Education offers options for efficiency gains, real learner support and customer care • Content Management • Disaggregated systems

13. The Commotion in the Night

14. New technologyThe Current Reality There has been no real productivity growth acceleration in the 99 percent of the [US] economy located outside the sector which manufactures computer hardware................ Indeed, far from exhibiting a productivity acceleration, the productivity slowdown in manufacturing has gotten worse; when computers are stripped out of the durable manufacturing sector, there has been a further productivity slowdown in durable manufacturing in 1995-00 as compared to 1972- 95, and no acceleration at all in non-durable manufacturing. ‘Beyond the Digital Economy’ Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

15. Being Digital or Being Wise The concepts of “knowledge economy” and “knowledge worker” are based on the view that information and knowledge are at the centre of economic growth and development. The ability to produce and use information effectively is thus a vital source of skills for many individuals. OECD 2000.

16. Being Digital or Being Wise Much attention has been devoted to digital technologies, a more fundamental change at the start of the new millennium is the increasing importance of knowledge for economic prosperity and the emergence of a learning society. ‘Technological Forecasting & Social Change’ Conceição et al. (2001),

17. Growth in the KBI sector Knowledge-based industries include high level services and the high and medium-high technology manufacturing sectors, the gradual transition towards knowledge-based economies has intensified in the last part of the 20th century. According to the OECD more than 50% of the OECD countries’ GDP is associated with knowledge-based industries. It is asserted that the intensity of the acceleration of knowledge creation and diffusion requires a more dynamic characterization and that we should speak about the emergence of a learning society.

18. UK Knowledge Industry growth

19. Education Environment Energy Electronics Engineering Media Medicine Management Agriculture Biotechnology Global Knowledge Need

20. Identifying Priorities Fundamentally, for a real learning economy, the performance of knowledge-rich competitive environments depend on the quality of human resources (their skills, competencies, education level, learning capability) and on the activities that exploit the generation and diffusion of knowledge.In a context of globalization, the development of research and education agendas on technology policy , the management of innovation and communication of knowledge are critical. ‘Beyond the Digital Economy’ Conceicao, Gibson, Heitor & Sirilli

21. World Investment in Higher Education

22. Examining the Corpse

23. Status Quo - present trends continue • Polarisation between HE systems with a divergence between Anglo Saxon systems (increasingly global) and others. • World skills continue to be most important policy approaches in transnational education but revenue generating approaches continue to gain in importance. • National system of quality assurance, accreditation and recognition of qualification and immigration policies will play a leading role in regulating international mobility. Trade agreements will play a secondary role. Very Unlikely

24. Three Globalisation Scenarios • The Competition Scenario • The South Africa Scenario • The Backlash Scenario

25. The Competition Scenario • US regains ground and organises effectively • Australia and New Zealand continue their rise • New international entrants offer low cost access including Russia, India and China • Additional private sector supply including University of Phoenix, Laureate, Career Education Corporation • New entrants to the FE and HE market

26. The South Africa Scenario • Pre 2000, unrestrained foreign and private activity • Climate of suspicion and profiteering • Imposition of branch model and anti franchising • Foreign provider numbers fell drastically • Regulatory tightening • Rising domestic supplier and export • League table laws.

27. The Backlash Scenario • Rising UK domestic fees • Demand exceeds supply • Value for money concerns • Domestic HEIs increase quality supply • Governments concerned at skill loss • Perception that non UK students favoured for financial reasons • Foreign students object to ghettoes

28. New Competition • Competition from HE in emerging countries will grow – China and India might become major first providers of transnational education. • Student mobility to OECD countries becomes increasingly elitist. • Slower growth in cross border mobility of students to OECD countries but increased mobility of academic staff, programmes and providers. • Trade agreements play an important role in regulating transnational higher education. • It become increasingly difficult for Western governments to regulate their HE systems as they become increasingly independent of state funding.

29. Stuck in the Snowdrift

30. I’ve seen the past and it worked! • National Development Programme in Computer assisted learning (1973 – 77) • Manpower Services commission ‘Tech’ project (1980s) • Development of European Learning Through Technological Advance (DELTA 1988 - 2000)

31. Seymour Papert Donald Norman Patrick Suppes B.F.Skinner Al Bork David Merrill Marvin Minsky I’ve seen the past and it worked!

32. Clarke's Prediction About Fanatics! ‘Fanatics are always followed by fools, of which there is an inexhaustible supply.’ John D. Clarke

33. Breaking free

34. The Pressures of the Present • Technology • Expectations • Efficiency • Exigency • Economics

35. I’ve seen the future and it works!

36. www.obhe.ac.uk

37. An Unscheduled Stop

38. Safe Arrival

39. Integration, coordination, data, evaluation Route to competitive Advantage Integrated development / commercial agenda Narrow / unclear agenda Isolation, uncoordinated, minimal data, no impact assessment Developing competitive advantage Competitive Innovative Potential Majority of UK provision still here.

40. Government & European Strategy University Collaboration National Staff Development Co-ordination Market Centred Approach Quality Assurance & Research Student Services, Customer Service Centre Rights Management Inter- operability Strategic Approach

41. Use the little grey cells !

42. Time for revolution • This is not change, it is paradigm shift. • T.S. Kuhn has shown that when scientific paradigms can no longer support the evidence a revolution takes place. • Revolutions are slow to build but then are swift and savage. • Strength alone is not enough - teamwork and knowledge of the terrain is paramount. • Only the bold and fleet of foot will survive.

43. Clark’s Fourth Law Every revolutionary idea passes through three stages of reaction: • 1. It is completely impossible. Don't waste my time. • 2. It is possible, but not worth doing. • 3. I said it was a good idea all along. Arthur C. Clarke

44. Fear of the future • Failures of imagination • Failures of courage • Arthur C. Clarke

45. Murder on the Orient ExpressA mystery of Modern ManEND