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Okada Akira Tokyo City University

Why Did CO 2 Emissions from Road Passenger Vehicles in Japan Decrease? A Decomposition and Positive Analysis. Okada Akira Tokyo City University. Background. Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from road transportation have been increasing since 1990.

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Okada Akira Tokyo City University

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  1. Why Did CO2Emissions from Road Passenger Vehicles in Japan Decrease? A Decomposition and Positive Analysis Okada Akira Tokyo City University

  2. Background • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions from road transportation have been increasing since 1990. • However, CO2 emission from transportation in some countries, such as Japan, Germany, France etc., have begun decreasing. • This study mainly focuses on Japan.

  3. Background All passenger transportation Passenger vehicle CO2 emissions (million tons) All freight transportation Truck Source: National GHGs Inventory Report of JAPAN

  4. Purposes of this research • This research identifies the factors that influenced the growth rate of CO2 emissions from passenger road transportation in the last two decades in Japan. • This research also attempts to ascertain the type of variables that are related to these factors using econometric analysis. • Economic and demographic variables • Trend of factors affecting the CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles changed in 2002 • Some factors are quadratically related to the economic and demographic factors such as income per capita and share of aged people.

  5. Decomposition of factors influencing CO2 emission E: Energy L: Travel Distance N: Number of car ownership POP: Population • Kaya Identity for passenger vehicle • Eq.1 can be differentiated with respect to time. (1) (2)

  6. Factors influencing CO2 emission Et per Lt Lt per Nt Fuel Economy (kcal/km) Average travel distance per car (km/per vehicle) Nt per POPt Level of car ownership (vehicles/1000 person) data period 1987-2007

  7. Factors behind the change in the CO2 emissions from passenger transport 1988-2007 Rate of change (%)

  8. Econometric analysis • What kind of variables affect each factor of CO2 emission? • This analysis applies the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) frame work through panel data in Japan • The unbalanced panel data are drawn from MLIT’s statistics

  9. Nine District Transportation Bureaus (DTB) Until 2001 After 2002 Hokkaido Hokkaido Hokuriku- Shinetsu Tohoku Tohoku Nigata Chugoku Chugoku Kanto Kanto Kyusyu Chubu Kyusyu Chubu Kinki Kinki Shikoku Shikoku

  10. Changes in CO2 emission per capita from passenger vehicles CO2 emissions per capita (kg-CO2 per capita) data period: 1987-2007

  11. Relationship between CO2 emissions per capita and income per capita CO2 emissions per capita (kg-CO2 per capita) Income per capita (10,000 yen) data period: 1987-2007

  12. Relationship between CO2 per capita and share of aged population CO2 emissions per capita (kg-CO2 per capita) Share of aged population (%) data period: 1987-2007

  13. Econometric specifications • Second-difference model (3) (4) (5) GPDI: Gross prefectural domestic income,Elder: elderly population, Gas: gasoline price, i: district number, t: time, β: parameter Δ: difference operator, ε: error term Predicted sign:

  14. Estimation Method • Since estimation of equations have a serial correlation of error terms, their parameters are calculated using an iterated Cochrane-Orcutt estimation. • Almost variables follow an I(2) process • Although squaring logarithm of I(2) process issue, the second-order difference in variables follows I(0) process • Pooled OLS

  15. Empirical results: Parameters in Equation 3-5 : coefficient of AR(1)-AR(3); *: Exceeds the 5 percent threshold; **: Exceeds the 1 percent threshold.

  16. Discussions • Improvement of fuel efficiency after 2002 may be associated with stagnation of income. • The share of aged people in Japan surpassed 17 percent in 2000. The decline in growth rate of the level of car ownership is linked with the increase in the share of elderly. • Result of econometric analysis implies a possibility of inverted-U shape relationship between the share of elderly and the CO2 emissions per capita from passenger vehicles.

  17. Conclusions • The factors affecting the CO2 emissions from passenger vehicles changed in 2002 • These factors are related to the economic and demographic factors such as income per capita and share of aged people. • A quadratic relationship exists between the change in level of car ownership and the share of aged people, with the turning point being approximately 17 percent. • Result of econometric analysis implies a possibility of inverted-U shape relationship between the share of elderly and the CO2 emissions per capita from passenger vehicles.

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