Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools

1. Work and play: Disease spread, social behaviour and data collection in schools Dr Jenny Gage, Dr Andrew Conlan, Dr Ken Eames

2. Metapopulation models • Complicated word for something familiar. • Population patches: lots of infection within a patch, less transmission between patches.

3. Network models Show connections in a population. • Can identify the most important individuals. • But hard to measure real networks.

4. Network models Who do you think are the most important individuals in this population? Who would you immunise to prevent spread of disease?

5. Patterns of infection: measles No. measles cases 1985 1945 1965 • Mostly infects children.

6. Patterns of infection: measles big epidemic every 2 years No. measles cases 1985 1945 1965 • Mostly infects children. • Regular pattern of epidemics.

7. Patterns of infection: measles big epidemic every 2 years 1968: vaccination begins No. measles cases 1985 1945 1965 • Mostly infects children. • Regular pattern of epidemics. • Controlled by vaccination.

8. Discussion Unless you live in a very small village, you probably don’t meet with everyone else who lives where you do. So how do diseases get passed on? • Schools are important … why?

9. Lots of people close together in the same place. • Many susceptibles - ideal for an epidemic.

10. Discussion School children are the main group who spread measles • But how does an epidemic spread through a school?

11. Even within a small school, there’s a lot of spatial structure… Class Class Class Travel Playground Dining hall Class Class Class … but how do different parts interact?

12. Even within a small school, there’s a lot of spatial structure… Class Class Class This is where we needed schools to help us Travel Playground Dining hall Class Class Class … but how do different parts interact?

13. Example of network data Primary school network, pupils aged 10-11.

14. Discussion What can you tell from this network?

15. It is likely that: • green and red distinguish between boys and girls • someone was absent

16. We also see cliques where everyone names everyone else

17. Why is this near-clique surprising?

18. Year 9 and Year 10 secondary students: Collected primary data for us by taking questionnaires into one or more of their local primary schools for the children to fill in. They then did some preliminary work on the data for us, anonymising the data to ensure that ethical guidelines were followed. We then collated their data and put it into network diagrams so we could analyse the mixing patterns of the primary school children. Mixing patterns in schools