Elements of Vulnerability

1. Climate Resilience in Fragile and Conflict-Affected SocietiesWorkshop on Climate Sceince Needed to Support Robust Adaptation DecisionsGeorgia Tech, Atlanta, 6th February 2014Janani VivekanandaManager, Environment, Climate Change and Security Programme International Alert

2. 1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security 2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace3. Conclusion and Discussion

3. Elements of Vulnerability Vulnerability Sensitivity Availability and importance of the affected resource Exposure Rate and variation of climate change Adaptive Capacity Generic Impact specific Depends on governance and stability Depend on climate change impacts and environment Adapted from IPCC 2007

4. Adaptation and Resilience Adaptation to climate change • “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC 2007:896) • focuses on managing impacts of specific climate effects Resilience • “Ability of countries, communities, and households to anticipate, adapt to, and/or recover from the effects of potentially hazardous occurrences (climate change, natural disasters, economic instability, conflict) in a manner that protects livelihoods, accelerates and sustains recovery, and supports economic and social development” (IAWG-R, 2013) Resilience Adaptation

5. Wars in the 21st century

6. That was the good news • Decline in annual incidence of armed conflict has ended – not clear if it has reversed: • 30 in 2010 --- 37 in 2011 --- 32 in 2012 • In many conflicts, violence has only been suppressed • Risk of recidivism • Peace processes usually need international support • May get harder to initiate and sustain • And there are other dimensions of violence

7. Pressures - population trends

8. Positive And Negative Cycle 5/16 Climate and Environmental Change Violent Conflict Vulnerability Human Insecurity* Fragility Peace Human Security Resilience Stability decrease increases * Human security = “freedom from the risk of loss or damage to a thing that is important to survival and well-being” (Barnett et al 2010. p4)

9. International Alert‘s Rationale Behind Working on Climate Change • If climate change is a ‘risk multiplier’ which interacts with pre-existing social, economic and political risks, making peace and stability harder to achieve, • then addressing the pre-existing root causes of vulnerability will help build resilience to climate change and contribute to stability

10. Local Perspectives and Narratives – understanding complexity N. Shresta/International Alert

11. Local Perspectives and Narratives - maladaptation N. Shresta/International Alert

12. N. Shresta/International Alert

13. 1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security 2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace3. Conclusion and Discussion

14. Approaches to the climate-resilience-peace nexus 11/16 • Focus on Resilience • Rethinking development • Getting the institutions right • Face the challenges of migration • Peace positive low-carbon economy

15. Example of silo-ed aid approaches Question 1: The call states that “while insecurity and violence affect many cities in [Latin America], reducing exposure to those hazards is outside the scope of this [call]. Activities that respond to those affected by complex emergencies will not be considered under this [call]”? Given the post-conflict context of the region, would it be acceptable to propose an approach that will ensure that interventions will “do no harm” in the given urban setting, and build resilience holistically to all hazards in those contexts, including (but not exclusively) violence and insecurity? Response to Question 1: [The donor] intends that projects funded focus on reducing the risks associated with natural hazards, rather than human-made threats. Proposed activities must clearly reflect this emphasis.

16. 1. Understanding the Linkages between Climate Change and Security 2. Approaches to the addressing links between climate, resilience and peace3. Conclusion and Discussion

17. Positive And Negative Cycle Climate and Environmental Change Violent Conflict Vulnerability Human Insecurity Fragility Climate Change Funding Human Security Peace Resilience Stability decreases increases • Research, Policy and Practice • Understanding Complexity • Adjusting Funding • Changing Institutions

18. Conclusions • 1. Focus of qualitative literature = identifying correlations and arguing causality does not help determine how to promote resilience in FCAS. Need more multivariate analyses to address multivariate, complex risks. • 2. Most models are at a resolution which offer limited value to development programmers at national and subnational level. • 3. Research required for policy and programmingrequires a nuanced understanding power, politics and political economy of context. • 4. In FCAS, we need to understand links between fragility, vulnerability, and security in order to build resilient communities to cope with variability. • 5. Implementation will still be a challenge, but better understanding of complexity will at least put policy and practice on the right track.

19. Thank You for Your Attention Janani Vivekananda Manager – Climate Change and Security International Alert, London jvivekananda@international-alert.org +44 207 627 6823 www.international-alert.org