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Shifts in Democratic Convention Acceptance Speeches 1980 – 2012

Shifts in Democratic Convention Acceptance Speeches 1980 – 2012. Prepared by Upstream Analysis September 6, 2012. Methodology.

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Shifts in Democratic Convention Acceptance Speeches 1980 – 2012

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  1. Shifts in Democratic Convention Acceptance Speeches1980 – 2012 Prepared by Upstream Analysis September 6, 2012

  2. Methodology • The word clouds on the following pages represent the 50 words most frequently used by each of the nominated Democratic presidential candidates at their respective conventions from 1980 through 2012. • The larger the font size of each word, the more frequently the term was used by the candidate. • A “stop list” of the most commonly used words in the English language was used to filter out terms such as “and,” “of,” “the,” etc. • The speech text used for the word clouds were based on transcripts provided by The Washington Post (2012), CQ Transcriptions (2000, 2008), FDCH (1996, 2004), the Democratic National Committee (1992) and the American Presidency Project (1980. 1984, 1988). • Visualizations were generated using TagCrowd.com.

  3. Key Findings • Consistent with the campaign objective of making 2012 a choice rather than a referendum, Pres. Obama spoke the words “choice” and “choose” a combined 20 times, more than almost any other term in the speech. • But despite such efforts to frame the election as a choice, Obama only mentioned Mitt Romney’s name once, and “Republicans” twice. This is a notable contrast to 2008, when he mentioned his opponent John McCain 21 times. • If anyone thought Obama’s speech would be less “hopey-changey” than last time, they were only half right. The speech mentioned “hope” 14 times vs. four times in 2008. But of course, as the incumbent, he only mentioned change seven times compared to 17 times in 2008. • Bucking a pattern seen with both Democratic and Republican incumbent presidents, Barack Obama’s speech accepting his party’s nomination was shorter than the speech given previously as a non-incumbent. Yet he received 12% more applause lines four more laughs from the audience compared to the 2008 speech.

  4. Pres. Jimmy Carter (1980) • A grouping of terms that in hindsight touched on this nominee’s biggest strengths (arms, human rights, peace, secure) and weaknesses (economic, energy, oil). • Rather than mention his opponent’s name, Carter hammered away at a Republican brand still weakened by Nixon.

  5. Walter Mondale (1984) • The most mentions of his opponent by any other nominee analyzed, except for Barack Obama in 2008. • Fiscal policy terms percolate throughout: business, deficit, economy, jobs, rich and taxes. • Truth (for which Mondale was vilified when it came to taxes) and values were prominent. • The word “future” was front and center, perhaps as an attempt to avoid harkening back to the Carter years.

  6. Gov. Michael Dukakis (1988) • A rather amorphous grouping, light on policy with an emphasis on biographical terms. • The words used to express a lofty vision included dream, community, friends, idea, proud, together.

  7. Gov. Bill Clinton (1992) • Biographical terms included child, family, father, mother and Hope. • On a policy level, there was a lot of emphasis on the “covenant” between government and the people. Clinton criticized government numerous times for not being “on your side” or “not working for you.”

  8. Pres. Bill Clinton (1996) • Laying out his vision for a second term, Clinton’s “bridge to the 21st century” speech was both vision and issue oriented, casting government policies in human terms. • On a policy level, terms included college, drugs, education, jobs, tax, school and welfare. • On a human level, terms included children, family, people.

  9. Vice Pres. Al Gore (2000) • Like his opponent George W. Bush, Al Gore included a lot of “values” terms such as children, country, families and people. • At the same time, Gore’s speech was also focused on domestic policy with terms like school, security, welfare and working.

  10. Sen. John Kerry (2004) • More mentions of “president” than any other nominee speech analyzed. • A lot of mentions of the word “values,” but few other value-oriented terms. • Somewhat State-of-the-Union-ish, touching on both domestic policy (health care, jobs, states, tax) and foreign policy (flag, war, world).

  11. Sen. Barack Obama (2008) • More mentions of his opponent’s name than any other nominee analyzed. • “Promise” and “change” were the major themes. Despite popular perception, “hope” did not make the list of most prominent terms used in this speech. • While McCain’s speech had a military edge with terms like attack, fight, fought, power, tough and war, Obama’s speech reflected a country growing weary of war, focusing instead on economy, jobs, education and health care.

  12. Pres. Barack Obama (2012) • Combined, “choice” and “choose” outnumbered nearly any other term in the speech, withthe exception of “America/American.” • Obama did not shy away from the “hope” message, combining it with “believe” and “future” to create an optimistic narrative arc. • “Jobs” was prominent, along with other employment-related terms such as pay and workers.

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