Chapter 7

1. Chapter 7 The Human Population Part 1 STNT 42 Case study questions are separate. Questions are provided.

2. Case Study: The Environmental Implications of China’s Growing Populations • What is China’s population? How does China rank in population? • What is the population of the U.S.? • Which of the two countries is the largest consumer of resources and the greatest producer of pollution? • What are the advantages to Chinese people who follow the “one child” policy?

3. Case Study continued • What other tools has China used to manage their population growth? • What is China’s fertility rate today? • Why is it that even with China’s drop in fertility rate their resource consumption rate is increasing? • When is the population of China expected to decline? • What is China doing to offset their environmental problems?

4. Is the World Overpopulated? • The world’s population is now at 7 billion. • October 31, 2011 was a symbolic date which was based on data on the most recently available censuses, population registers and other data from each country. • It is very likely that there are inevitable inaccuracies in all demographic statistics especially in a significant number of developing countries. • Explain the reasons for inaccuracies in demographic statistics especially in developing countries.

5. How Would You Vote? 7 Billion People are Breeding Exponentially Should the population of the U.S. be stabilized as soon as possible? Answer with a brief explaination. • a) Yes. Governments should use incentives and penalties. • b) Yes. However, only through indirect means, like education, or by relying on demographic transition. • c) No. The population of my country could continue to grow without serious consequences.

6. Earth’s Carrying Capacity • Every 5 days the global human population increases by about 1 million people. • The population was stable until a few hundred years ago. • Human population growth has been exponential for the last 400 years.

7. Population Increase • What are three major factors accounting for the exponential population increase?

8. Thomas Malthus • The question is have we or will we outgrow the supply of food, water, timber, fuel and other resources? • 1798 Thomas Malthus made some population observations and predictions identified by this graph. • What were Malthus’ observations? • What were Malthus’ predictions?

9. Actually, what has happened? • Did Thomas Malthus’ predictions come true? • Actually, what has happened to our food production? • Explain how this has happened.

10. Changes in Population Size • Define Demography Add to formula page. • Define migration and explain the two types.

11. Changes in Population Size • CBR – crude birth rate • Number of births per 1,000 individuals • CDR – crude death rate • Number of deaths per 1,000 individuals • Why do you not factor migration when doing global population rates?

12. Population Formulas • Global Population Rate = CBR – CDR 10 • National Population Rate = (CBR + immigr.) – (CDR + emmigr.) 10 • %Growth rate = present population – past population X 100 past population Because the birth and death rates are expressed by 1,000 people, we divide by 10 in order to represent the value as a percentage. Add to Formula page

13. Do the Math: Growth Rates Growth Rate • Generation 1 14 • Generation 2 18 _____________ • Generation 3 22 _____________ • Generation 4 40 _____________

14. Doubling Time • If you know the growth rate of a population and assume the rate is constant you can calculate the doubling time. • The time it would take the population to double in size. • Doubling time in years = 70____ growth rate • How long would it take a population to double at a 2% growth rate? Add to formula page

15. Do The Math • If the population of rabbits in an ecosystem grows at a rate of approximately 4% per year, the number of years required for the rabbit population to double is closest to: • 4 years • 8 years • 12 years • 17 years • 25 years

16. Projected World Population • This is a graph of the projected world population. • Most demographers believe the Earth’s population will not double again. • There is a range of population estimates. • When are we predicted to reach Earth’s carrying capacity? • How old will you be?

17. The Lily Pond Parable • If a pond lily double everyday and it takes 30 days to completely cover a pond, on what day will the pond be ¼ covered? • ½ covered? • Does the size of the pond make a difference? • What kind of environmental consequences can be expected as the 30th day approaches? • What will begin to happen at one minute past the 30th day? • At what point (what day) would preventative action become necessary to prevent unpleasant events?

18. Fertility • Define TFR – Total Fertility Rate • What is the TFR for the United States? • Define Replacement-level fertility. • What would be the typical replacement? • How does the replacement level differ in developed countries vs. developing countries? • What makes the difference?

19. Life Expectancy • Average number of years that an infant born in a particular year in a particular country can be expected to live, given the current average life span and death rate of that country. • What would be true of a country with a higher life expectancy? • What does a higher life expectancy predict? • What is the difference between the life expectancy for males vs. females and what are the reasons for the difference.

20. Average Life Expectancies around the World 70 years now

21. Life Expectancy • Women # 1 Japan 86 #35 United States 81 • Men #1 Qatar 81 #36 United States 76 • Countries #1 Japan 83 #33 United States 79 Lowest Sierra Leone 47 • Oldest living person – 122 years • Jeanne Calment lived on her own until 110 and then moved into a nursing home. Qater

22. Infant and Child Mortality Sweden 2.5 France 3.6 • What is the difference between infant and child mortality? #1 Singapore 1.92 #34 U.S. 6.81 #188 Afghanistan 135.95

23. Infant Mortality • Why is infant mortality is the single best indicator of a society’s quality of life? • List the reasons that U.S. infant mortality is higher than it could be. • How does infant mortality in the U.S. vary between African American, Native American and Caucasian infants. What are the reason for this difference? • What information can you learn about a country based on its infant mortality rates?

24. Aging and Disease • A country might have a high CDR not because of a low standard of living but because it has a high number of older individuals. • What are the largest causes of death worldwide?

25. The AIDS Tragedy • AIDS is projected to cause premature deaths of 278 million people between 2000 – 2050. • This will be deaths of young people 15-49, not infants. • What are the effects of the loss of young adults in a nation? • Which area is most affected by the AIDS tragedy?

26. POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE • Visual representation of age structure in a country for males and females. • What does each horizontal bar represent? • What do the three colors represent?

27. Which part of the age structure graph is the major factor in determining a country’s population growth?

28. Population Momentum • Define population momentum.

29. POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE • 2006 • 32% of the people in developing countries were under 15 years • 17% in developed countries. • Youthful age structure contributes to an unemployment crisis. • Provides for social unrest and recruits for terrorist activities. Figure 6-9

30. POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE • About 14% of the world’s population live in countries with stabilizing or declining populations. • Rapid population decline can lead to long-lasting economic and social problems. • Death from AIDS can disrupt a country’s social and economic structure by removing significant numbers of young adults. • What are the costs of an aging population?

31. United States Population • What caused the baby boom? • What caused the baby bust? • What caused the echo baby boom? Political clout Lack of advancement in jobs due to boomers retiring later.

32. U.S. Baby Boomers • Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of all adult Americans. • How does the size of the baby boomer population affect economics in the United Stages?

33. Chapter 7 Human Population Part 2 STNT 40 questions are provided.

34. Migration • Explain the increase in population in the U.S. considering a TFR of 2.1. • Define Net migration rate. • What is a positive/negative net migration rate?

35. U.S. Immigration • Since 1820, the U.S. has admitted almost twice as many immigrants and refugees as all other countries combined.

36. Immigration • Between 1820 and 1960 most legal immigrants came from Europe. • Since 1960 most where have most of the U.S. immigrants come from? • What would be the benefit for the U.S. putting a limit on immigration? • What are the benefits for the U.S. allowing immigration?

37. Migration • This is a national not a global affect. • Displaced due to disease, natural disasters, wars… • Leads to: • Most of the migration is movement of people from developing countries to developed countries. • Net migration rate = number of immigrants number of people in the population Add this formula to your formula page.

38. Do The Math: Calculating Population Growth • New Zealand has a population of 4.3 million people, a TFR of 2.1 and a net migration rate of 2 per 1,000. • How many people will New Zealand gain next year as a result of immigration? • If the TFR stays the same for the next century, and the net migration rate stays the same as well, when will the population of New Zealand double?

39. Theory of Demographic Transition • Most demographers believe that the Earth’s population is likely to level off by 2100 without doubling again. • Explain the theory of demographic transition. • Add this theory to your laws page of your notebook.

40. 4 Phases of Demographic Transition • For each stage: • Identify the name.

41. Phase 1 Slow Population Growth • CBR = CDR • Describe the birth rate, death rate and total population size during this phase. • Explain the circumstances which caused birth and death rates to be fairly equal.

42. Phase 2Rapid Population Growth • Describe the birth rate, death rate and total population size during this phase. • Explain the circumstances which allowed the rapid population growth. • Which countries are in phase 2 of demographic transition?

43. Phase 3Stable Population Growth • Describe birth rates, death rates and total population size during this phase. • Explain the relationship between increase in economy and education which results in decline in birth rates. • How can such a decrease in birth rates result in exponential growth in this phase?

44. What information can you get from this graph?

45. Phase 4Declining Population Growth • Relatively high level of affluence and economic development • Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, Italy. • Fewer young people • High proportion of elderly people • What are the economic and societal effects of a declining population? • What is happening to birth rates, death rates and total population during this phase?

46. Family Planning • Define family planning. • What services are included in family planning? • What benefits other than population decline come from family planning?

47. Family Planning • What are the environmental characteristics of a nation with lower birth rates? • List some ideas to improve family planning.

48. Empowering Women • Provide education, paying jobs, support their human rights. • Women form ½ the world’s population • Do almost all the world’s domestic work and childcare. • 60 – 80% of work associated with growing food, gathering fuelwood, hauling water. • Work 2/3 of all hours worked and receive 10% of the pay. • Make up to 70% of the world’s poor and 64% of the world’s illiterate adults.

49. TFR Educated vs. Uneducated Women Developing Countries What information do you get from this graph?

50. Factors Affecting Birth Rates/Fertility Rates • Importance of children in the work force. • The cost of raising and educating them. • Availability of pensions. • Urbanization. • Education/employment opportunities for women. • Infant deaths • Marriage age. • Availability of contraception and abortion. • Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms. Compare these factors in developed vs. developing countries.