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Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK

Appraising sub-regional and local growth strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester-Derby Area, UK. Policy applications of a new model of transport and land use activities. Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK. ETC 2008 8 October 2008. The 3 Cities sub-region, UK.

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Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK

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  1. Appraising sub-regional and local growth strategies in the Nottingham-Leicester-Derby Area, UK.Policy applications of a new model of transport and land use activities Duncan Forbes and Ying Jin WSP Policy & Research, Cambridge, UK ETC 2008 8 October 2008

  2. The 3 Cities sub-region, UK The PTOLEMY1 study area 1Planning Transport and Land use for the East Midlands economy

  3. Structure of presentation • Overview of PTOLEMY and the modelling approach • Results from modelling studies undertaken • Case Study 1: Regional planning policy assessment • Case Study 2: Regional transport policy assessment • Case Study 3: Local housing policy assessment

  4. Land use influences the use of transport Location of shops, jobs, leisure Location of households Economic Activity Population Costs and congestion Costs and congestion Transport influences the location of land use What is a land use & transport model

  5. Households transport Eg shops, schools Basic Industries Local Services Land-use activities

  6. HGV Car Households LGV transport Walking Basic Industries Local Services Coach Park and Ride Cycling Bus Tram Train Transport PTOLEMY incorporates a multimodal transport model

  7. Case Study 1: Regional Planning Policy Assessment

  8. Test options • Similar levels of growth • D2 concentrates growth in main urban areas • E1 has positive employment growth • E2 sees employment decline

  9. Employment Highlights the increase in out-commuting from the sub-region in the period 2006 to 2026

  10. Travel characteristics

  11. Average zonal road traffic speeds Derby Nottingham Leicester E1-D2 scenario Positive employment growth and urban concentration housing growth

  12. Conclusions from Case Study 1 • Demonstrated the importance of the balance of employment and housing • Showed that even with low economic growth traffic can grow • Showed that average traffic speeds within the region would fall particularly in suburban and rural networks

  13. Case Study 2: Regional Transport Assessment

  14. Key features of the proposed Innovative package of measures • Congestion-charge cordon around the urban centres of Nottingham, Leicester and Derby • £1.75 change on inbound traffic in the morning peak and outbound traffic movements in the evening peak. • No charge was incurred outside the peak periods. • Measures that would allow or encourage travellers to change from using the car to making use of alternative transport modes: • Core measures: • Public transport fare reduction: • ‘Smarter’ choices:

  15. Summary of impact in the AM peak period (7am to 10am) • Compared to a continuation of current policy: • Car: • car trips reduced by 15% • average monetary cost increased by 31% • Park and Ride • use increase significantly with travellers closer to the park and ride sites making more use of the facilities. • Bus • increases by 70% • the average journey length increasing by 6%. • average fare reduced by 25% • Tram • 67% increase in patronage with the introduction of new routes. • Walking and cycling • also saw a 8% increase

  16. Conclusions from Case Study 2 • We were able to show that there was a significant reduction in the use of car transport leading lower levels of congestions

  17. Case Study 3: Local Housing Policy Assessment

  18. Housing rent indicator Derby Nottingham Burton Loughborough Coalville Leicester Hinckley M1 Motorway

  19. Change in congestion levels

  20. Conclusions from Case Study 3 • Highlighted the impact on the local housing market from the construction of 15000 dwellings within Coalville • Showed that congestions is likely to increase from Coalville leading to the M1, but also towards Loughborough

  21. Conclusions • PTOLEMY has been developed to undertake a range of policy test within the 3-cities sub region of the East Midlands. • Case Study 1. Demonstrates the importance between the balance of employment and housing. • Case Study 2. Shows that a package of transport measures would be successful in reducing car traffic to support the economic development ambitions of the sub-region. • Case Study 3: Shows the likely impacts to the local housing market and the impact of development on the highway network. The model is now being extensively used by both public and private bodies within the region, in a number of new policy applications

  22. Acknowledgments • PTOLEMY model development • UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority, Department for Transport, East Midlands Airport • Case Study 1. • UK Highways Agency, East Midlands Development Agency, East Midlands Regional Authority • Case Study 2 • Derby City Council, Derbyshire County Council, Leicester City Council, Leicestershire County Council, Nottingham City Council, Nottinghamshire County Council • Case Study 3 • Leicestershire County Council • WSP team • Gordon Deane, Duncan Forbes, Jing Gao, Jenny Hunt, Vera Jakimovska, Ying Jin, Ian Williams, Yan Zhu

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