Leslaw Michnowski psl.pl/kte

1. WORLDWIDE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMAS A PRECONDITION FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS GOALS

2. Leslaw Michnowski www.psl.org.pl/kte Co-founder of Sustainable Development Information Society Forum – Poland. Member of: - Committee for Futures Studies "Poland 2000 Plus" Polish Academy of Sciences; - the Polish Association for the Club of Rome; - the Polish delegation for the World Summit on the Information Society – Tunis, 2005. Chairman of Sustainable Development Creators’ Club - Poland,

3. It is extendedpaper presentation during plenary session of IFISI WORLD FORUM ON ICT STRATEGIES AND INVESTMENTS, in Marrakech, Morocco, 1- 3 March 2006 - http://www.virtualis-net.com/ifisi/index.html

4. From STATEMENT BY H. E. MR. KOFI ANNANTHE SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE UNITED NATIONS, WSIS, Tunis, 16 November 2005:This Summit (WSIS) (…) must push forward the outcome of the (2005) World Summit (…) It must lead to information and communications technologies being used in new ways, which will bring newBENEFITS TO ALL social classes. (…)THE HURDLE HERE IS MORE POLITICAL THAN FINANCIAL.

5. “the sustainable development of our people (…) comprehensive vision for the future of humanity (…) poverty eradication, changing consumption and production patterns (…) pillars of sustainable development – economic development, social development and environmental protection (…)”.– WSSD - Johannesburg Declaration.Sustainable development (SD)of the world societyis the most important goal of UN

6. I present systemic analysis results essence of:- GLOBAL CRISIS,- SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,and- INFORMATION FOUNDATIONS of sustainable development.

7. This analysis was done with help of – createdby me - conceptual model of system: man – technology - environment: System of Life.

8. In System of Lifeapproach(that is holistic)the global eco-system - system: man - technology – environment –as well asenvironmentareLIFE-SYSTEMS and open systems.Therefore, the life of system: man-technology, depends on life, high quality and proper form of environment.

9. The development of system: man-technology (for example, world society or high developed societies) depends ondevelopment of environment.

11. For sustainable developmentwe need:- ability to recognize (with help of warning forecasting system) approaching limits to growth(p-t T),and- skill to cross them in developmental way.

12. Nowadays, the global eco-system– world society and natural environment – isinthe State of Change (Flux) and Risk.It is qualitatively new state of life-conditions (inter alia access to naturalresources)– caused by big science-technology (and organization) progress.

13. In the State of Change and Risk:- very high rate of changes in life-conditions(and environment);- big inertiaof societies, economy and management;- lack of full knowledge about complex (including future) effects of human activity (in chaotic world).

14. In the State of Change and Riska necessity of: -anticipation of changes in life-conditions,and- “feedforward” adaptation forms of life (technology, economy, value system, …) to approaching new life-conditions.

15. For life in the State of Change and Riskwe have to createcommonly accessible WORLDWIDE SD-INFORMATION SYSTEMfor:- comprehensive monitoring,- far-sighted forecasting, and- measurable evaluation (assessment),of policy, economy, work, and other changes effects in life-conditions of human-beings and nature in general.

16. Comprehensive monitoring – such monitoring that delivers informationalso about:- quality of monitored life-process (is it development or crisisregression?), and- rate of development or regression (is itaccelerate or delay?).

18. IfE = mc2 (Einstein) and – probably – the amount of Universe energy is infinite -the access to deficit resources(energy in large sense) woulddepend on:human intellectual potential, knowledge, technology and time,that conditions it.

19. Nowadays, quite new life-conditions:environment has lost abilityto recovery by itself.Therefore we have „to give” environment more than we „take” from it.But - in the State of Change and Risk -preparation for this „giving” ought to be based on the knowledge about FUTURE LIFE-NEEDS of environment.

20. In the State of Change and Risk- the main cause of the global eco-system degradation is rapidly pacing MORAL DEGRADATION (out-datedness, obsolescence)of existing forms of life – not fitted to new rapidly emergence life-conditions and life-needs.

21. Main cause of global crisis:World society and its economy is not fitted to life in the State of Change and Risk.World society has not ability for efficient elimination negative effects of MORAL DEGRADATION.

22. The main UN problems: Hownowadays - in the State of Change and Risk – shape life of the world society ? How to develop ICT for life in above state?

23. To overcome global crisis we have (with help of ICT)to shape:- farsightedness;- flexibility,and- reserves creation ability,of world society.

24. We need alsopossibility of basing policy and economy on COMMON INTEREST (G. H. Brundtland,Our Common Future) VALUE SYSTEM

25. In the State of Change and Risk, instead ofsocial-Darwinism (and “structural” unemployment)we needEcohumanisticIntellectual Evolution –i.e. pre-selection in virtual reality (by means of computer simulation) aided bypopular wisdom.

26. ECOHUMANISMis a partnership-based co-operation for the COMMON GOOD OF ALL PEOPLE(rich and poor, from countries highly developed and lag behind in development), their descendants, and natural environment - COMMONLY SUPPORTED by science and HIGH TECHNOLOGY.

27. Wisdom - ability to:- observe events in global eco-system;- get knowledge about processes combined with these events;- predict future of these processes;- assessthese processes;- amplify (support)life-support processes, or- eliminate processes dangerous for life (of observer and environment).

28. „Structural” unemployment is not a result of science-technology progress.It is a result of pathological (social-Darwinistic) economy and education system.It is – as a first - a result of the world elite short-sightedness.

29. In order to achieve sustainable development of the world society we have to go through NEW SCIENCE–TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION that allow to convert wastesinto environment life-support agents.

30. THE MOREscientific-technology progress–THE MORE moral degradation,as well asTHE MORE human labor- wisdom intellectual creativity – is essentialfor life and development

31. In the State of Change and Risk,instead of“growth at the cost of (socio-natural) environment”continuation,we need:- “development together with environment”,and- WISDOM BASED SOCIETY.

32. WISDOM BASED SOCIETY – such knowledge societythat is based on:- commonly accessible knowledge about complex (including FUTURE) effects of human activity;- popular ability to create information (in N. Wiener sense, i.e. cognition and innovation activity),and - common interest value system – ECOHUMANISTIC one.

33. Long-term prediction and assessment of human activity complex effectsand decreasing of moral degradation intensity as well as elimination of negative moral degradation aftermath- needs to base socio-economic activity onecohumanistic (common-interest) value system

34. The shift from currently egoistic- to ecohumanistic- value system is a precondition to get popular access to large amount of knowledge,(existing and that new one, which ought to be permanently delivered) which is necessary for efficient: - warning forecastingand - designing means for elimination of moral degradation negative effects.

35. In cybernetics approach:no limits to WISDOM based growth and sustainable developmentIt is consistent with P. Teilhard de Chardin OMEGA POINT conception.

36. The basic premise : i = B(n,q)1/swhere: i - is the level of information (Wiener, 1971) – conceptual measure of level of development (and organization, as well as quality) of life-system; s - is the level of entropy as well as the level of development - reserves of life-system;n - is the number of its elements; q - is quality of elements of life system, andB(n,q) - some function connected with quantity and quality of system elements.

37. For sustainable development we need to combine:- economic development;- social development,and- environmental protection,in short- and long-term perspective

38. To achieve sustainable developmentwe need to implement:- sustained economic growth;- fair globalization (including elimination of “digital divide” and unemployment),as well as- other fundamentalUN Goals.

39. Sustainable developmentof the world society is essential to avoid global catastrophe (environmental,world war for access to deficit resources, clash of civilizations)

40. To avoid global catastrophe we must create (as rapidly as possible – China,India!!!) information foundations of:- SD(sustainable development)-policy,and- SD-economy,as well as- large-scale flexible automation.

41. Worldwide SD-Information System (of systems)would be: - net and GRID(T. Utsumi) type;- continuously under development,and- created with help of System Dynamics in multi stage way (based on G. Nadler „ideal” method).

42. We ought to treatMeadows’s – Forrester (Limits to Growth, Beyond the Limits, Limits to Growth30 Years Update, …) System Dynamics warning forecastingas element of:worldwide early warning system (2005 World Summit Outcome, p-t. 56 f),as well asWorldwide SD-Information System.

43. As a next task we ought to build WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE AUTOMATION SYSTEM

44. These tasks ought to be preceded by INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH,which will describe:- conditions forcreationthe information foundations of:SD-policy andSD-economy- i.e. the ways of ICT development for life in the State of Change and Risk.

45. Effects of above research would be presented during at least three international conferences of International forum on a wisdom-based global information society – towards sustainable development of the world society

46. Conference I: Information efficiency and warning forecasting as preconditions of SD-policy and SD-economy (2007)Main tasks:1. How to get policy-makers - and societies - access to knowledge about complex (and future) effects of current policy (their own and other policy-makers)?2. How to combine existing forecasting systems and projects (i.a. Meadows’s-Forrester, T. Utsumi, GEOSS) in Worldwide SD-Information System.3. How to get access to dates and knowledge that are necessary for warning forecasting and elimination of negative moral degradation effects?4. How to transform national and regional statistical offices (e.g. EUROSTAT) into offices for statistic and warning forecasting.

47. Conference II: Computer simulation methods for SD-economy (2009)Main tasks:1. How to build information bases of SD-economy.2. How to make possible complex accounting of benefits and cost of socio-economic activity (including natural and social - human components).3. How to make possible dividing effects of social process of work proportionally to ecosocial usefulness of individual and/or collective work.

48. Conference III: Flexible automation as important agent of sustainable development (2011)Main tasks:1. How to aid, by flexibleautomation, the elimination of rapidly emergence dangers.2. How to aid the fight with negative effects of moral degradation of forms of life?3. How to accelerate other science-technology progress that is essential for sustainable development?4. How to decrease ecological costs of distant transportation?

49. We - Sustainable Development Information Society Forum – Poland - will appreciate subsidy for the first stage of above research and Conference Iof this complex, international project

50. Realization of above ICT development proposal is essential especially for:- INTERNALIZING EXTERNALITIES;-DECOUPLING (the range of economic growth from the range of deficit natural resources depletion growth and degradation of environment), and- COUPLING (the economic growth with social development, including popular quality of lifegrowth).