1 / 17

‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards

‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards. Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk ; twitter: @ epkaufm. White Flight?: Existing evidence base.

quemby-stanley
Download Presentation

‘White flight’ in Britain?: Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. ‘White flight’ in Britain?:Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm

  2. White Flight?: Existing evidence base • USA: white preference effects whilst controlling for socio/economic individual & neighborhood characteristics (Crowder & South, 2000) • Europe: White avoidance rather than flight (Brama, 2006) ; No ‘native flight’ in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); Whites say they would leave diverse areas (van Londen 2012) • UK: No white flight; counter-urbanisation- but lower class whites significantly more likely to leave diverse areas than lower class mne residents, especially in London (Catney & Simpson, 2010)

  3. Data • Uses 18 waves of BHPS (n=192171 person yrs) and waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr) • Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level (BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to capture MNE population, deprivation (Carstairs) and population density. • Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or in Simpson’s quintiles in which each quintile contains a fifth of the mne population (concentration)

  4. Preference to leave by ethnicity and quintile of diversity Source: BHPS-UKHLS 1991-2011

  5. Preference to move • Older residents, home owners and those in lower SEG less likely to prefer to move • Respondents who are more socially- but not politically- conservative more likely to want to move - but not to actually do so • **White respondents more likely to prefer to leave if living in more diverse quintiles

  6. Actual move • All respondents more likely to move from more deprived, diverse and urban wards • Respondents who are white, younger, better-educated, single, childless, renters more likely to move • **The odds of moving higher for whites living in wards with higher minority concentration

  7. Predicted probabilities of move by diversity quintile and ethnicity Source: BHPS 1991-2009; N=102,974, Pseudo R2 = .193

  8. Understanding Society Data 2009-12 • 40k per year compared to 10k per year • Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP, BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation • No interpolation necessary

  9. Understanding Society • Larger sample size (40k v 10k) • More attitudinal questions pertaining to neighbourhood • Period of rise of UKIP and BNP • ‘Right’ defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives, proxy for attitude to diversity among whites • Right x % minorities interaction

  10. Minority% in ward Deprivation of ward

  11. Minority% in ward Deprivation of ward Right party x Minority% in ward

  12. Minority% in ward Right party x Minority% in ward 2nd lag - Local Friends Mean a Lot

  13. Conclusion • Neither White British nor anti-diversity White British are more likely to want to leave diverse areas than minorities • Nor are they more like to actually leave when other factors taken into account • Difficult to support white flight thesis for Britain • White avoidance may be a possibility

  14. ‘White flight’ in Britain?:Determinants of Exit from Diverse Wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College, University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm

More Related