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CATHY JONES Secondary Math Instruction Specialist Center for Mathematics and Science Education Arkansas NASA Education Resource Center WAAX 202 #1 University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 (479) 575-3875 (479) 575-5680 (FAX) e-mail: cej001@uark.edu

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  1. CATHY JONES Secondary Math Instruction Specialist Center for Mathematics and Science Education Arkansas NASA Education Resource Center WAAX 202 #1 University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 (479) 575-3875 (479) 575-5680 (FAX) e-mail: cej001@uark.edu http://www.uark.edu/~k12 info/ Data Analysis, Probability, Predictions, & Proportions It’s Probably Raining Fractions Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs by Judi Barrett Presented by:

  2. During the month of April the head meteorologist for the town of Chewandswallow tried to forecast or predict the weather for the entire month so the citizens would know whether they would need spoons or forks each day. Because of what happened last year in April, he prepared for pea soup and spaghetti.

  3. April Last Year – Find the fractions!

  4. Group Findings • Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/2 of the month? How do you know? • How many days did it rain spaghetti on your April calendar? • As a fraction, how can you say and write the number of days in April it rained spaghetti?

  5. Drawing Conclusions • Which fraction best describes the probability of it raining spaghetti in April? Why? • If the weather were similar to April for the entire year, how many days would you expect it to rain pea soup? • How might your simulation and the results change for the month of February? • Why is the probability of raining spaghetti and pea soup on the same day 0?

  6. Think about it….. What’s the “Theoretical” probability If the years are similar, what's the "Theoretical" probability for Pea Soup or Spaghetti this April?

  7. Experiment….. Find the “Experimental” probability Use a random drawing…a spinner…a die… a coin that will accurately represent what happened last April. Did the experiment turn out like you thought it would? Is everyone’s the same? What do you think will happen if we compile all the data?

  8. November Last Year

  9. More Group Findings • Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/3 of the month? How do you know? • How many days did it rain spaghetti on your November calendar? • As a fraction, how can you say and write the number of days in November it rained spaghetti? If the years are similar, what's the "Theoretical" probability for this November?

  10. Experiment….. Find the “Experimental” probability • Participants will conduct an experiment of this November’s weather • Can you use a random drawing? • Can you use a spinner? • Can you use a die? • Can you flip a coin?

  11. …More Conclusions • On the November spinner, which food has a probability closer to 1? Explain. • Why is raining spaghetti more probable than raining pea soup for the November spinner? • For the fractions describing the chances for raining a certain food, will the numerator ever be larger than the denominator? Explain.

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