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ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level

ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level. Demonstration Event Linz, May 27 th , 2003. Reinhold Deussner - OIR. Introduction. Development of IT-solutions. Development of IT-solutions. Development of IT-solutions. Test of solutions within Demonstrators. Test of solutions

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ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level

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  1. ALSO Danube – Impacts on a macro-economic level Demonstration Event Linz, May 27th, 2003 Reinhold Deussner - OIR

  2. Introduction Development of IT-solutions Development of IT-solutions Development of IT-solutions Test of solutions within Demonstrators Test of solutions within Demonstrators Micro-economic evaluation Micro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation Macro-economic evaluation

  3. Macro-economic evaluation

  4. Trade and Transport Prognosis Trade Flow analysis Year 1995-2000 Trade Prognosis Socio-Economic Framework Transport Infrastructure Transport Market Transport Demand Year 2000 Transport Prognosis Micro-economic evaluation ALSO Danube Scenarios Impacts of ALSO Danube solutions

  5. Transport Prognosis

  6. Trade Prognosis Trade Growth: Eastern Europe catches up• The European integration makes trade growth stronger than GDP (2 - 4% p.a.)• Growth in West and Central Europa relations continues• High growth with East Europe and Black Sea Region

  7. Trade Prognosis Change of commodity structure• High value A and B commodities leading • Low value C commodities (coal, ores) with a modest development

  8. Commodities

  9. Transport markets Transport Volume on River Danube Waterway (year 2000)

  10. Transport Prognosis: Results Transport volume by modes Export, Import, Transit - Bavaria and Austria

  11. Transport Prognosis: Results Growth rates+ Road transport ahead: consequences of liberalised transport markets and shortcomings (infrastructure, funding, transport policies) + modest Growth of Danube Waterway Transports without ALSO solutions

  12. ALSO Economic Impacts

  13. Transport Prognosis: Results ALSO solutions: The Danube gains additional 6 million tons

  14. Transport prognosis: impacts

  15. Impacts on Society and Environment Direct impacts • Calamity abatement on waterway reduces accidents and follow-up consequences • Hazardous Goods monitoring • Energy saving by more regular driving modus Indirect impacts • Modal Shift from road to inland navigation reduces global and local emissions • NOx reduction (-3 to -4% in Corridor) • noise reduction - most important in densely populated urban areas • global effects (CO2 reduction)

  16. Impact on Workforce Improved working conditions Crew on board: in the framework of a growing workload, ALSO provides assistance and relief to human operator, secures proper reaction to emergency situations Additional labour force Creation of additional labour in follow-up services: ports handling, stevedoring, national control centres, system suppliers Crew on board: minimum number regulated Education and training needs Crew: Cargo and transport management, voyage planning, navigation and calamity abatement

  17. Regional Economic Impacts Direct Effects ·    Modest due to low overall size of investment RIS along Upper Danube: 11 million EUR (administration) private operators: 10 million EUR Indirect Effects ·    Indirect effects are considerable: ALSO improves the competitiveness of inland navigation versus road transport the competitiveness of industry - thus safeguarding industrial locations (steel) reduction of external cost 

  18. Cost-benefit analysis

  19. Conclusions

  20. Conclusions

  21. Recommendations

  22. Recommendations

  23. Thanks for Your attention ! Österreichisches Institut für Raumplanung Franz-Josefs-Kai 27 A-1010 Wien tel +43 1 5338747-0  fax +43 1 5338747-66 deussner@oir.at www.oir.at

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