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Usual Work Arrangements: Statistical Analysis and Model Implementation for Jerusalem

Usual Work Arrangements: Statistical Analysis and Model Implementation for Jerusalem . Peter Vovsha, Parsons Brinckerhoff, New York, NY, USA Gaurav Vyas, Parsons Brinckerhoff, New York, NY, USA Danny Givon, Jerusalem Transportation Masterplan Team (JTMT ), Jerusalem, Israel

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Usual Work Arrangements: Statistical Analysis and Model Implementation for Jerusalem

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  1. Usual Work Arrangements: Statistical Analysis and Model Implementation for Jerusalem Peter Vovsha, Parsons Brinckerhoff, New York, NY, USA Gaurav Vyas, Parsons Brinckerhoff, New York, NY, USA Danny Givon, Jerusalem Transportation Masterplan Team (JTMT), Jerusalem, Israel Yehoshua Birotker, Jerusalem Transportation Masterplan Team (JTMT), Jerusalem, Israel TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  2. Motivation • Commuting to work: • Main traffic component in peak periods • Cornerstone of travel demand modeling • Traditional view on commuters: • Full-time worker • Commuting every regular workday • Commuting in peak hours AM / PM • Inflexible schedule dictated by employer • New tendencies: • Growing number of alternative flexible arrangements • New phenomena like telecommuting TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  3. Implications for Modeling • Alternative work arrangements affect: • Commuting patterns and frequency • Sensitivity to congestion pricing and other policies • Correspond to policy levers: • Compressed work weeks • Peak spreading for work hours • Incorporation in travel models: • Explicit (sub-model) or implicit (DAP, work trip rates)? • Assumptions for future (fixed or trends?) TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  4. Taxonomy of Usual Work Arrangements

  5. Jerusalem Household Travel Survey, 2010 TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  6. Main Work Arrangement (lifestyle) Person and Household Characteristics; Occupation Usual Work Location Model If home is not the work place 24 Alternatives Commuting Frequency and Flexibility

  7. Commuting Frequency and Flexibility Number of Days Working 1/7 2/7 3/7 4/7 5/7 6/7 7/7 Telecommuting Frequency (8 categories) Schedule Flexibility: 1) No, 2) Some, 3) High, 4) No schedule Usual Schedule (5 categories) TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  8. Usual Schedule Categories TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  9. Choice Model 1 • Main Work Arrangement: • 2 for Job types • 2 for number of jobs • 2 for Employment types • 3 for Work location • Utility function: • 4 parameterized terms by main dimensions: • Job types • Number of jobs • Employment types • Work location • Interaction terms (2-way constants) TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  10. Choice Model 2 • Work Location • 40 TAZs are sampled from the pool of all TAZs • Size variables include inter-sector friction variables • Sampling is based on the employment characteristics and impedance between origin and destination TAZ TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  11. Choice Model 3 • Commuting Frequency and Flexibility: • 7 for number of days working • 'n+1' alternatives for telecommuting frequency for ‘n’ number of days at work • 4 for schedule flexibility • 5 for usual work schedule • Utility function: • 4 parameterized terms by main dimensions: • Number of days at work • Telecommuting frequency • Schedule flexibility • Usual work schedule • Interaction terms (2-way constants) TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  12. Behavioral Insights – Main Work Arrangements TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  13. Behavioral Insights-Main Work Arrangements TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  14. Behavioral Insights –Work Location Individual Marginal Effects Distance, km Base TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  15. Behavioral Insights –Work Location (Unique Feature) Inter-Sector (Social) Friction TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  16. Behavioral Insights –Commuting Frequency Model

  17. Behavioral Insights –Commuting Frequency Model

  18. Population Synthesis Placement in Jerusalem CT-RAMP ABM Main Long-term Work Arrangements 1 Long-term Location Choices Usual Commuting Freq. & Flexibility Household & Person Mobility Attributes 2 3 Daily Activity-Travel Pattern Type & Time Allocation 4 Tour Formation Location of Non-Work Act. 5 Tour & Trip Details TRB Application Conference, May 2013 Traffic &Transit Network Simulations

  19. Forecasting • Evolution of usual work arrangements: • Communication technology revolution (work from home, telecommuting) • Structural shifts in industry & occupation (flexible work hours, self employment) • Consequence of growing congestion (compress work weeks) • Choice Models: • Statistically estimated for base year • Adjustments for future years: • Scenarios and trends (for example, growing telecommuting) • Policy tests (for example, shifted usual work hours) TRB Application Conference, May 2013

  20. Conclusions and Perspectives • Understanding principal changes in commuting patterns: • Growing share of alternative work arrangements • Incorporation in travel models: • Policy lever / scenario management • Policy implications of alternative work arranges: • Beneficial for reduction of commuting volumes in peak periods • Demand elasticity to congestion pricing • Impact on total VMT remains unclear TRB Application Conference, May 2013

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