EFCOG SAWG Risk Methodologies

1. EFCOG SAWGRisk Methodologies John Farquharson ABS Consulting

2. Introduction • DNFSB letter to DOE dated April 5, 2004 • Risk assessments are applied throughout the complex without consistent issued guidance • EFCOG SAWG Initiative: • Share lessons learned/best practices on risk methodologies • Approach: • Review existing information • Review draft DOE policy and guide and provide input to EH • Survey SC members for risk methodology practices and examples

3. DNFSB Memo 1 – Example of the Use PRA by DOE • Summarizes several PRAs • Uses, quality, and degree of rigor vary widely • No criteria for use of PRAs • Fault tree/event tree often used • Data at a lower degree of rigor

4. DNFSB Memo 2 – Review of Current DOE Applications of QRA and related Methodologies • Summary of three DSAs from various sites that contained various methodologies • Reviewed DOE directives • DOE-STD-1020-2002, Natural Phenomena • DOE-STD-3009-94, Hazard and Accident Analysis… • DOE-STD-3014-96, Aircraft Crash… • Summary: “it appears that PRA/QRA methodologies are often used to prove adequacy of a system rather than to comprehensively identify and rank safety vulnerabilities”

5. DNFSB Memo 3 – Benchmarking of Risk Assessment Activities and Comparison of Approaches to Hazard Analysis and Selection of Safety Controls • Comparison of DOE-STD-3009-94 approach to NRCs NUREG-1520, Standard Review Plan for the Review of a License Application for a Fuel Cycle Facility

6. DNFSB Memo 3 (continued) • DOE approach: “bounding” deterministic accident analysis • Focuses on consequence analysis • Qualitative creditability argument usually made • Several DOE analyses have made probabilistic analysis in hazard analysis • NRC approach: Risk-informed approach • Includes both consequence and frequency analysis • Reliability of controls are directly assessed • More of a layer of protection analysis (LOPA) approach

7. DNFSB Memo 4 – Informal Risk Assessment in Documented Safety Analyses • Summary of several DSAs and how “risk-like” analyses are used to: • Eliminate hazards • Used in hazard analysis • Used in accident analysis • Use of informal risk assessment techniques used throughout DSAs • Vast bulk of hazards are analyzed using qualitative techniques

8. Summary • Obvious that DNFSB has spent significant time researching the use of PRA in DOE facilities • Review focused on frequency issues • Current EFCOG SAWG path • Provide comments on DOE policy and guide • Identify points of contact within EFCOG • Review current risk standards

9. Name Company Location Richard Englehart DOE-HQ EH-53 Washington, DC John Farquharson ABS Consulting Knoxville, TN David Satterwhite Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos, NM Louis Restrepo Omicron Albuquerque, NM Mukesh Gupta Washington Safety Management Solutions Aiken, SC Thomas Altenbach Lawrence Livermore National Lab Livermore, CA Carl Smith BNG America Denver, CO Richard Hartley BWXT Pantex Amarillo, TX Tom Burns Parsons (Savannah River Site) Aikens, SC EFCOG Risk Points of Contacts