Introduction and overview of FLIS: The need to look ahead

1. Knowledge base for Forward-Looking Information and Assessment (FLIS)Development of a platform to support long-term decision making

2. Introduction and overview of FLIS:The need to look ahead New thinking Preparedness “The world we have made, as a result of thinking we have done thus far, creates problems we can not solve at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” (Einstein) “For future success in almost any area, we have to incorporate future effects into our current decision policy making.” (Commissioner Potočnik)

3. Introduction and overview of FLIS:What forward-looking assessments provide Forward-looking assessment can: Frame policies by identifying priority, warning signals and emerging issues reflecting on different options for the future identify driving forces and uncertainties Check whether and how targets can be met, their relevance Develop robust measures and precautionary actions Analyse cause-effect relationships Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, shocks Facilitate short and long-term thinking in a structured way

4. Introduction and overview of FLIS:Future thinking process to support long-term perspectives in decision making

5. Information about the future itself Practice of studying the future

6. Introduction and overview of FLIS:Relationship to system neighbours

7. Introduction and overview of FLIS:SEIS principles in FLIS Information should be readily accessible for end users and public authorities at all levels to enable them to assess SoE, effectiveness of policies and design new policies in a timely manner Information should be collected once and shared with others for many purposes Managed as close to source as possible Enable comparisons at appropriate geographical scale Information should be supported through common, free, open source standards and if possible software tools

8. Introduction and overview of FLIS:FLIS Management Currently FLIS is managed by the EEA • Information collection via contractors • Content management systems • Forward loking indicators – IMS • Models – Model Inventry • Scenarios – Inventory with AoA tools or SENSE system • Enwirowindows In the future • Gradual move to decentralised sytem with countries & relevant organisations

9. Introduction and overview of FLIS:Summary of the state of development of FLIS components

10. Thank you!

11. Methods and tools

12. Aim The aim of the methods and tools component is to present descriptions of available methods and tools, as well as guidance on their use in forward-looking environmental assessments.

13. Current activities Inventory of models Scenario building approaches used in regional and countries exercises Building new explorative scenarios on the bases of stakholder praticipation Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level Windtunelling of existing strategies through scenarios Glossary GEMET and specific glossary linked to scenarios work (draft)

14. Methods and tools:Definition While other components of FLIS provide structured information about the future itself, this component is dedicated to practical methods and tools of studying the future

15. Methods and tools:EEA approach Foresight methods diamond • EEA approach • literature review • scenario development • horizon scanning • exploration • drivers’ analysis • megatrends analysis • modelling R. Popper, 2008

16. Methods and tools:SWOT analysis

17. Methods and tools:Further information

18. Networking, capacity building and governance

19. Networking, capacity, governance:EIONET • EIONET partnership: • EEA • European Topic Centres (ETCs) • National Focal Points (NFPs) • National Reference Centres (NRCs) • NRC-FLIS Structure demonstrating how NFPs, NRCs and ETCs interact with EEA

20. Networking, capacity, governance:Networking and building capacity • Downscaling existing global scenarios to country level • Windtunelling existing strategies through scenarios • Building new scenarios Scenario-building workshops in countries • Slovenia, Turkey, Austria • Network of heads of EU EPAs Cooperation with other institutions: • UNEP/GEO-4 (update of global, developing regional component) • ASEF (3 times, pre-conference mind opener) • ENVSEC (Eastern Europe, Central Asia forthcoming) • OSCE ( 6 scenario-buidling workshops forthcoming: EE, CA, WB, Med, Arctic, global) For awerness raising, capacity building, enhancing stakholders participation, regional recomendations, mind opener

21. Networking, capacity, governance:Aims of scenarios exercises with partners Awareness raising, enhancing stakeholder participation and capacity building: • Countries workshops, regional workshops in cooperation with ENVSEC, EPA network Mind opener – before or during conferences • 3 ASEF conferences (scenario building exercises), Bridging the Gap conference 2009 (future cafes) Developing regional recommendations for countries policy makers (ENVSEC, OSCE)

22. Networking, capacity, governance:Governance “Governance” means rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised at European level, particularly as regards openness, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence (EC White paper on governance)

23. Networking, capacity, governance:Governance – BLOSSOM BLOSSOM project – building understanding of institutional arrangements for and governance of forward-looking information in environmental policy Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analyses – Organisation and Methods

24. Networking, capacity, governance:Governance 1st phase: literature review and workshops: potential of sceanrio planning to inform policy making is often under-exploited 2nd phase: role, relevance, practical experience with institutional arrangements in ocuntries (28 interviews, FI, F, NL, PL, SI, S, SE, UK), in 2010 4 countries added: AU, DE, H, P Country Case studies: governance and administrative context,processes, major studies Crosscutting report: commonalities, lessons learnt (institutions, mechanisms, processes)

26. BLOSSOM SWOT-tail diagram: Netherlands

27. Networking, capacity, governance:Governance FLIS will draw on BLOSSOM project: • to inform and support existing and new activities to improve institutional set-up and governance • to encourage information and good-practice exchange

28. Networking, capacity, governance:Further information

29. Use of forward looking information

30. Use of forward-looking information Forward-looking information is increasingly accepted and used: • In broad policy oriented forward-looking assessments • To support strategic planning and decision making • In education, information, science and research

31. Use of forward-looking info:Assessments Pan European Environment: Glimpses into an uncertain future (2007) Environmental trends and perspectives in the WesternBalkans: future production and consumption patterns (2010) Contributions to EEA major reports: Pan European report 2007 (Belgrade), SOER 2010: • Part A: explorative LT (2050) analyses of global megatrends • Part B: thematic assessments (outlook 2020) • Part C: country profiles (include Forward-looking component)

32. Use of forward-looking info:Assessments – example Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patternFramework of analyses Assessment of assessments approach

33. Use of forward-looking info:Planning and decision-making Two purposes of forward-looking information in relation to policy: • Agenda setting – the identification of issues for policy attention and exploration of uncertainties. • Policy development – including long-term (regulatory) impact assessment of policies.

34. Use of forward-looking info:Education, information, science Education – use in class-rooms and by students, as well as educating policy makers Information – raising awareness and presenting complex issues clearly Science and research – setting research agendas and priorities

35. Thank you!