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Populations Perils

Populations Perils. Why Understanding Population is Necessary. Explosion?. From an elderly world, to possible extinction. Or Implosion?. 267 births per minute 16,020 an hour 385,046 births a day 140,541,944 births a year 2012 estimates. 107 people die per minute 6,420 an hour die

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Populations Perils

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  1. Populations Perils Why Understanding Population is Necessary Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  2. Explosion? Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  3. From an elderly world, to possible extinction. Or Implosion? Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  4. 267 births per minute 16,020 an hour 385,046 births a day 140,541,944 births a year 2012 estimates 107 people die per minute 6,420 an hour die 154,077 a day die 56,238,002 deaths per year A net global population gain of over 84 million annually Basic Global Demographics7.1 billion on earth in 2012! Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  5. Are we overpopulated? • What is overpopulation? • Overpopulation is essentially, too many people for the available resources. Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  6. Where are we overpopulated? • LDC’s (Least Developed Countries)have difficulty overcoming the effects of too many people. • MDC’s (Most Developed Countries) are guilty of overconsumption of the world’s resources. Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  7. Carrying Capacity • Carrying capacity is the world’s ability to support and sustain life. “sustainability” • Is this a global, regional, or local scale question? • It’s all three • How long can we sustain? Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  8. Whatcarrying capacityissues are at stake? Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  9. Population Concentrations Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  10. Cartogram – showing uneven population distribution Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  11. The J curve Jeff Cherry - CCISD

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  13. Industrial Revolution • Late 1700’s to early 1800’s in England. • Inventions and innovations led to machinery. • This led to factories being built using iron and coal. • Textiles (clothes) industry became mechanized. Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  14. Industrial Revolution • This would lead to more people moving to the cities. • Better healthcare, sanitation, leads to longer life-expectancy. • People continued to have large families. • What’s the result? • EXPONENTIAL GROWTH Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  15. Thomas Malthus’ Prediction • British economist and minister predicted a population explosion. • Food will continue to increase arithmetically while population will increase exponentially. • Food 1+1+1+1= 4 • Population 1+1=2 x 2=4 x 2=8 Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  16. Will population growth exceed the carrying capacity? Who will be the winners, and who will be the losers? Malthus and Carrying Capacity Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  17. Demographic Transition Model • A process with several stages that societies go through that illustrates population growth and development. • Stage 1 – Low Growth • Stage 2 – High Growth • Stage 3 – Moderate Growth • Stage 4 – Low Growth • Stage 5 – No growth or declining population Jeff Cherry - CCISD

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  20. Total Fertility Rate(# of children per female) • Replacement 2.1 • Current worldwide 2.6 • Rate of natural increase worldwide • 1.2% • MDC’s • 0.2% • LDC’s • 2.4% Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  21. IMPLOSION – deaths exceeding births! • Will modernization spell the doom of some societies? • Many of the world’s countries are seeing below replacement levels (2.1 children per female) of population. Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  22. Who is faced with implosive demographics today? • Russia -0.6% NIR • 142 mill. 2009 to 133 mill. In 2025 • Germany -0.2% NIR • 82.4 mill. 2009 to 79 mill. In 2025 • Italy 0.0% NIR • 61 mill. 2009 to 61 mill. In 2025 • Japan -0.0% NIR • 127.6 mill. 2009 to 119.3 mill. In 2025 Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  23. What are the risks of implosion? • The “graying” of the population. • A shrinking taxpayer base. Why? • How does migration and mobility effect the graying problem? Jeff Cherry - CCISD

  24. The Future?? • Conservative view is that the world’s population will see 9.5 billion by the year 2050. • We may then see a gradual leveling off. • 10% of the world will be over 65 years old! Jeff Cherry - CCISD

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