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Modeling the effects of climate change on multiple ecosystem services. Marc Conte, Josh Lawler, Erik Nelson, and Sarah Shafer. Marc Conte Stanford University Natural Capital Project. Ecosystem services.
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Modeling the effects of climate change on multiple ecosystem services Marc Conte, Josh Lawler, Erik Nelson, and Sarah Shafer Marc Conte Stanford University Natural Capital Project
Ecosystem services • Ecosystems provide a wide array of goods and services of value to people (ecosystem services) • Provision entails foregone intensive land-use • Tradeoff between social value of provision vs private payoffs • Service supply is determined by biophysical properties, based on land cover • Realized supply is a function of service supply and demand for services from society
Research questions • How will ecosystem services change as climate regimes shift? • How will land-use decisions that ignore climate change impact the provision and value of different services? • How would landowners alter land-use decisions if the impacts of climate change were considered?
Approach -- InVEST • GIS-based tool that uses biophysical and economic models to quantify and value a suite of ecosystem services • InVEST converts user-provided data into spatially-explicit outputs of service provision and valuation • Scenario-based model relevant for policymakers • Capacity to address biodiversity and multiple services • Tiered models provide outputs at varying spatial and temporal resolutions given data availability • Product of The Natural Capital Project
Approach -- Methodology • We compare provision under different climate regimes on predicted future landscapes in the Willamette Basin • Climates • 2000 (observed) • 2055 (estimated from Hadley GCM) • Landscapes (Hulse et al., 2002) • Planned Trend • Conservation • Development • We consider the impact of altered climate on • Water available for irrigation • Carbon storage and sequestration • Biodiversity
Approach -- Climate data • Future climate regime derived from the UKMO-HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM simulation under the A2 emissions scenario • Total monthly precipitation • Mean monthly temperature • The predicted climate variables were downscaled spatially to a 30-second grid covering the Willamette Basin (Lawler et al., in press)
Approach -- Irrigation • We focus on five different agricultural products • Blackberries/Raspberries • Blueberries • Strawberries • Wine grapes • CropWat 4.0 (FAO, 1992) predicts crop-specific irrigation demand based on local climate regime
Approach -- Carbon • Changes in carbon storage and sequestration are driven by changes in vegetative cover due to climate change • We track carbon stored in biomass and soil • Given timber harvest in the area, we consider the extent to which management might moderate predicted veg change • Unmanaged scenarios -- maps show all changes predicted by cover model • Managed scenarios -- maps identify changes that cannot be mitigated by society
Approach -- Biodiversity • Calculate a marginal biodiversity value for each parcel (500 ha hexagon) • MBV~proportion of total biodiversity contained on parcel • Function of number of species with potential range overlapping the parcel • Function of fraction of each species’ compatible habitat area contained by the parcel (breeding or foraging) • Consider change in MBV from 2000 to 2050 climates • In 2000, data on 190 native species • Allow movement into/out of Basin under future climate regime
Concluding thoughts • Climate change will impact social welfare through effects on ecosystem-service provision • Land-use plans can be adjusted to mitigate welfare impacts of climate change • Land management may help offset welfare impacts of climate change • http://invest.ecoinformatics.org