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INTRODUCTION

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INTRODUCTION

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  1. Pacific RegionWFO Guam, WFO Honolulu andCentral Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)Operational use of Ocean Surface Vector Winds (SVW)Roger EdsonScience and Operations Officer, WFO GuamWes Browning Science and Operations Officer, WFO Honoluluhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/

  2. INTRODUCTION • Operational missions of WFOs in the Pacific Region (extensive ocean area) • Access to QuikSCAT data • Examples of uses over the Oceans • Uses of Scatterometer data with Tropical Cyclones • Fixing ‘problem’ areas • Combining the scatterometer winds with other data • Satellite Imagery (visual, infrared and microwave) • Surface Reports (station, ship, aircraft reconnaissance and buoy data)

  3. Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu, HI Services (Local and National Programs) • Public (Hawaiian Islands) • Marine (Coastal and Offshore waters) • Aviation Terminal forecasts, en-route significant weather) • Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air “balloon”) • Central Pacific Hurricane Center/CPHC (140W-180) • Marine Waters/Ocean Prediction Center (High Seas) • Aviation/Aviation Weather Center (SIGMETS)

  4. Regional Areas of Responsibility - HonoluluCentral Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)…RedMarine Warnings/OPC (High Seas)…BlueAviation Warnings (SIGMETS)…Yellow 180 (CPHC) 140W 20N 130E (Aviation) EQ (Marine area) 157E 120W 25S

  5. Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Tiyan, Guam Services • Public (Marianas, Micronesian main islands) • Marine (coastal waters to 45 miles) • Aviation (terminal forecasts, en-route significant weather) • Tropical Cyclone (local warnings for 37 islands/atolls), Issue Public Advisories*. • Hazardous/Severe Weather (flood, wind, surf) • Observation (surface, twice-daily upper-air “balloon”) • Fire Weather

  6. Area of Responsibility Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Tiyan, Guam • United States: GU, CNMI (Saipan) • International: Palau, FSM (Chuuk,Pohnpei), Marshalls 4.7 million sq mi

  7. NOTE: Includes Super Typhoons Number of Typhoons within 180, 120 and 60 Nautical Miles of (Saipan)-by Month, 1945-2002 Within 180 NM: 61 typhoons in 54 years = 1.1 per year Within 120 NM: 39 typhoons in 54 years = 0.7 per year Within 60 NM: 19 typhoons in 54 years = 0.35 per year

  8. Which Ocean Surface Vector Winds (SVW) do we use? - Scatterometer - Windsat? - SSMI? - Cloud vector winds?

  9. QuikSCAT WindSAT TRMM TD 02E Windsat

  10. ACCESS to Scatterometer DATA

  11. OPC - QuikSCAT Winds available inN-AWIPS 1.5 to 2.5 hours after pass time 25 km resolution winds in AWIPS 12.5 km winds on in N-AWIPS Use most recent passes in surface analysis and warning process Highest winds observed – 95 knots North Atlantic – January 20, 2002 (previously observed 80 knots) From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

  12. Use of Scatterometer winds from NMAP on N-AWIPsWFO Honolulu only (analysis tool)

  13. Hand Analysis of Scatterometer winds at WFO Guam (Analysis ability not available on Guam AWIPS)

  14. QuikSCAT (SeaWinds) SCATTEROMERDAILY COVERAGE(90%/day) From: NOAA/NESDIShttp://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/quikscat/ Guam Guam QUIKSCAT (Ascending ~ 6AM) Available Approx +2 ½ hr after overhead ~8:30 AM/PM QUIKSCAT (Descending ~ 6PM)

  15. NAVY: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil (PUBLIC ACCESS) (FNMOC –GFS/NOGAPS solutions) up to 72 hours X

  16. FNMOC (NRT-AVN) vs. FNMOC (NOGAPS) Wind Solutions Model Comparisons: (AVN versus NOGAPS)Search strategy: Bogus versus no-Bogus center? -AVN FNMOC- FNMOC- Circulation Center No Circulation ‘Finaled’

  17. NOAA/NESDIS Storm Page (3-views) Ambiguity Solutions (2 deg grid) Wind Vectors NRCS oV-pol forward

  18. New Views from FNMOC TC PageQuikSCAT Additions: AVN-NRT, NOGAPS, AMB

  19. QuikSCAT on the WFO Guam Web Page

  20. Analyses Requiring Ocean SVW DATA

  21. Streamline Analysis - Greater detail possible with QUIKSCAT data

  22. Pacific Surface Analysis using QuikSCAT Winds From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

  23. Obtaining Gale and Hurricane-force Winds from Scatterometer Hurricane Force Winds From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

  24. Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean (NOAA/NESDIS View)

  25. Scat ambiguities within monsoon trough axis

  26. Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean -Contribution to the Ocean wave model Typhoon Sonca Amplitude/Period Guam Dispersion Fetch and Period Typhoon Swell Calculation

  27. WFO Guam Watches and Warnings Criteria • Criteria for issuing a Watch: When damaging winds are possible within 48 hours. • A Typhoon Watch is issued when a JTWC forecast indicates that a tropical cyclone will be at typhoon intensity when it passes and damaging winds (39 mph or more) are possible within 48 hours.

  28. Determining light wind regions with the NRCS DATA

  29. QuikSCAT as a forensic tool USCG requested assistance for accident investigation Ferry sinking in Red Sea QuikSCAT played substantial role Winds available in data sparse areas Confidence in data Easily accessible archive From: Dave Feit (NCEP/OPC)

  30. Satellite winds in knots valid 2 Feb 2006 at 1531 UTC

  31. Uses with Tropical Cyclone Analysis • (primarily done manually) • (requires extensive ‘training’) • Positioning • Movement • Intensity (obtaining a ‘min’ maximum) • Wind radii • Extratropical Transition • Genesis

  32. Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean (NAVY View) Typhoon Sudal (03W) April 5, 2004 Yap Palau

  33. “Key” 2- and 3- way solutions near center

  34. Hand Analysis of tropical cyclone region using Scatterometer ambiguities at WFO Guam

  35. Overlays from NRL TC Page FNMOC (AVN) QuikSCAT Data Overlays (Vis/IR/MI) - Winds - Ambiguities - NRCS

  36. NORMALIZED RADAR CROSS SECTION Toward-scan wind Eye Along-scan winds Create dark band

  37. Reasons for delayed intensification (multi-circulation interaction) QuikSCAT NRCS

  38. Scat winds overlay over NRCS and 37Ghz data --Look for low wind and low rain region

  39. Determination of TC Wind radii

  40. 35kt 50kt X 65kt+ 35kt OverlayQuikSCAT winds and ambiguities over MI - 37Ghz imagery

  41. Wind Radii along edge of swath

  42. Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean - Wind radii (with microwave imagery) TyphoonNabi

  43. Scatterometer Winds over the Ocean --Helping find difficult tropical cyclone positions/genesis Yap Palau X – False Location TD 01W

  44. Break-out TC (failed) JTWC Best Track TD 01W Monsoon Dep 01W

  45. HURRICANE CINDY—Extratropical TransitionQuikSCAT Winds Purple/Black > 40kt Red > 30kt Yellow > 20kt Tropical Extratropical Transition Extratropical 28/09Z 31/21Z 04/08Z 115kt 50kt

  46. Extratropical Transition Intensity

  47. Large Eye/Eyewall Cycle

  48. Scatterometer Analysis over Tropical Cyclone: Conclusions • Coverage is excellent, virtually catching entire life cycles of Tropical Cyclones • Excellent verification for wind speeds outside of rain-affected light wind regions • Wind signal appears (is) ‘good’ in excess of 60-80kt in NRT • Rain flag procedure clearly overestimated in the current NRT (MUDH) approach! USE the ambiguity solutions to determine the ‘true’ rain effect on the wind vector cell • Tropical cyclone center positions, a ‘min’ wind intensity, and the outer wind structure can all be obtained with knowledge of the ambiguity selection procedure and understanding the ‘true’ effect on rain. • Always try to combine with other data/ reconnaissance tools!

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