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Amazon deforestation and climate change in a fully coupled model simulation

Paulo Nobre , M. Malagutti, D. Urbano , R. de Almeida and E. Giarolla Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE. Amazon deforestation and climate change in a fully coupled model simulation. Apoio:. Motivation I.

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Amazon deforestation and climate change in a fully coupled model simulation

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  1. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Paulo Nobre, M. Malagutti, D. Urbano, R. de Almeida and E. Giarolla InstitutoNacional de PesquisasEspaciais - INPE Amazon deforestation and climate change in a fully coupled model simulation Apoio:

  2. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Motivation I • The result of global warming over Brazil shall be the progressive substitution of tropical rainforest for a kind of vegetation less rich and stable than the Savanna, the lowgrowing vegetation of Africa, and similar to the Cerrado. • Source: 4th IPCC TAR, GT-II • 0.5 ha of Amazon rainforest are burnt to ground @ every 10 seconds, day and night, seven days a week (average for the last 30 years). • Source: INPE, program PRODES

  3. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al What is the role of Amazon savannization/deforestation on the global oceans? Motivation II

  4. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Experiment Design: Vegetation Scenarios CTR Nobre et al. (2008, accepted.)‏

  5. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al SST Atmospheric GCM ATMOSPHERIC MODEL PRESCRIBED

  6. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Momentum, heat & Fresh Water Daily Flux Exchanges SST Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM ATMOSPHERIC MODEL OCEAN MODEL

  7. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al SST forced Atmospheric GCM experiments Hindcast/Forecast Initialization IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP AGCM Atmos FCSTs Climo SST SFC Fluxes IC

  8. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Tau & Heat daily OGCM OGCM Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM experiments Coupled Forecast Initialization IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP AGCM Atmos FCSTs SST SFC Fluxes IC

  9. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Model/Experiment Description • Atmospheric Global Model • CPTEC’s AGCM T062 L28 • SSIB land-vegetation scheme • RAS convection scheme • Oceanic Global Model • GFDL’s OGCM (MOM_3) Global Tropics • ¼ x ¼ lat-lon deep tropics, 40S-40N • Coupling Strategy • Fully coupled (Momentum, Total Heat, E-P)‏ • Daily coupling interval • 10 member ensembles, • 20 years-long each run, • 4 vegetation scenarios.

  10. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Werth and Avissar (2002)'s AGCM Amazon deforestation experiment Source: extracted from Werth and Avissar (2002)‏

  11. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al CTRL Total deforest 25% rainfall reduction

  12. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al CTRL Total Deforest 40% rainfall reduction

  13. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al AmazonPrecipitation departures time series AGCM CGCM Total deforest Nobre et al. (2008, accepted.)‏

  14. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Eastern PacificPrecipitation departures time series AGCM CGCM Nobre et al. (2008, accepted.)‏

  15. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Ensemble Precip. Departures (100% Deforest minus Ctrl)‏

  16. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Ensemble Air Temp Departures(100% Deforest minus Ctrl)‏

  17. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al CGCM 100% deforest departures TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  18. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Atmospheric patterns changes in the coupled model results due to Amazon deforestation resemble those of warm ENSO conditions.

  19. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Niño 3.4 SST Departures CTRL 50% small 50% large 100% Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  20. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al 1st Joint SST-Tauxy EOFCGCM control run Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  21. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Joint SST-Tauxy EOFs Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  22. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al CGCM's PACIFIC CURRENTS Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  23. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)‏ Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  24. Amazon in Perspective - P. Nobre et al Summary • Atmospheric GCM generates local response to Amazon savannization: reduced rainfall and increased temperature; • Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM response to Amazon deforestation induces a relaxed ENSO-like state on the Pacific Ocean... • ...which feedbacks on Amazon climate, enhancing the local drying and warming responses found for the AGCM experiments.

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