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Missouri Dairy Farmers’ Survey

Report compiled by: Mario Mondelli Anne Felts Sarika Cardoso Dr. David O’Brien Contact: obriendj@missouri.edu . Missouri Dairy Farmers’ Survey.

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Missouri Dairy Farmers’ Survey

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  1. Report compiled by: Mario Mondelli Anne Felts Sarika Cardoso Dr. David O’Brien Contact: obriendj@missouri.edu Missouri Dairy Farmers’ Survey Survey Class Participants: Baatar Baljmar, Andrew Craver, Anne Felts, Keith Harris, Dianna Janashia, Billystrom Jivetti, Ryan Koury, Robin Loehner, Mario Mondelli, Amber Moody-Dyer, Mathew Pezold, Della StreatyWillhoit Division of Applied Social Sciences University of Missouri September 30, 2010

  2. RESEARCH QUESTIONS Q.1: Which farmers intend to stay in business? Q.2: Which farmers are most change-oriented?

  3. Methodology: Sample Survey • Sample Frame: DFA member farms in Missouri • Stratified by Farm Size • Surveys included in analysis: 145 (22% resp. rate) Table 1. Proportion of Different Farm Sizes in the Sample Farmers with less than 10 cows were eliminated from the sample * Based on farmers response to question: number of cows. Missing=3

  4. Figure 1. Educational Level of the Sample

  5. Figure 2. Ethnic Background of the Sample

  6. Figure 3. Organizational Structure of Sample Farms Production System Legal form

  7. Comparison of Sample Characteristics and MO and National Data Table 2. Comparison with farms in US and MO Table 3. Comparison with general population in US and MO

  8. Figure 4. Regional Distribution of the Sample NW-NC8% East4% West7% Central27% N=145 dairy farmers Southwest25% SouthCentral29%

  9. Table 4. Demographic and Organizational Characteristics by Farm Size • Main points: • As expected, larger size is associated with: • higher education • Higher productivity • For other variables, there is no clear pattern by the size of the farm * Q: I'm very involved in my church ; ** Q: I feel connected to my community

  10. Which Farmers Intend to Stay in Business? Dependent Variable: Intent to Stay in Business Scale based on respondents’ level of agreement (1-5) with the following questions: I encourage my children to enter the dairy business I intend for my children to take over the farm I will still be in the dairy business in 3 years / 5 years / 10 years I would (not) like to switch to another profession α Reliability = 0.72 Mean = 3.50; Standard Dev. = 1.16

  11. Independent Variable Scale: Management Adaptability • This scale is based on respondents’ level of agreement (1-5) with each of the following statements: • I actively monitor & review management strategies • I actively meet with partners to discuss mgmt strategies • I actively meet with partners to discuss business plan • α Reliability = 0.85 • Mean = 3.34; Standard Dev. = 1.32

  12. Independent Variable Scale: Optimism • This scale is based on the respondents’ assessment of how viable (range of 1-5) will be the following in the next 5 years: • Missouri dairy industry • Farmer’s local dairy industry • Own farm • α Reliability = 0.83 • Mean = 2.91; Standard Dev. = 0.91

  13. o Table 5. OLS Regression of Intent to Stay in Business on Selected Independent Variables (miss. mean subst.) Number of obs. = 136 F( 22, 113) = 8.85 Prob > F = 0.000 R-squared = 0.463 Root MSE = .927 Coef. Rob. Std. Err. p< Nonconventional knowledge (1-5) 0.09 0.09 0.34 Management Adaptability (1-5) 0.23 *** 0.09 0.01 Financial Adaptability (1-5) -0.14 0.14 0.30 Environmental Adaptability (1-5) 0.17 0.36 0.64 Optimism (1-5) 0.49 *** 0.10 0.00 Has or plan to change prod syst -0.36 * 0.19 0.07 Productivity (lbs/cow) 0.00 0.00 0.49 Size: Cows (heads) 0.00 0.00 0.30 Age (farmer) -0.02 ** 0.01 0.03 -0.34 * 0.19 0.07 Education (dummy=1 if attended>12years) Operator/spouse have non-farm job (dummy) 0.22 0.19 0.23 Farmer has children (dummy) -0.38 * 0.22 0.09 Community attachment (1-5) 0.18 ** 0.09 0.04 German Ethnic Origin (dummy) -0.08 0.19 0.66 Incorporated Firm (dummy) 0.14 0.29 0.63 Legal Partnership (dummy) 0.05 0.25 0.83 Limited Liability Corporation (dummy) 0.02 0.46 0.97 Confined prod system (dummy) 0.62 *** 0.24 0.01 Mixed prod system (dummy) 0.70 *** 0.22 0.00 Intensive Rot Grazing (dummy) -0.34 0.31 0.27 Region South-West (dummy) 0.41 ** 0.21 0.05 Region West (dummy) 0.08 0.43 0.86 _constant 1.51 0.70 0.03

  14. Table 6. Conclusions on Question 1 A dairy farmer’s greater desire to stay in business is associated with: Higher Management Adaptability Being more optimistic about his/her farm and the dairy industry Less likely to change the production system Being younger Having less education Not having children Being attached to the local community Having a confined or mixed production system (compared to a pasture based production system) Being in Southwest Missouri Desire to stay in business is Not associated with: Farm Size ( number of cows) Productivity

  15. Question 2: Which Farmers are Most Change-Oriented? Dependent (Dummy) Variable: Change Production System 1 = farmer has changed dominant production system over the past 5 years orintends to change the system over the next 5 years 18.1% (26 out of 144 respondents) 0 = farmer did not change his dominant production system over the past 5 years and has no intent to change over the next 5 years 81.9 % (118 out of 144 respondents)

  16. Independent Variable Scale: Non-Conventional Knowledge The scale is based on responses (1-5) to the following: Frequency of communication via computer Knowledge of pasture-based systems Knowledge of rotational grazing systems α Reliability = 0.62 Mean = 3.19; Standard Dev. = 1.02

  17. Table 7. UnivariateDifferences Between Change and No Change Farmers *** Significant at the 1% level; ** Sig. at the 5% level; * Sig. at the 10% level ns = non significant difference

  18. FarmerCharact-eristics FarmCharact-eristics

  19. How to Interpret Odds Ratios (OR) in Logistic Regression • A farmer with one more unit of non-conventional knowledge is 2.63 times more likely to change the production system • An odds ratio < 1 indicates a negative relationship

  20. Table 9. Conclusions on Question 2 The higher propensity of a farmer to change his/her production system is associated with: Higher non-conventional knowledge Lower propensity to stay in the dairy business A farm with confined or mixed production systems (compared to pasture-based prod system) Being an Incorporated farm Being younger Change is Not associated with: Size, Productivity, Education, non-farm job, Regions

  21. Appendix – Additional Data

  22. Farmer Demographics: Children • 86% Primary Farm Operators have children • Average number of children = 2.85 • 61 % of children were male • 51 % of children work on farm • 39 % of those that work on farm, work full-time

  23. Mode of Communication Frequency of use of the following to communicate farm issues:

  24. Mode of Communication (cont’d) How often does the Primary Farm Operator use these as sources of farm information?

  25. Involvement in Agricultural Organizations 28% of Primary Farm Operators reported holding leadership positions in one or more of these agricultural organizations All respondents were members of Dairy Farmers of America

  26. Environmental Management • 90% (n=108) of Respondents have not received a complaint about environmental issues in the past 12 months

  27. Analysis of Services used by Primary Farm Operator

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