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The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment

The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment. David Novak Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Ed Danaher, Dan Petersen, Rich Bann, Mike Musher, Chris Hedge and Many participants and contributors. 1. Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC. Description.

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The Inaugural Hydrometeorological Testbed – HPC Winter Weather Experiment

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  1. The Inaugural HydrometeorologicalTestbed– HPC Winter Weather Experiment David Novak Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Ed Danaher, Dan Petersen, Rich Bann, Mike Musher, Chris Hedge and Many participants and contributors 1

  2. HydrometeorologicalTestbed– HPC Description A component of the NOAA HMT Goal: To accelerate R2O-O2R to enhance HPC services Roles: • Identify and test new techniques to improve HPC forecasts • Provide training in new techniques to HPC forecasters • Host visiting forecasters and scientists • Principal Collaborators: • Other NOAA Testbeds (e.g. HWT, AWT) • Forecasters and academia 2

  3. HPC Winter Weather DeskOverview Internal deterministic 6-h snow /sleet /ZR / SLR grids & graphics http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/internal/ • Public products: • 24 & 48 h probabilities for: • -Snow/Sleet/ Freezing Rain • -Probabilities computed from deterministic forecast and model spread Track forecasts for surface lows associated w/ significant winter weather Heavy Snow and Ice Discussion (QPFHSD) 3

  4. HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011 Participants • 14 participants (WFO, SPC, AWC, HPC, • EMC, ESRL, and COMET) Goals • Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount? • Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts? • Approach • Create snow and ice accumulation forecasts using experimental guidance • Write “confidence discussion” • Subjectively evaluate experimental guidance 4

  5. A Great Time to Have an Experiment Jan 10 – Feb 11, 2011 Mean 500 hPa height Dec 24-28, 2010 Jan 9-13, 2011 Jan 26-27, 2011 Feb 1-3, 2011 • Several major winter • weather events • Period of unusually low hemispheric predictability from late January – early February 5

  6. Experimental Data High Resolution Goals • Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount? Ensemble 6

  7. HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment Can high-resolution models improve Day 1 forecasts of precipitation type and amount? • Pros: • Improved orographic precipitation, lake effect • Visualizing temporal evolutions • Providing unique fields (simulated reflectivity) • Explicit prediction of mesoscale bands • Cons: • Overall amounts not superior to operational • Little additional confidence in band location Neutral Useful Not Useful Experimental NAM HRW-ARW HRW-NMM Observed Band Band Band 7

  8. Feb 2-4, 2011 Snowstorm Snowfall Simulated Reflectivity experimental 4 km NMMB model (to become operational this fall) * Low Tracks Obs Exp NAM NAM 03Z Tuesday Feb 01 to 12Z Wednesday Feb 02 8

  9. HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment • Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts? Storm track: “Fairly confident of storm track, though high resolution models seem to deepen low center more and pull it further north and west into the cold air.” Confidence: “above average confidence that an area near Chicago will receive up to 20" of snow.” Snow Probs: >12": 80% >20": 20% 9

  10. HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment • Can we better quantify and communicate winter weather uncertainty for Day 1-2 forecasts? Forecast team’s confidence was qualitatively correlated to snowfall errors When forecast teams rated their snow forecast confidence as low (high), there were generally larger (smaller) errors 10

  11. Operational Impacts NWP Identified NAM snow depth limitations Diagnosed “strange band” in HRW-NMM Fixed before implementation 11

  12. Operational Impacts HPC Winter Weather Desk • Exposed forecasters to cutting-edge tools and techniques • Increased confidence in using NMMB (upgraded NAM) for winter weather forecasting. • Revealed substantial limitations of ice accumulation analysis used for verification. Exploring alternatives. • Revising guidelines to include confidence information in HPC Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion. 12

  13. 2012 Experiment Plans Jan 9 – Feb 10 2012 • Assess, quantify, and communicate uncertainty • Explore how humans can add value to probabilistic products • Evaluate experimental ensemble systems from EMC, HMT and AFWA • Evaluation of ensemble clusters and QPF bias-correction • Evaluate societal impacts • Explore categorizing impacts of forecasts (low, moderate, high, historic) • Calculate impact by using joint probabilities • Expand participation • Goal of 3 forecasters per region, NCEP, NSSL, ESRL involvement 13

  14. Summary Inaugural HMT-HPC Winter Weather Experiment conducted Participants had a neutral-to-positive view of the operational utility of high resolution models for winter weather Human forecast teams showed skill in anticipating errors in their forecasts (confidence – skill relationship) 2012 Experiment planned for Jan-Feb 2012 Full detailed report with recommendations at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/hmt/HMT_HPC_WWE_Summary_Final.pdf If interested, contact david.novak@noaa.gov 14

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