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High District Student Retention is Good Fiscal Policy

High District Student Retention is Good Fiscal Policy. Alternative Futures for Uxbridge Tax Dollars. MSBA: Pre-Probation Retention of HS Students > 80% (5 and 10-yr averages). MSBA: Post-Probation Retention of HS Students = 68% (5-yr average).

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High District Student Retention is Good Fiscal Policy

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  1. High District Student Retention is Good Fiscal Policy Alternative Futures for Uxbridge Tax Dollars

  2. MSBA: Pre-Probation Retention of HS Students > 80% (5 and 10-yr averages) MSBA: Post-Probation Retention of HS Students = 68% (5-yr average) Post-Probation, nearly 1 out of every 3 HS aged students leaves the Uxbridge School District.

  3. The Costs We’ve Seen Where will this take us over the next 20 years?

  4. Where Is Our Tax Money Going? $2.52 Million Net Out in 2010 • Post-Probation, almost1 in 3 • Of Uxbridge’s High School Age Children • Are Educated Outside of the District • This Financial Obligation must be addressed prior to Municipal Needs. • Over a 20-year span, the time needed to fund • the Athletic Fields project, is on pace to exceed $52 million. $ $ $ Valley Tech $ $ $ $ In 2010, Uxbridge School Choice Out + BVT – School Choice In = $2,526,364 Sent to Other Districts in One Year. Prior to Probation in 2003-2004, the Uxbridge District Student Retention Rate for 8th graders moving to 9th grade averaged over 80% for the previous 5 and 10-year periods.

  5. Actual Town Figures: 2002-2009Projections based on average figures at 68% retention of High School students: Post-Probation If this trend is not reversed, our costs will look like this over the next 20 years.

  6. Actual Town Figures: 2002-2009Projections based on average figures at 80% retention of High School students: Pre-Probation If this trend is reversed, our costs might look like this over the next 20 years.

  7. Probation cost to Tax Payers: 2005 to 2009$6,976,508by dropping from 80% to 68% HS student retention BVT spending- 68% Retention of Students SC-OUT spending- 68% Retention of Students BVT spending- 80% Retention of Students SC-OUT spending- 80% Retention of Students Using these historic figures, the Cost of Waiting to reverse this trend is $1.3 million per year in Uxbridge tax revenue spent in other towns.

  8. How many students is 80%? Using the MSBA rate of 68% retention and enrollment projections for Uxbridge School District for FY2012, a retention rate of 80% returns 22 students to each of the HS grades.

  9. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80%

  10. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% According to the MSBA, prior to UHS status change to “Probation” in 2003, Uxbridge retained 80% of its students between grades 8 and 9. According to the MSBA, since the UHS status change to “Probation” in 2003, Uxbridge retains just 68% of its students between grades 8 and 9. -- MSBA letter to Superintendent Zini, July 7, 2009 Using 5-year average costs for pre- and post-2003, these figures represent the range for School Choice Out dollars for the next 20 years. The new high school is designed for 80% retention of 8th graders.

  11. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% According to Town documents, School Choice In dollars have been fairly consistent, regardless of UHS probationary status. Using 5-year average figures for pre- and post-2003, these numbers represent the range for School Choice In dollars for the next 20 years.

  12. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% Prior to UHS status change to “Probation” in 2003, Uxbridge’s share of BVT enrollment was 14%. Since the UHS status change to “Probation” in 2003, Uxbridge’s share of BVT enrollment has grown to 18%. Using 3-year average enrollment shares for pre- and post-2003, most recent available, adjusted for 3-year average costs, these figures represent the range for BVT dollars for the next 20 years at either 18% or 14% enrollment.

  13. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% In 2003, once the Town of Uxbridge could not offer a high school that was “on par” with surrounding communities, retention of 8th graders dropped from a 5-year, pre-probation average of 80% to a 5-year, post-probation average of 68%. Between 2005 and 2009, the added costs, School Choice Out + In + BVT at 68% retention were more than what Uxbridge would have spent at 80% retention by $6,976,508 In just five years. Without athletic fields, does Uxbridge offer that which is offered by neighboring communities? Quality Education Properly Accredited Athletic Fields

  14. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% In 2003, probationary status changed the course of the Town’s District Student Retention from 80% to 68%. By increasing the Town’s financial obligation from $1,036,003 per year for the 5 years before probation to $2,431,305 per year for the 5 years after probation, the Town has cost an extra $6,976,508 in tax money from 2005 to 2009. Does a high school without fields correct this course? Are there better uses for what could approach $24 million of Uxbridge tax revenue over the next 20 years than subsidizing other schools in the Blackstone Valley?

  15. COMPARISION OF TOWN DOLLARS, 2012-2032,AT CURRENT 8th GRADE DISTRICT STUDENT RETENTION OF 68% VS TARGET OF 80% X Which of these is the appropriate choice for our school district and our tax dollars? The $20 million difference is revenue that will not be available for Municipal Operations. What will make up the difference for Town Ops?

  16. Is District Retention more likely to approach 80% with or without Athletic Fields? As Uxbridge Student Retention Increases, Municipal Resources Increase “Probation” has driven away over 86 HS students per year. How many return to a school without Athletic Fields? From 2005 to 2009, the annual, relative cost of 68% student retention was over $1.3 million per year.

  17. There is more at stake in this vote than Athletic Fields. History has shown that the Fiscal Health of Uxbridge is a function of parents’ perception of a complete high school product.

  18. High District Student Retention is Good Fiscal Policy Alternative Futures for Uxbridge Tax Dollars

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