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Losing Air Dominance?

Losing Air Dominance?. Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning. Operation Desert Storm, 1991. 23,455. 43,735. What is Air Dominance?. Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals Freedom to attack …any target, with mission success Freedom from attack …defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs

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Losing Air Dominance?

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  1. Losing Air Dominance? Hard Lessons in Strategic Planning

  2. Operation Desert Storm, 1991 23,455 43,735 What is Air Dominance? • Air superiority over enemy to meet joint force goals • Freedom toattack…any target, with mission success • Freedom fromattack…defeat of enemy fighters and SAMs • Freedom tomaneuver…for forces on land or sea

  3. Iraq and Afghanistan Sorties Flown 2004 to 2008 Munitions Dropped 2004 to 2008

  4. The Plan After 1991 • Success of F-117 in 1991 Gulf war set Air Force position on stealth • Fighter force structure cut by 44% as Cold War ended • Replacement strategy: • 1991: Advanced Tactical Fighter program down-select to maintain air dominance technologies • 1994: Joint Strike Fighter research initiated as affordable stealth fighter/attack to replace F-16 and A-10 force structure • “Never again buy a non-stealthy fighter”– Chief of Staff Gen. McPeak

  5. Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1963-2008 Today’s CAF purchased *Estimates 59 F-117s

  6. The Force Mix Active Component 1995 Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 • Force healthy in mid-1990s • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force • 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs. TAI Active Only

  7. 2003 Operation Iraqi Freedom: Aircraft Felt Their Age Mission Capable Rates Operation Desert Storm vs. Operation Iraqi Freedom • Decline from Operation Desert Storm averaged over 10% • F-15C average age = 18 years Desert Storm: Data 28 Feb 91 Iraqi Freedom: Data Average

  8. F-22s • F-22 is first supersonic stealth aircraft • 2 engine, supercruise design with ample internal missiles • Designed to assure air dominance through fleet life ~2040 • Depends on number of aircraft procured

  9. F-117: Stealth attack of heavily defended targets From Three Fighters to One 200 • F-15E: Advanced air-to-ground platform 55 410 • F-15: Air superiority fighter with 100 kills, no air combat losses 665 Total Active F-15, F-15E and F-117 F-22 183 Currently Funded 381F-22s Air Force Requirement

  10. How to See Stealth • In contrast, the F-22 has four internal weapons bays and targeting integrated with its avionics NOT STEALTH • This F-15E from Lakenheath on an OIF mission carried fuel, targeting pods, air-to-ground weapons and air-to-air missiles externally STEALTH • Internal fuel and weapons bays greatly improve the F-22’s stealth • The two side-bay doors are open here

  11. F-22 and F-35: Partnership F-22 technology development and risk reduction flow to F-35 Radar F119/F120 Engine Development Integrated, open architecture avionics Unique F-22 Capabilities Computer-based maintenance Advanced LO Materials and Manufacturing

  12. True to Plan: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015 1991 Gulf War F-22 and F-35 would have led to smaller force, more precision and survivability, no legacy aircraft Estimate

  13. Comptroller’s Plan December 2004: PBD 753 (FY06 PB) • PBD 753 cut $10B from F-22 program (100 aircraft) • Pushed long-term funding far below stated requirement $10.5B Cut $46.1B Cut ~2,167 req’t. ~ 1772 QDR ~1285 funded F-15E More O&S costs for old Fighters F-15C 197 F-22 190

  14. Crisis: Major Fighter Aircraft Buys 1988-2015 1991 Gulf War Budget cuts shrink force below QDR requirement Estimate

  15. The Legacy Force Mix Active Component Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 • Steady fighter buys in 1980s recapitalized force • From 1990 to 2008, active fighter and attack force shed ~1000 aircraft • 1995: Legacy fighters over 18 years less than 1% of active force • 2008: Legacy fighters over 18 years 55% of active force Only 6 aircraft over 18 yrs. 784 aircraft over 18 yrs. TAI Active Only

  16. F-22 Force Sizing Elmendorf AFB 2 Langley AFB NATO: No F-22s 2 2 1 CENTCOM AOR Holloman AFB PACOM AOR Hickam AFB Current: • Program of Record is 183 total aircraft buy • Will yield ~126 Combat-Coded Aircraft • 7 Squadrons18 PAA Considerations: • New administration budget guidance • F-22 availability for NATO • PACOM force structure • Option for Japan*

  17. Threat Environment 2884 Iraqi Surface to Air Missile Launches in 2003 • Iraq 2003: 2884 launches in 25 days • Peak: 190 launches on Day 15 • Persistent mobile SAMs moved daily • SA-2, SA-3, SA-6s, Rolands • 66% were unlocated despite 12 years of operations and one year of accelerated SAM destruction • Kosovo 1999: 894 SAM launches in 78 days • Peak: 43 launches on Day 39 Threats can persist for weeks even against older defenses US forces have not yet faced SA-20 SA-20

  18. Red Air Lethal SAMS and Red air • ~1200 F-10 advanced 4th Gen fighters in production • DIA estimates similar to Typhoon, Rafale • Su-30 and Su-33 purchases • Work on AWACS-like system based on IL-76 • Acquisition of 8 Russian air refueling aircraft • Complete radar coverage of all borders “You will be outnumbered…”ADM Willard, Commander, US Pacific Fleet, Sep 2008 PRC F-10 Source: DoD Report, 2006

  19. Getting Back on Track? • Ratio gets worse, before it gets better • Fighter force reaches 80% legacy circa 2014 • Recovers to 62% legacy circa 2020 • Assumes 243 total F-22s • Assumes ramp rate to 80 USAF F-35s per year • Active total inventory declines to 1320 • Guard and Reserve forces steadily age out • Fighter and attack force highly capable but limited in number of joint tasks it can serve Active Fighter and Attack Aircraft A-10, F-4, F-111, F-15, F-15E, F-16, F-117, F-22 Estimate TAI Active Only

  20. F-22 Termination Options Current Program Lot 10 then defer to QDR Analysis Yields ~203 F-22s Maintain service life to 2038 CJCS: “60” Fleet Size 183 220 240 260 280 339 381 200 300 OSD USAF Lot 10 Lot 11 Lot 12 • Sustain force with 3 more lots • 20-24 acft per lot • Synchronize with F-35 way forward • Hedge F-35 concurrency risk • 10 squadrons total • Take from back-up inventory, training and attrition reserve to create 10 squadrons

  21. Way Ahead… • Biggest risk: restricting program build-up from 2010 to 2015 • No service depends more on F-35 than the USAF • Only program of maturity and scale to maintain USAF fighter and attack missions • Essential for Navy, Marine Corps and allies

  22. F-22 Workforce Impact “I can throw a blanket over the production line to keep it warm, but what about the people?” -- F-22 Program Manager If Production Continues Jobs Lost at F-22 Production Termination 17,000 Direct F-22 Jobs by State • F-22 has 26,657 direct jobs in 2008 • At full rate, F-35 will transfer 5300 jobs* some to other programs • 4,400 jobs remain on F-22 after 2011 • Permanent loss of 17,000 highly skilled jobs

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