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Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis

This study examines the high school completion rate and predictors of dropout behavior using administrative school records. The research aims to identify when students are most likely to leave school and the factors associated with high school completion.

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Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis

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  1. Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles Hirschman University of Washington and Joseph Willhoft, OSPI, State of Washington UW-BHS Project Workshop October 19, 2007

  2. National estimates from the Census Bureau Cohorts from the early-1960s

  3. Figure 2. Students enrolled, by Grade Level: Averages for Academic Years from 1997-98 to 2004-05.

  4. Research Questions • What is the high school completion rate? • If exiting is a problem, when are students leaving school? • What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

  5. Administrative School Records • Enrolled students: (courses & grades) • Typically tabulated in aggregate data • Collaborative with school district research office • Possible to match students across years • Unique student ID and birthday • Major limitation • Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers • Defined universe • First time 9th graders in school district • Track for 6 years and measure “net exits” • 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)

  6. Research Questions—Part One • What is the high school completion rate? • When are students most likely to drop out of school? • What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

  7. The Process of School Progression and Attrition END OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YR GRADUATION STATUS END OF 1ST YR not enrolled not enrolled not enrolled not enrolled 434 Net Exits Drop Outs/ Transfersa 109 Late/Possible Graduatesb retained retained retained Initial Cohort : 1,000 students enrolled in 9th on-track on-track on-track on-track 457 on-time Graduates • Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers). • Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.

  8. The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4 9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99). END OF 1ST YR END OF 2ND YR 70 not enrolled 189 not enrolled .84 .14 .07 .14 140 retained .14 .02 Initial Cohort : 1,000 students enrolled in 9th 930 on-track 671 on-track .93 .72

  9. The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4 9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99). END OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YR GRADUATION STATUS END OF 1ST YR 70 not enrolled 189 not enrolled 303 not enrolled 407 not enrolled 434 Net Exits Drop Outs/ Transfersa .92 .96 .98 .84 .41 .34 .12 .09 .35 .07 .07 .01 .14 .04 .02 109 Late/Possible Graduatesb 140 retained 163 retained 100 retained .14 .64 .54 .40 .14 .07 .02 .01 .11 .11 .19 .02 .01 .05 Initial Cohort: 1,000 students enrolled in 9th 930 on-track 671 on-track 534 on-track 493 on-track 457 on-time Graduates .72 .77 .86 .92 .93 • Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers). • Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.

  10. Who are the ‘exiters’? • Two types: • Dropouts • Out of district out-transfers • Unable to differentiate at individual level • Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation techniques • We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either: 1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout.

  11. For 4 Cohorts of 9th graders (1996-98), Percentage of Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553) Graduates: ~69% Non-Graduates: 31% 16% Dropout 16%Transfer-Dropout

  12. Research Questions—Part Two • What is the high school completion rate? • If drop-out is a problem, when are students leaving school? • What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?

  13. Percent Distribution of the Dependent Variables

  14. Independent Variables • Background: “Risk Factors” • Race/Ethnicity • Gender • Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas) • Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) • Transferred into district for 9th grade • Educational Experiences: • Over-age (indicator of prior retention) • 9th grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular • First semester 9th grade GPA

  15. Four Year High School Graduation by9th Grade 1st Semester GPA 16%a 21% 30% 32% 2% aPercent of Overall Population

  16. 9th Grade Failure • Strongest predictor of high school completion • 9th grade failure has an effect net of GPA in 8th • 35% of all student fail at least one class during their 1st semester of high school • 37% of all students have a GPA lt 2.0 • High levels of failure are pervasive • Not limited to select sub-populations • Failure occurs across all class types (i.e. not limited to ‘hard’ classes)

  17. Multivariate Analysis Results • Background and Educational Factors operate in fashion consistent with prior research • e.g. Poverty, Bad Neighborhoods, and Transferring increase risk of not completing high school • Most risk factors, but not all are mediated by school experiences, especially freshman marks • E.g. Hispanics have net disadvantage • E.g. SES “explains” most of African American disadvantage • Early failure (9th grade) is key predictor, mostly independent of risk factors

  18. Heuristic Model of High School Completion

  19. Concluding Thoughts • ~7 of 10 of students graduate from HS in 4 yrs • 46% graduate from this district (confirmed) • Another ~23% transfer and graduate (estimate) • High school attrition is a process • Begins before entering school • families, neighborhoods, & poverty • In the first few years many students fall behind and, subsequently, exit school. • Some dropout—others transfer, then dropout • Transition to High School (9th Grade) is a major challenge • Placement and 9th Grade GPA are key factors

  20. Thank you! • Paper available upon request: Contact Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej nickpc@u.washington.edu Or visit our project website: http://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/

  21. Possible Dependent Variables of High School Graduation • On-time high school graduation. • Delayed Graduation: 5 or 6 years • Still Enrolled (l0 – life table survival) • 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 9th grade

  22. How many student graduate? • ~46% of incoming 9th graders graduate from same district in 4 years. • Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69% • Most of the exiting occurs within first 2 years • Students tend to fall behind and then exit. • It is a process—not an event

  23. Four Year High School Graduation by Gender 52%a 49% aPercent of Overall Population

  24. Four Year High School Graduation by Family Income 58%a 42% aPercent of Overall Population

  25. Four Year High School Graduation by Race/Ethnicity 58%a 20% 15% 5% 2% aPercent of Overall Population

  26. Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade Retention 76%a 24% aPercent of Overall Population

  27. Four Year High School Graduation By Transferred into District for 9th Grade 15% 85%a aPercent of Overall Population

  28. Four Year High School Graduation by Race/Ethnicity 58%a 20% 15% 5% 2% aPercent of Overall Population

  29. Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade Retention 76%a 24% aPercent of Overall Population

  30. Four Year High School Graduation by 9th Grade English Class 69%a 18% 8% 3% 3% aPercent of Overall Population

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