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Pertemuan 14 NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL

Pertemuan 14 NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL. The Balance of Payments Account. General considerations A hypothetical illustration: deficits and debts. HUTANG LN. Transfer outflow: cicilan & bunga (To) Transfer inflow: bantuan/pinjaman baru (Ti)

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Pertemuan 14 NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL

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  1. Pertemuan 14NERACA PEMBAYARAN, HUTANG LN, INVESTASI ASING & KEUANGAN INTERNASIONAL

  2. The Balance of Payments Account • General considerations • A hypothetical illustration: deficits and debts

  3. HUTANG LN • Transfer outflow: cicilan & bunga (To) • Transfer inflow: bantuan/pinjaman baru (Ti) • Net tranfer (NT) = Ti – To • Th ‘81: NT NSB ke NM +US35,1M (aliran ke NSB) • Th ‘86: NT NSB Vs NM -US30,7M

  4. Third World Debt Crisis Net capital inflow, FN, is (14.1) Basic transfer, BT, is (14.2) Where d is percent increase in total debt D is total debt r is the average interest rate

  5. PENYEBAB NEGATIF NET TRANFER • Cicilan dan bunga pinjaman • Capital flight (-) • Foreign direct investment • Bantuan LN • Hibah multirateral

  6. PENANAMAN MODAL ASING & PERSH MULTINASIONAL • Two sources: • Private direct and portfolio investment • Public and private development assistance • AS paling banyak persh raksasa, diikuti jepang, jerman, Inggris, Prancis, Korsel • Di NSB awalnya pada industri ekstraktif dan primer; minyak bumi, logam, perkebunan

  7. Multinational Corporations: Size, Patterns, and Trends • MNCs are typically very large • Private foreign investment: pro dan contra for development

  8. Pendukung Investasi Asing • mengisi kesenjangan Invest-tabungan (saving gap) (model Harrod-Domar) G = s/k (s tabungan; g pertumbuhan output/GNP, k rasio modal-output) • Kesenjangan devisa (Trade gap) • Mengisi gap pajak-RAPBN • Gap manajemen, teknologi, kewiraswastaan: dg investor asing

  9. Penentang PMA • Alasan ekonomi: menghalangi perluasan persh DN; mempertinggi impor barang setengah jadi; fasilitas PMA berlebihan mengurangi penerimaan pajak, ketrampilan asing yg ditularkan kecil • Filosofis, ideologis: ketidakmerataan makin tinggi, mendorong konsumsi mewah, dg teknologi tinggi (tdk menyerap TK), SD DN dialokasikan pada proyek yg kurang profitable, kekuatan MNA pengaruhi kebijakan, menekan semangat wiraswasta lokal; menyuap pejabat (korupsi tinggi)

  10. Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Debate • Conceptual and measurement problems • Amounts and allocations: public aid • Why donors give aid

  11. BANTUAN LUAR NEGERI • Tujuan bantuan non-komersial • Syarat konsesional: suku bunga dan jangka waktu pengembalian lunak • Hibah harus dibedakan dengan pinjaman • Bantuan dg syarat, utk membeli barang2 negara donor; atau utk proyek tertentu (irigasi, penghijauan dlsb) mengurangi kadar bantuan • Nilai nominal dibedakan dgn riil (inflasi)

  12. Motivasi negara donor memberi bantuan • Politik: Amerika membantu eropa (marshall plan) utk mencegah komunis • Ekonomi: kesenjangan tabungan dan kesenjangan devisa: • SD produktif (TK) berlebih devisa utk impor barang investasi • SD produktif kurang, devisa utk impor barang konsumsi mewah, memicu inflasi

  13. Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Debate The two-gap model: savings constraint Where I is domestic investment F is the amount of capital inflows s is the savings rate Y is national income

  14. Foreign Aid: The Development Assistance Debate The two-gap model: foreign-exchange constraint Where I is domestic investment F is the amount of capital inflows E is the level of exports Y is national income m1 is the marginal import share m2 is the marginal propensity to import

  15. Mengapa NSB menerima bantuan donor • Menerima pendapat ekonom: mengatasi kelangkaan ekonomi, membantu transformasi ekonomi scr struktural, mendukung utk tinggal landas ke ekonomi mandiri. • Alasan politik: bantuan uang, militer • Moral: NM punya kewajiban membantu NSB krn pernah menjajah

  16. Effek bantuan LN • Substitusi thd investasi dan tabungan (memperburuk tabungan) • Memperburuk neraca pembayaran • Lebih ke sektor modern, memperlebar jurang kaya-miskin, sektor modern-tradisionil

  17. Conclusions: Toward a New View of Foreign Aid • Dissatisfaction among donors and recipients may create the possibility for new aid arrangements • Future aid is likely to be linked to market reforms and institutional capacity-building

  18. Amortization Balance of payments Basic transfer Brady plan Capital account Cash account Conditionality Current account Debt-for-equity swaps Debt-for-nature swaps Debtors’ cartel Debt repudiation Debt service Deficit Euro External debt Concepts for Review

  19. Hard currency International reserve account International reserves Macroeconomic instability Restructuring Special drawing rights (SDRs) Stabilization policies Structural adjustment loans Surplus Concepts for Review, cont’d

  20. Absorptive capacity Aid weariness Concessional terms Economic transition Emerging-country stock markets Foreign aid Foreign direct investment (FDI) Foreign-exchange gap Global factories Multinational corporation (MNC) Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) Official development assistance (ODA) Concepts for Review, cont’d

  21. Portfolio investment Productive resources Savings gap Technical assistance Tied aid Transfer pricing Two-gap model Concepts for Review, cont’d

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