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1. Lawyer Stuff. This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Contango that are intended to be covered by the safe harbor "forward-looking statements" provided by of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, based on Contango's current expectations and includes statem
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1. Contango Oil & Gas Company
2. 1 Lawyer Stuff
3. 2 ….More Lawyer Stuff
4. 3
5. 4 CONTANGO – a natural gas centric, non crude oil oriented – never to be confused with anything remotely related to manufacturing - company with a business model focused on drilling wildcat exploration wells with a minimum of debt and shareholder dilution
6. 5 Contango’s Core BeliefsFrom Inception
7. 6
8. 7 NYMEX Natural Gas Price Required to Earn a 10 % ROACE - UBS
9. 8 Value Creation and Risk
Find, Develop & Acquire Capex (last 3 fiscal years)….....$556 million
Reserves added ……………................................................408 Bcfe
F & D & A $1.36/Mcfe
DD&A for 12 months ended June 30, 2009……………...$1.17/Mcfe
A LOW DD&A IS NOT VALUE CREATION IF IT IS ACHIEVED THROUGH FULL COST POOL WRITE DOWNS
Debt adjusted PV-10 per Mcfe (PV-10 - Debt)/Mcfe:
June 30, 2009 (millions) ($890 - $0)/355 = $2.51 Gas Price: $4.09/Mcf
September 30, 2009 (millions) ($773 - $0)/347 = $2.23 Gas Price: $3.48/ Mcf
December 31, 2009 (millions) ($914 - $0)/350 = $2.61 Gas Price: $4.06/Mcf
10. 9 What Contango Doesn’t Have Lots of shares O/S
Lots of shareholders
Lots of options O/S
Lots of paid in capital vs R/E (SEE “PEAK RATIO”)
Lots of PUD’s
Lots of employees
Lots of wells
Lots of Landowners
Lots of Regulators
Near term leases expiring
L-T rig contracts
Debt
Severance Taxes
Hedges
11. 10 Contango’s Owners (As at 12/31/09)
12. 11 Investors should examine…… The PAST….
Does the company have a history of being profitable?
What’s their track record in creating value per share?
What about share price appreciation over past 5, 3, 1 year(s)?
……The PRESENT
How do current earnings/cash flow/reserves/production – all per share look?
What about value per share…per Mcfe…per employee?
……And the FUTURE
What are reasonable expectations about earnings per share growth ?
13. 12
14. 13 The Past History of Profits? The Balance Sheet has the Answer
Peak Ratio Defined: Shareholder Earnings = R/E + Dividends
Net Invested Capital Equity – (R/E + Dividends)
Contango’s Peak Ratio
Calculated as at 12/31/10: R/E + Dividends = $363.4 + 5.4 = $368.8 = 27.93X
Equity – (R/E + Dividends) $382-(363.4 + 5.4) $13.2
Peak Market Cap Ratio: Market Cap = Shares O/S x Price = $870 = 66X
Net Invested Capital Net Invested Capital $13.2
Growth in Book Value/Share ($/Share)
15. 14 STOCK PRICE APPRECIATIONONE YEAR COMPARISON Jan. 1, 2009 – Dec. 31, 2009
16. 15 STOCK PRICE APPRECIATIONTHREE YEAR COMPARISON Jan. 1, 2007 – Dec. 31, 2009
17. 16
18. 17 The Present Multiple Metrics; Per Share; Per Mcfe Produced; Per Employee
*For the 12 months ended, or, as at, 12/31/09, as appropriate
19. 18 The Future Ship Shoal 263 comes on mid-summer at 20 Mcfed
Dude (MI – 617) - Drilling
Eloise South/Dutch #5 - Drilling
Paisano (VM – 155) – Drilling
Spud Onshore Farm-In – Before June 30
Spud His Dudeness – Before Year-End
Lease Sale Prospects – March 17 – we were AHB on all three!
Conterra Onshore - Ongoing
CORE – End of year
20. 19 The Big Picture CHINA DRIVES CRUDE
World’s second largest economy (8.8% of global GOP)
Out competing U.S. in securing world’s crude oil
Keeps crude on the bid
SHALE GAS IS OUR SALVATION
U.S. has 100 years supply NatGas
Green keeps a bid on NatGas via power generation and transportation
Why subsidize people who hate us?
So simple even our Congress will figure it out……..Eventually
UP FRONT CAPITAL NEEDS ARE ENORMOUS
XOM – XTO
Devon GOM/INTL Sale to focus on shale
Technology will drive F&D costs lower
Red Queen depletion rates
BUT…DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE “ARB”
Service companies are “for profit” entities with hurdle rates too
Service Co’s consolidate…E & P’s proliferate
Landowner’s are increasingly sophisticated – no more 1/8th royalties
States/Counties/Parishes need money – fees, ad valorem, income, sales and severance taxes
Water In / Water Out: Reg’s and more Reg’s
LOTS OF GAS, BUT THE WIND IS AT OUR BACK
No Nuke’s nowhere near no one
Carbon capture can’t conflate coal consumption
Production profile plumped
21. 20
22. 21 GOM Economics
Acreage, G & G and seismic costs last 4 years combined: $10 million
NRI to Contango AFTER landowner ORRI and
AFTER G & G Promote: 70-72%
Severance Tax: 0%
Ad Valorem Tax: 0%
Sales & Use Tax: 0%
State Income Tax: 0%
LOE(1) $.50
G & A(1) $.20
If NAT GAS @ $3.92/Mcf – Contango Receives(1) $5.20/Mcfe
If Contango produces 64.9 Mcfd – Contango Sells (1) 85.2 Mcfed
Contango is a Taxpayer: We have no NOL Carry Forwards 35% Risk Partner
Contango is a Taxpayer at $2.00 Gas: Drill – Baby Drill Good
Rig costs are less than half of 2 year ago levels Better
One Landowner – MMS Excellent
Lot’s of nearby infrastructure Wonderful
No Nimby’s to deal with Priceless
Yes, we will drill dry holes – The E in E & P stands for Exploration Reality
(1) Average for 6 months ended December 31, 2009
23. 22 In Conclusion………..Do the Math………….
Who has positive retained earnings?
Who has lower DD & A (look to R/E)
Who has lower LOE? (include – W/O’s; SVC Tax; Insurance)
Who has lower debt?
Who has lower G & A? (Include – Cap G&A, “non-cash” option expense)
Who has more PDP Mcfe’s/Share?
Who has more exploration upside per share?
Who has more commodity price upside?
Who doesn’t have an NOL carry-forward? Who has a 35% partner?
Who has fewer shares today than 1,3,5,7,9 years ago?
Which CEO’s haven’t taken options the last 3 years? Incentives drive behavior.
24. 23 Golden Factoids: GOLD: Most precious of metals: Atomic Number 79: Au-Aurum – “Shining dawn”
YIELD: 0%
WEIGHT MEASURE: 1 Troy oz. = 31.12305 grams
MINED: Only 161,000 tonnes mined in history of the world, ± $6 Trillion in March 2010
CONSUMPTION: - Never Consumed – all gold ever found is still around
All the gold on earth could be held in a couple bank vaults
A worthless ore-body at $600/troy oz. can be a bonanza $1,100/troy oz.
New mined gold production has been declining for a decade
After two years of multitrillion spending , unemployment is ± 10% and the S & P 500 is where it was 12 years ago – NASDAQ is down 50%.
Gold since the beginning of time has been accepted as a store of value and offers wealth protection in times of deflation and inflation