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Sarah Minson California Institute of Technology

Potential of real-­time high-rate scientific, consumer, and crowd-­sourced GPS for earthquake early warning and rapid response. Sarah Minson California Institute of Technology. Real-time finite fault slip models for earthquake early warning. Sarah E. Minson

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Sarah Minson California Institute of Technology

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  1. Potential of real-­time high-rate scientific, consumer, and crowd-­sourced GPS for earthquake early warning and rapid response Sarah Minson California Institute of Technology

  2. Real-time finite fault slip models for earthquake early warning Sarah E. Minson California Institute of Technology Jessica R. Murray, John O. Langbein, Joan S. Gomberg U.S. Geological Survey

  3. What happens after an earthquake? • Real-time: • EEW • Location • Mw • Shortly thereafter: • Network response • Better location • Better Mw • Source mechanism • Much, much later: • Research/source studies • Fault geometry • Finite fault slip model • Kinematic rupture model Why not just do this in real-time?

  4. Moment saturation Mw 9.0

  5. Final Gavin Hayes and David Wald

  6. Let’s Play a Math Trick • Use Bayesian inference with a conjugate prior to derive: • Analytical expression for PDF describing all possible slip distributions • Analytical expression for the probability associated with any fault geometry

  7. Inversion Design • Assume an epicenter location from seismic EEW • Consider the set of faults centered at the epicenter with any strike and dip • Build discretized fault with total extent large enough to encompass rupture • Only include offsets from stations within expected P-wave range

  8. No moment saturation with GPS True Mw Evolution GPS Seismic EEW PTWC

  9. Tsunami early warning Best Slip Model Real-time Uniform Fault slip Seafloor uplift

  10. Conclusions • Real-time finite fault source models require only existing information: • EEW location • Real-time high-rate GPS streams • These models are not limited by computational expense. They are limited by the time it takes for the rupture to grow in size and information about the rupture to propagate

  11. Take-Home Message • For regions with both dense seismic networks and real-time high-rate GPS, we could have non-saturating magnitudes and finite fault slip distributions (and thus accurate warnings and shaking forecasts) in real-time starting today.

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