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Regression Using Boosting

A detailed exploration of boosting regression algorithms like AdaBoost R, SquareLev R, SquareLev C, ExpLev with a focus on Football Manager 2006 data for predicting player performance and game strategy optimization.

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Regression Using Boosting

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  1. Vishakh (vv2131@columbia.edu) Advanced Machine Learning Fall 2006 Regression Using Boosting

  2. Introduction • Classification with boosting • Well-studied • Theoretical bounds and guarantees • Empirically tested • Regression with boosting • Rarely used • Some bounds and guarantees • Very little empirical testing

  3. Project Description • Study existing algorithms & formalisms • AdaBoost.R (Fruend & Schapire, 1997) • SquareLev.R (Duffy & Helmbold, 2002) • SquareLev.C (Duffy & Helmbold, 2002) • ExpLev (Duffy & Helmbold, 2002) • Verify effectiveness by testing on interesting dataset. • Football Manager 2006

  4. A Few Notes • Want PAC-like guarantees • Can't directly transfer processes from classification • Simply re-weighting distribution over iterations doesn't work. • Can modify samples and still remain consistent with original function class. • Performing gradient descent on a potential function.

  5. SquareLev.R • Squared error regression. • Uses regression algorithm for base learner. • Modifies labels, not distribution. • Potential function uses variance of residuals. • New label proportional to negative gradient of potential function. • Each iteration, mean squared error decreases by a multiplicative factor. • Can get arbitrarily small squared error as long as correlation between residuals and predictions > threshold.

  6. SquareLev.C • Squared error regression • Use a base classifier • Modifies labels and distribution • Potential function uses residuals • New label sign of instance's residual

  7. ExpLev • Attempts to get small residuals at each point. • Uses exponential potential. • AdaBoost pushes all instances to positive margin. • ExpLev pushes all instances to have small residuals • Uses base regressor ([-1,+1]) or classifier ({-1,+1}). • Two-sided potential uses exponents of residuals. • Base learner must perform well with relabeled instances.

  8. Naive Approach • Directly translate AdaBoost to the regression setting. • Use thresholding of squared error to reweight. • Use to compare test veracity of other approaches

  9. Dataset • Data from Football Manager 2006 • Very popular game • Statistically driven • Features are player attributes. • Labels are average performance ratings over a season. • Predict performance levels and use learned model to guide game strategy.

  10. Work so far • Conducted survey • Studied methods and formal guarantees and bounds. • Implementation still underway.

  11. Conclusions • Interesting approaches and analyses of boosting regression available. • Insufficient real-world verification. • Further work • Regressing noisy data • Formal results for more relaxed assumptions

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