Developing tools for prison risk assessment: international perspectives and the case of Romania

1. GRADO | Bucharest | 6th May 2019 International Conference “Progress in the social reintegration of persons deprived of their liberty” Developing tools for prison risk assessment: international perspectives and the case of Romania Dr. Anamaria Szabo | Lecturer in Social Work De Montfort University | Leicester, UK | anamaria.szabo@dmu.ac.uk

2. Crime, risks and their measurement • Assessing risks in the prison environment • Risk assessment tools: functions, models • Prison risk assessment in Romania Outline

3. Crime, risks and their measurement • Categories of risks related to crime • Risk of reoffending: the probability of committing a new offence • Risk of escape: the probability of escaping prison units • Risk of harm / self-harm: the probability of harming others or harming themselves • Other aspects assessed in the prison environment • Needs (general) and criminogenic needs (related to prisoners’ crimes) • Measuring risks • Prognosis vs. diagnosis • Follows a ‘cumulative stochastic model’ (Helmus & Babchishin, 2017, 9) • Risk is a continuous construct: • It depends on factors that contribute (non-deterministically) to increasing/decreasing its probability • There’s no certainty that a person will do something, unless and until they do it and it’s evidenced

4. Assessing risks in the prison environment • European standards • Recommendation Rec2006(2) on the European Prison Rules: rules 16 , 51.3-51.5, 52.1, 103.2-103.4, 104.2-104.3 • Recommendation Rec(2003)22 on conditional release (parole): principles 37, 38, 39 • Overall recommendations • Information should be gathered about prisoners as soon as possible after admission • Assessment of security risks (reoffending/escape) and safety risks (harm/self-harm) contribute to the maintenance of good order in prison • Assessment of needs contribute to the development of sentence plans and preparation for release • Prison systems are encouraged to develop reliable risk and needs assessment tools to assist decision-making (e.g. for conditional release) • Information sessionsand/or training of decision-makers are essential • Decision-makingneedstobe consistent amongprisoners

5. Functions of risk assessment tools • Informing decisions with regards to sentencing • During pre-sentencing • Offer information that justify a certain sanction • Informing decisions with regards to interventions • During the execution of the sentence • Offer information that justify interventions aimed at reducing risks • Informing decisions with regards to conditional release • Before release • Offer information that justify early release of prisoners

6. Models • Risk and Needs Assessment (RNA) tools • Generations: first generation (based on semi-structured interviews and subjectivity of staff evaluation); second generation (using actuarial methods to calculate risk predictability); third generation (take account also of criminogenic needs); forth generation(focusing on dynamic factors offering guidance for case management); fifth generation(relying on “big data” and using machine learning algorithms; may look as reverting back to second generation because of the focus on static risk factors) • Types of tools depending on risk: • That offer a general prediction for risk of reoffending • That offer predictions for more specific risks (such as risk of violent crime, risk of sexual violence) • Tools reviewed • 18 general risk assessment tools (including LSI-R and OASys: OGRS and BSC), 6 specific tools assessing risk of violence, and 8 specific tools assessing risk of sexual violence

7. Index: general risk assessment tools • California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA) • Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) • Dutch Risk Assessment Scales / RecidiveInschattingsSchalen (RISc) • Inventory of Offender Risk, Needs, and Strenghts (IORNS) • Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) • Offender Assessment System (OASys) • Basic Custody Screening (BCS) • Offender Group Re-Conviction Scale (OGRS, OGRS2, OGRS3) • Offender Screening Tool (OST) • Ohio Risk Assessment System (ORAS) • Psychopathy Checklist – Revised (PCL-R), Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) • Swiss Crimino-Analytical Risk Assessment / KriminologischAnalytisches Risk Assessment (KARA) • Service Planning Instrument (SPIn) • Static Risk and Offender Needs Guide (STRONG) • Statistical Information on Recidivism – Revised 1 (SIR-R1) • Wisconsin Risk/Needs Scales (WRN), Correctional Assessment and Intervention System (CAIS)

8. Index: specific risk assessment tools • Classification of ViolenceRisk (COVR) • HistoricalClinicalRisk – 20 (HCR-20) • Rapid RiskAssessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism (RRASOR) • RiskAssessment in CatalonianPrisons (RisCanvi) • RiskMatrix 2000 (RM2000) • Sex OffenderNeedAssessment Rating (SONAR) • Sex OffenderRiskAppraisalGuide (SORAG) • Sexual ViolenceRisk – 20 (SVR-20) • SpousalAssaultRiskAssessmentGuide (SARA) • STATIC – 99 • StructuredAssessment of RiskandNeeds (SARN) • ViolenceRiskAppraisalGuide (VRAG) • ViolenceRisk Scale (VRS) • ViolenceRisk Scale: Sexual Offenders (VRS:SO)

9. Key developmentelements • Grounding tools on offender behaviour and theories • Include static and dynamic risk factors, as well as protective factors • Complete additional clinical assessments to reduce errors • Test the tool on specific populations • Test the tool for accuracy and consistency (inter-rater reliability) • Test the validity of items: Do they measure what they aim to measure? Do they predict well? • Use simple and clear language and offer staff further training • Build credibility and ensure transparency at different levels: staff that complete the assessment, staff that use the outcomes of the assessment, assessment prisoners

10. The Romanian prison risk assessment tool

11. Functionality Entry C1 C2 C3 Exit Probability of sanction Probability of reward Probability of sanction Probability of reward Needs Reoffending + Reoffending + Reoffending Rehabilitation plan Decision to release Decision to establish the execution regime Decision to change the execution regime

12. Design of the items Sources Key questions What is assessed? Who uses it? Who collects the data for it? How are data collected and used? • Current prison tools • International tools • Legal framework • Prison staff

13. Pre-test and inter-rater reliability • Purpose • To check easiness of use, completion time and item clarity • Elements • Sampling • Simultaneous data collection + feed-back from staff • Checking levels of trust per item • Redefining items with low trust levels

14. Validation and calibration • Purpose • To build statistical models of prediction • Elements • Sampling / population • Collecting data on the assessment framework • Collecting data on reoffending • Building/(re)calibrating the statistical model

15. References • Helmus, L.M. and Babchishin, K.M. (2017) Primer on Risk Assessment and the Statistics Used to Evaluate its Accuracy, Criminal Justice and Behavior, 44(1): 8-25. DOI: 10.1177/0093854816678898. • Monahan, J. and Skeem, J.L. (2016) Risk Assessment in Criminal Sentencing.Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 12: 489-513. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-021815-092945. • Recommendation Rec2006(2) on the European Prison Rules • Recommendation Rec(2003)22 on conditional release (parole) • Szabo, A. (2013) Sectiunea I: Instrumente de evaluare.Construireainstrumentului standard de evaluare. Fundamentareteoretică, Official document Romanian Administration of Penitentiaries • Taxman, F.S. and Dezember, A. (2016) The Value and Importance of Risk and Need Assessment (RNA) in Corrections & Sentencing: An Overview of the Handbook. Taxman, F.S., Handbook on Risk and Need Assessment, New York: Routlage, 1-22. DOI: 10.4324/9781315682327.