Adapting to Climate Change & Environmental Pressures: Adaptation of Public Policy

1. Adapting to Climate Change & Environmental Pressures: Adaptation of Public Policy Nancy Olewiler Public Policy Program Simon Fraser University Taming that Monster Under the Bed: Exploring Critical Relationships between Supply Chains and the Environment June 10, 2008

2. Is nature becoming more volatile?

3. Small changes in mean or extremes can yield large changes in risk Infrastructure sensitive to Rate of climate change Changes in mean climate (weathering) Changes in extremes (thresholds/failure) Adaptive capacity (ability to plan, respond, design, maintain) [Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide & T. Peterson for the graphics] Role of changing climate risk

4. Impacts of climate change magnified by: • Larger population & population density & size of the economy • Building in high risk areas (flood plains) • Lack of awareness, access to information, and understanding of climate impacts • Too much insurance, sense of entitlement • Regulatory, legislative barriers • Lack of tools or willingness to integrate knowledge with actions, BAU thinking • Interest group pressures

5. Supply chain vulnerabilities to climate change • Transportation infrastructure: roads, rail lines, ports: damage from sea-level rise, erosion, flooding, land slides, and temperature extremes affecting road surfaces • Changes in productivity from natural resource sectors: forests, agriculture, mining due to temperature and precipitation (too much/too little): shorter ice road and drilling seasons,  agricultural yields, pine beetle devastation • Fires impeding transportation, destroying infrastructure and communities

6. Long life & high value of Canadian capital stock How to avoid costly retrofits or replacement of infrastructure? Think about what type of investment now (From IPCC 2007, WG2-Chapter 15—slide from L. Mortsch) Infrastructure life & climate impacts coincide

7. “There is no scientific basis for claims that escalating disaster costs is the result of anything other than increasing societal vulnerability” (Pielke Jr., 2005 (Science)) “Society makes the assumption that technology and management can control nature and protect people” (Mileti, 1999; Disasters by Design) Risk models need to change; cannot extrapolate from past experience (MunichRe) “We need to better understand the compounding roles of increasing vulnerability and climate change” (Mills, 2005 (Science)) More people in harm’s way vs. ongoing societal responses that should have compensated for this (Kunkel et al., 1999, BAMS) Is the path forward clear? Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide quotes.

8. Issues and questions that arise from the data and projections • How will the climate change? • Do we have useful climate models or scenarios? • Are weather predictions & warnings adequate? • How will changing climate affect my community: city, province, country? • Is disaster planning & management adequate? • Do our land uses, infrastructure maintenance and development take into account climate change? • Do we have the expertise and capacity (human and financial) to address climate change? • What is the role & responsibility of government vs. private sector vs. people?

9. “I’ll deal with climate change when I see it happening – isn’t it good for Canada to be warmer!” “I’ll deal with climate change when you can tell me exactly what I need to plan for” “I don’t think global warming/climate change will affect my community” “I’ll wait until I see other communities preparing for climate change” “I don’t have time or money or information to deal with climate change right now” “I don’t have enough authority to plan for climate change” Challenges: reasons to do nothing!

10. Challenges: confusion between mitigation and adaptation • Shouldn’t public policy focus on reducing GHG emissions (mitigation) rather than on adaptation to climate change? • Does this mean we give up and simply respond to whatever climate does to us?

11. Ways to address the challenges • First, find a name for what you are doing Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the cartoon

12. A framework to link Adaptation (A) & Mitigation (M) [Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the diagram] A Vulnerability reduced [AMSD] Drought preparedness through demand side management; expanded application of recycling and conservation principles [adaptive emissions] Expanded use of air conditioners, aquaculture and sea walls M Emissions increased Emissions reduced Forest plantations for carbon sequestration; expansion of large hydro development [new vulnerabilities] Rapid deforestation for land use change (agriculture, mining, etc.) [unsustainable] Vulnerability increased

13. What is needed to address adaptation problems • Pull together resources (human, $) using a interdisciplinary team approach that includes • Best available science • Best available engineering and technology and planning • Economic and business acumen to ensure we weigh costs & benefits & achieve targets at minimum cost • Determination of the vulnerabilities: personal, business, community: risk assessment = vital • Leaders who look beyond the next election cycle • An informed and engaged public • Partnerships with other jurisdictions/organizations

14. Ways to avoid paralysis • Start analysis of local vulnerabilities because: • Many policy levers already exist, e.g. • Zoning & land use • Infrastructure maintenance & investment • Coincide with energy efficiency, GHG mitigation • Education and buy in of community is easier when make concrete link to local impacts • Likely minimizes costs of achieving targets because will be closer link between problem & solution (one size does not fit all) • Look for partners who can help

15. A framework for action • Define the problems you can tackle • Due diligence: • Information on best practices/outcomes • Design policy options in consultation with experts, community, business, and other stakeholders • Evaluate options against criteria using best available information • Implement options with monitoring of their performance

16. Best practices Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide

17. Example of best practices • King County, Washington: “Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments” • By Center for Science in the Earth System (The Climate Impacts Group), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington & King County, Washington • A pragmatic step-by-step guide for local & regional governments

18. King County: suggested steps • Scope the Climate Change Impacts to Your Major Sectors • Collect and Review Important Climate Information • How is Climate Expected to Change in Your Region? • What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Your Region? • Build and Maintain Support to Prepare for Climate Change • Identify or Cultivate a “Champion” for Preparedness • Identify and Understand Your Audience for Outreach • Develop a Preparedness Message • Spread the Message • Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team • How to Select Members and a leader for Your Team • Prepare the Team’s Agenda • Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment • Review and Supplement Important Climate Information • Conduct Your Climate Sensitivity Analysis • Evaluate Adaptive Capacity for Systems in Your Planning Areas

19. King County steps continued • Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assessment • Assess Your Climate Change Risks • Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas • Set Preparedness Goals and Develop Your Preparedness Plan • Establish a Vision and Guiding Principles for a Climate Resilient Community along with Preparedness Goals • Identify Potential Preparedness Actions • Assess your Actions against Criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, robustness under scenarios, equity, precautionary principle, flexibility) • Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions • Implement Your Preparedness Plan • Ensure that You Have the Right Implementation Tools • Manage Uncertainty and Risk • Measure Your Progress, Review your Assumptions, and Update Your Plan

20. Illustration of template for risk & policy analysis

21. Canadian initiatives: planning • Westbank, BC has included climate change in their Landscape Unit Water Management Plan • The town of Vanderhoof, BC is engaged in a vulnerability assessment pilot project • Alberta’s Water for Life Strategy addresses climate change impacts in areas that are currently water-stressed • British Columbia’s Future Forests Ecosystem Initiative incorporates climate change adaptation into forest management. • Research and networking have been supported through a range of federal, provincial and territorial programs. • MORE TALK THAN ACTION……..

22. City of Richmond -Climate Change Response Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide

23. Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide

24. Canadian initiatives: policies • Municipalities along the Quebec eastern North Shore have introduced regulations to limit development in zones vulnerable to coastal erosion and flooding. • Greater use of water meters to reduce water consumption in cities & irrigation districts (e.g., Kelowna, Sudbury, Moncton, BC’s WaterSmart plan • Smog and heat-health warning systems have been implemented in Toronto and Montréal. • New Brunswick’s Coastal Areas Protection Policy establishes set-backs for permanent structures.

25. Example: Manitoba Actions • Red River Floodway expanded from 1 in 90 to 1 in 700 year flood • Integrated Watershed Management Planning • Northern Winter Roads, relocated from ice crossings to land for safety and sustainability • East Side Lake Winnipeg Land Planning, traditional knowledge to inform adaptive decision making • Emergency Measures Office, municipal emergency management plans • Provincial Land Use Planning Policies updated to include provisions for adaptation Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide information.

26. ManitobaOverland flood protection Existing Upgraded to 1 in 700 yr. Blue (Surface and overland), Brown (Basement and sewer) Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide

27. Establish integrative office with representation from across ministries/agencies (with funding and powers and education role – within bureaucracy and outreach) Need to strengthen capacity in all related agencies Strategic planning & early action vital to minimize costs Early & continued public and business engagement with local jurisdictions to help set priorities; shared governance better than top down decrees; partnerships important Articulate limitations to stakeholders so don’t ramp up expectations Look for synergies with development activities – build better & smarter Tough to get attention due to competing demands for time & $ Decision making is complex (at any level): e.g., inconsistent policy and regulations Need long-term planning, not one-off projects; attach to a sustainability plan Establish liability for poor planning; accountability framework for public and private entities Climate adaptation policy: lessons learned…so far…

28. For information on ACT email: adapt@sfu.ca Photos from Don Haley & Natural Resources Canada