Emission and Air Quality Trends Review 1999-2011

1. Emission and Air Quality Trends Review1999-2011 New York July 2013

2. Project Objective • To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality in the U.S. since 1999 in easy to understand visual and tabular formats

3. Emission Trends • Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA emission inventories for years within the study period of interest (1999-2011) • By pollutant and source category • electric utility coal fuel combustion • mobile sources • industrial fuel combustion & industrial processes • all other

4. Emissions Data Summary • Data Obtained from EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites • EPA’s Trends reports and emission comparisons include interpolations of all categories between key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011) at county-pollutant level • Represented Pollutants: VOC, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 • Project Improvement • The Study Team augmented above data with year specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2011)

5. Emission Changes • The following slides also include the tonnage-based emissions change from 1999 to 2011 for each pollutant • Negative values indicate decrease in emissions, positive values indicate an increase

6. New York Emission Trends (VOC)

7. New York Emission Trends (VOC)

8. New York Emission Trends (NOx)

9. New York Emission Trends (NOx)

10. New York Emission Trends (SO2)

11. New York Emission Trends (SO2)

12. New York Emission Trends (PM2.5)

13. New York Emission Trends (PM2.5)

14. Emission Trends Summary • All pollutants have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across New York • NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation • Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA’s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions

15. Air Quality Design Values • Ozone • Annual 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour average averaged over three consecutive years • Current standard = 0.075 ppm • PM2.5 Annual • Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means averaged over three consecutive years • Current standard = 12 ug/m3 • PM2.5 24-Hour • Annual 98th percentile of daily averages averaged over three consecutive years • Current standard = 35 ug/m3

16. State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends • Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV • Max DV: Maximum DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period • Average DV: Average of DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period • Compute linear trend via least-squares regression

17. Data Handling Procedures • O3 design value (DV) for each overlapping three-year period starting with 1999-2001 and ending with 2009-2011 • DV calculated using annual 4th highest daily max 8-hr averages and percent of valid observations, based on EPA data handling conventions • Data associated with exceptional events that have received EPA concurrence are omitted • Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011 • Identification of nonattainment areas is with respect to the 2008 8-hour standard only

18. Data Handling Procedures • Annual PM2.5 DV and 24-hr PM2.5 DV for each overlapping three-year period starting with 1999-2001 and ending with 2009-2011 • DV calculations based on EPA data handling conventions • Data extracted from monitors that have a non-regulatory monitoring type are omitted • Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011

19. Trend Calculation • Trends based on linear least squares fit to rolling three year design values (DVs) • Negative trend indicates improving air quality • DVs based on each 3-year period: 1999-2001, 2000-2002, … 2009-2011 • Notes • On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in year shown (i.e., 2009-2011 DV plotted as 2011 value) • Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000 ppb = 1 ppm); DVs are plotted as ppm Trend in units of ppb/year Scale in units of ppm

20. Max/Ave O3 DVs and Trend

21. Ozone Trends by Site in New York Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed

22. Ozone Trends by Site in New York Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed

23. Ozone Trends by Site in New York Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed

24. Max/Ave PM2.5 Annual DVs and Trend

25. Max/Ave PM2.5 24-Hour DVs and Trend

26. PM2.5 Trends by Site in New York Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed

27. PM2.5 Trends by Site in New York Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed

28. Air Quality Trends Summary • Average O3 and 24-hr PM2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in New York; average annual PM2.5 design values have decreased since 2000 (incomplete data in 1999) • O3 and PM2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in all currently designated O3 and PM2.5 non-attainment areas in New York