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Trajectory Trends Breakfast June 2018

Explore the changing demographics in the UK and around the world, including population growth, increasing life expectancy, falling fertility rates, and the impact on trends such as breakfast habits. Understand the drivers of population growth and the evolving meaning of age. Discover the reshaped workforce and the modern journey to adulthood. Consider alternative scenarios and potential challenges for the future.

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Trajectory Trends Breakfast June 2018

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  1. Trajectory Trends Breakfast June 2018 Demographics in the UK

  2. Global population: The Big Numbers • 7.6bn • 8.3bn • 9.6bn 2100 11.2bn Source: United Nations Median estimates 2017

  3. Increasing Life Expectancy Source: World Bank

  4. The Role of Fertility Rates Source: World Bank

  5. Fertility rate per woman

  6. Falling Infant Mortality Source: World Bank

  7. Demographics in the UK

  8. The UK’s Growing Population Source: United Nations World Population Prospects

  9. Drivers of population growth: #1: Birth rates Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2018

  10. Drivers of population growth: #2: Life expectancy Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2018

  11. Drivers of population growth: #3: Immigration Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2018

  12. Generational Equipoise Source: Office of National Statistics, 2014 based National Population Projections

  13. The Changing Demographic Context • 2015: An ageing population with ‘booms’. Younger cohorts are much smaller than older cohorts. • 1975: Younger cohorts are much larger than those in 2015, and much smaller among older cohorts. • 2035: Most noticeable is the extent of the growth in the population aged over 70, as the largest group in 2015 reach old age. Source: Office of National Statistics

  14. Changing shape of the family

  15. Right notes, wrong order: Deregulated Demographics

  16. The Changing Meaning of Age ‘Old age’ starts later As individuals are healthier for longer, the post family stage expands. Over the next decade, this will encompass much of people’s 7th and 8th decade, but retirement (in the traditional sense) is not guaranteed Fertility rates decline and the age of childbirth continues to rise, meaning that time spent in the parental role starts later and lasts for less time The pre-family life stage expands, with more time spent in education Small changes to childhood Source: Willmott & Nelson, Complicated Lives / Trajectory

  17. Ageing & Generation Cherry Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2018

  18. Reshaped workforce Source: ILO/UN WPP

  19. The Modern Journey to Adulthood The Journey to Adulthood is changing Classic Journey More Realistic Journey • Finish education • Move out of parent’s house • Financial independence • Get married • Have children • Move out (to University) • Finish Education • Move back home • Start working • Move out again • Move back to save money for deposit • Move out again • Have children • Get married • Buy home?

  20. Case Study: Housing • Just under two-thirds of Baby Boomers owned their home by the time they reached 30 • Figure has fallen to 42% in Millennials • Millennials will spend an average of £53,000 on rent by the age of 30, compared to £9,000 for Boomers Home ownership rates by age for each generation: UK, 1961-2016 Source: Office of National Statistics & The Resolution Foundation

  21. The end of (binary) gender?

  22. The next generation is driving change Age at referral Source: The Tavistock and Portman NHS Foundation Trust; 2017

  23. Diverse UK Location of those born abroad by % of local authority population Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 2014

  24. Alternative Scenarios

  25. Demographic inequality Life Expectancy Along the Jubilee Line Source: London Datastore; Ward Atlas Source: ONS

  26. Longevity: a slowing of progress in the UK

  27. Could longevity start to decline? “A steady increase that had gone on, almost uninterrupted for a century has now nearly ground to a halt. What makes this especially worrisome is that in the United States, the last couple of years have actually seen life expectancy get shorter. Is it possible that Britons could follow Americans and start dying younger?”

  28. Decline in drinking amongst young adults Source: Health Survey for England, 2016 (16-24s)

  29. A Transhuman future? “It is the belief that we can and should eradicate ageing as a cause of death; that we can and should use technology to augment our bodies and our minds; that we can and should merge with machines, remaking ourselves, finally, in the image of our own higher ideals.” - Mark O’Connell: To Be a Machine

  30. Summary of key points • Global population looks set to continue to grow – putting ever greater pressure on resources • UK population growing and ageing – putting ever greater pressure on resources • Generational Equipoise means consumers, clients and employees will be multi-generational • The de-regulation of demographics – an end to ‘the natural order of things’ • However, alternative positive and negative alternative scenarios are possible in the longer term

  31. Trajectory 22 Upper Ground, London, SE1 9PD + 44 (0)20 8004 4869 trajectorypartnership.com @TrajectoryTweet Tom Johnson, Managing Director tom@trajectorypartnership.com

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