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Comments on physical simulator models

Comments on physical simulator models. David D. Jackson, UCLA. Forecast capabilities. Statistical distributions of earthquakes on prespecified faults Magnitude frequency Temporal (recurrence) for initiation, participation, and combinations Spatial

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Comments on physical simulator models

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  1. Comments on physical simulator models David D. Jackson, UCLA

  2. Forecast capabilities • Statistical distributions of earthquakes on prespecified faults • Magnitude frequency • Temporal (recurrence) for initiation, participation, and combinations • Spatial • Paleoseismic rate, sigma, slip rate, displacement distribution

  3. Off-fault earthquakes • Not defined in phys sim models • Contribute to stress, and presumably to earthquake probability, on faults • Are counted in actual earthquake statistics (magnitude, temporal, spatial) but not in phys sim models • Participate in clustering models as sources and receivers, but not in phys sim models

  4. UCERF2 Assignment of historic earthquakes to faults

  5. UCERF2 Assignment of instrumental earthquakes to faults

  6. Summary, UCERF2 Earthquakes on faults

  7. Limits to forecasting power • Phys sim models are explicitly time-dependent (conditional on history), but history can’t be input or matched in simulations • Can’t be tested because they could forecast only on-fault quakes, which are not defined. • Paleoseis record is presumably recording on-fault quakes, but is not complete. • ?Clustering studies show that small earthquakes are important in triggering, but phys sim models can include them only with massive calculations?. • Models depend on Coulomb stress, which hasn’t yet demonstrated clear forecasting ability. But simulators could help make the case by setting up initial conditions.

  8. Conditional Stopping Probability in 10km segment boundary according to WGCEP2008

  9. Smoothed seismicity and faults

  10. Stochastic earthquake simulation,100 m=6.5+ events

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