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Kenichi Ueda International Monetary Fund Young Economists Seminar, Dubrovnik, June 23, 2010

Comments on “Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premiums for European Emerging Markets” by Dumicic and Ridzak. Kenichi Ueda International Monetary Fund Young Economists Seminar, Dubrovnik, June 23, 2010

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Kenichi Ueda International Monetary Fund Young Economists Seminar, Dubrovnik, June 23, 2010

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  1. Comments on “Determinants of Sovereign Risk Premiums for European Emerging Markets” by Dumicic and Ridzak Kenichi Ueda International Monetary Fund Young Economists Seminar, Dubrovnik, June 23, 2010 The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the International Monetary Fund, its Executive Board or its management.

  2. Summary of the Paper • The paper investigates which factors affect sovereign risk premium for European EMs. Well documented. • Factors are • Global risk appetite measured by VIX** • Country specific macro fundamentals (lagged) • GDP growth ** • ΔGovt debt/GDP • Inflation* ; Δ CB reserve/GDP • Δ CA deficit/GDP; External debt growth; Δ Imports/GDP • EU accession process** • “advanced” EM group (assumed to have low vulnerability) • Interaction terms (VIX x CA, x ExtDebt, x Group*)

  3. Comment 1: Interaction terms • Interactions are interesting and important • Given the same global shock to risk appetite (VIX), how the sovereign risk premiums respond differently among countries? • Better to look at more interaction terms • GDP growth, inflation, etc.

  4. Comment 2: A deeper question • Difference in response to VIX reflects also (future) fundamentals. • What is the mechanism that affects the economic performance (and thereby the risk premium) when the global investors’ risk appetite suddenly changed?

  5. Comment 3: Example, Bloom (2009)

  6. Comment 3: Implications by Bloom • Rise in uncertainty affects economic performance, depending on rigidities in factor markets--both labor and investment. • “Fundamental” variables are endogenously determined. • More rigid  worse performance • Also see, Blanchard and Gali on oil price; Claessens, Ueda, and Yafeh on investment (tomorrow) • More flexible economy can whether shocks better

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