Yves Desaubies, On behalf of the Mersea Consortium

1. The MERSEA Project:towards Marine Core Servicesfrom Global to regional ocean monitoring and forecasting Yves Desaubies, On behalf of the Mersea Consortium SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

2. « Development of a European system for monitoring and forecasting … »; • Environmental information for policy makers; • Reference information and data in support of marine applications • High quality data for ocean science • Towards Marine Core Services SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

3. MERSEA Integrated Project R&D project funded by the European Commission (FP6) • Thematic priority : SPACE - GMES • Ocean and Marine Applications for GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) 4-year project (2004 –2008) 38 contractors, 16 countries (or Int. Org.) • Coordination : IFREMER (Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la Mer), • Participants : meteorological agencies, marine institutes, research labs, small companies, … SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

4. GMES Marine Core Services Combining in-situ and satellite data, with models to provide ocean monitoring and forecasting Analysis, forecast and hindcast SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

5. MERSEA :data assimilation into ocean models • Data assimilation (remote sensed, in situ) • Altimetry, SST, ice, ocean colour • In situ profiles and surface : ARGO, XBT, CTD, SOOP • Forcing fields : ECMWF, or regional NWF • Ocean physics, biogeochemistry and ecosystems • A global system • Regional and shelf sea systems • Connection to coastal systems • Marine Core ServicesforGMES (2008): • Contribution to Global Earth Observing Syst of Syst (GEOSS) Nowcasts, forecasts, hindcasts SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

6. MERSEA : • A vision • A Project developing • A system • ….. (pre-) opeational in 2008 ! • … a work in progress SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

7. The observing system for climate A schematic of the composite ocean observing systems, including the current status against the goals of the 2000 - 2010 implementation plan. (Johnson, JCOMM, OPA, NOAA/OCO) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

8. Remote sensing : from to R & D to production • Merged altimetry (=> dynamic height) • SSALTO / DUACS (Toulouse • High resolution SST • Medspiration, with GHRSST-PP (GODAE High Resolution SST) • Ocean colour => chlorophyl, primary production • JRC : Joint Research Centre • Sea ice • Concentration @ Eumetsat OSI- SAF; drift @ IFREMER • Wind and fluxes • ECMWF • Merged products (scaterrometre + ECMWF) : CERSAT IFREMER SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

9. Altimetry: merged products Mean absolute dynamic topography Mean sea level anomaly SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

10. Wind fields: merged fields Combine winds from Numerical Weather Prediction (ECMWF) with high resolution sattelite fields (scaterrometre) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

11. Sea surface temperature, (with GODAE High Resolution SST – PP) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

12. SeaWifs- MODIS Chlorophyll a : 9 yrs analysis (EC Joint Research Center) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

13. Sea Ice Concentration and drift R. Ezraty, 2005 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

14. Research and development • Modelling, assimilation, bio-geochemistry, .. • Process representation, algorithms, parmeterisations, numerics, codes • Transfer to operational suites • Downscaling, model nesting, zooms, boundary conditions, • Data products, merged fields (multi-sensors), quality control, forcing fields • Ecosystems in regional seas • Seasonal forecasting SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

15. Resolution Equator 45°N 60°N 1/4° 27 km 19 km 13 .5 km Global ¼° NEMO-LIM simulation 1958-2000 The French DRAKKAR Group • These models are resolving: • Eddies and fronts • Boundary currents • Coastal upwelling • sea-ice cover, thickness SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

16. SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

17. The Drakkar Group, Barnier et al (CNRS) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

18. The MERSEA System SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

19. Production, information Management Search and discovery; Viewing Download • 8 Production centres (or networks), operated by Agencies • Integration, consistency, quality of services • Common formats, standards, best practices • Catalogues, inventories of products • Data access and distribution ; archival • Adapt product and delivery to user needs, user desk SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

20. Area I : Global Ocean Area II : North East Atlantic Area III : Arctic Area IV : Baltic Sea Area V : Mediterranean Sea 3 2 4 1 5 SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

21. Monitoring and Forecasting Centres • Global : Mercator – Océan • North East Atlantic and NW shelves : Met Office and the NCOF • Arctic : NERSC and met.no • Baltic : DMI • Mediterranean : INGV and the MOON network SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

22. Mercator Océan • French Centre for ocean monitoring and forecasting • Supported by CNES, CNRS, IFREMER, IRD, SHOM and Météo-France • Vigourous R & D programme • Full suite of models with different resolution, relocatable high resolution Development of a global 1/12°, with assimilation SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

23. The Global Ocean Production system Global ¼° ocean model assimilating satellite altimetry 2 1 a1/15° Zoom on North Atlantic & Mediterranean assimilating satellite altimetry, Reynolds SST and in situ data A precursor of the Global 1/12° 3 4 Global 2° assimilating satellite altimetry Global Observation-based product (T&S, currents) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

24. What does it deliver? Real-Time production • on a weekly basis, • 3D fields of the ocean state • Real-time analysis, • 2 weeks of daily forecasts, • maps & numerical fields, Reference simulations SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

25. SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

26. National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF) (www.ncof.gov.uk) – a strategic partnership between: (1) Ocean Forecasting R&D, Met Office a) Operational global and regional wave analyses and 5 day forecasts. b) Operational open ocean and shelf seas hydrodynamic (and ecosystem) analyses, hindcasts and 5 day forecasts. c) Operational satellite products. d) Links to internal observational and climate groups. (2) Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory a) ~40 year regional (and global) and process shelf seas models. b) Wave hindcast and process models. c) Links to internal process and observational capability. (3) National Oceanographic Centre a) ~40 year Open Ocean hindcast runs b) Remote sensing facility. c) Links to observational and process expertise and groups. (4) Plymouth Marine Laboratories a) Remote sensing operational and R&D capability. b) Ecosystem modelling and process expertise. (5) Environmental System Science Centre a) ~40 year open ocean analyses. b) Expertise in data management and services. Selected products only – see web site for details SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

27. viewing … North East Atlantic(different fields, model & observations) FOAM model Model SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007 Observations

28. From Global to regional to coastal seas : Analysis and forecasts Exemples form the TOPAZ – NERSC system : North Sea and Gulf of Guinea SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

29. Final users • Offshore industry support, ship routing • Products : currents, temperature, waves, sea- ice • High resolution, nowcasts, forecasts, re-analysis for statistics, extreme events • Local to global • Emergency : oil spill response, search and rescue • Currents, temperature, surface, very high resolution, coastal • Readiness, real-time, analysis and short term forecasts • Coastal systems • Coastal management, ecosystems, water quality, sea level • Observations are necessary, • Very high resolution, nesting into larger scale systems SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

30. MOTHY + Mercator 103m MOTHY operational Prestige : oil spilled on the track In green, areas with positive impact of Mercator currents In red, areas where MOTHY alone is better MOTHY and operational oceanography systems SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

31. Offshore industry support in Gulf of Mexico SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

32. Gulf of Mexico Dynamics SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

33. SST Image of Loop Current and Eddies SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

34. Service in support of the offshore oil and gas industry http://www.oceannumerics.com SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

35. ‘Edge’ - an improved nowcasting tool • Further development of software tool for delineating fronts • Permits use of all available satellite and in-situ data for delineation of best frontal boundary • Utilises only latest images SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

36. QUALITY (Analysis, Short-term Forecast) Best Estimate Surface velocity for Day 05/09 around MARS location ADCP velocities at 50 m vs PSY2V2 surface velocities magnitude (upper panel) + direction (lower panel) ADCP Data* 2005 Wintertime period (Feb-May) Offshore « Mars » Oil platform (SHELL) location (Central North GOM) • Black line : ADCP records • Red line/Green Line /Blue line : alternate colors representing • the succession of 14 days of model forecasts issued weekly • (warning : High frequencies are not filtered) SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

37. Forecast verification tables for decision-aid support Table 3: Distance-to-front errors as a function of the forecast length Binary event : “frontal occurrence at the MARS Offshore site” • User-specific metric = Similar methodology as in PROFS Deepstar Shootout Evaluation Study [Oey et al.,2005] & similar/improved statistics expected Table 2: Contingency table for the event « frontal occurrence at the MARS location » over 17 weeks : an indicator of model forecast performance SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

38. Comments • Need to utilise multiple information streams • Data coverage is essential, condition sine qua non • Significant dependence upon forecaster’s interpretation and expertise • The model won’t always get it right, • but has definite, albeit limited skill • Users expect very high accuracy • Ways to improve : • Local high resolution models and data • Local data assimilation SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

39. Real time current profiles in GoM SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

40. What is next : Marine Core Services Part of the GMES architecture • Call for proposals FP7, to cover transition 2008 => To provide basic service, to intermediate users • Monitoring and basic mapping; • Collect organise data collection, availability • Operational forecasting; • Global and main regional areas Intermediate users : • Agencies (marine, meteorology), science • Reporting agencies (EEA, ICES, OSPAR) • Value adding companies SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

41. Summary, conclusions • The systems are running • State of the art, continuous improvement • Provide generic information and services (MCS) • Nesting capability • Several data streams, product lines (analysis, forecasts, re-analysis), large catalogue • Observations, observations, observations !! • Specific applications require further expertise • Data policy must be clarified • Other issues • Sustainability, governance, SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007

42. GODAE project office SIMORC Workshop – OGP – London, March 28, 2007