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OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK

Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: The intersection of biophysical change with social perception across a diverse landscape.

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OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK

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  1. Indicators of Climate Change in Idaho: The intersection of biophysical change with social perception across a diverse landscape Authors*: Zion Klos, John Abatzoglou, Jarod Blades, Melissa Clark, Chistopher Currie, Megan Dodd, Sanford Eigenbrode, Troy Hall, Amanda Haruch, Jeff Hicke, Phil Higuera, Joseph Holbrook, Vincent Jansen, Kerry Kemp, Alycia Lamar, Amber Lankford, Tim Link, Troy Magney, Arjan Meddens, Liza Mitchell, Brandon Moore, Penny Morgan, Beth Newingham, Ryan Niemeyer, Ben Soderquist, Alexis Suazo, Christa Teston, Kerri Vierling, Von Walden, Chelsea Walsh *University of Idaho, multiple colleges and departments

  2. OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S TALK • Objectives • Methods • Biophysical changes • Social perceptions • Results • New Insights for Climate Change Assessments • Outreach Goals Above and cover photo courtesy Matthew Dolkas

  3. Main Objectives • Provide a framework for finer-scale, indicator-focused climate change assessments • Provide a case example that compares perceived impacts and observed indicators of climate change • Understand the differences between types of climate change indicators & how they can be classified by their utility for climate assessments Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  4. Interdisciplinary Methods • Graduate-student led with input from faculty advisors • Conducted stakeholder survey of perceived CC impacts • Identified biophysical data sources and CC indicators • Created a final interdisciplinary synthesis and translation of findings for general audience Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  5. BIOPHYSICAL CHANGES: OUR INDICATORS FRAMEWORK... “Climate Change Indicators”defined as: Observedclimate-relatedtrends in variables from physical, ecological, and social systems Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  6. SOCIAL PERCEPTIONS:OUR SURVEY FRAMEWORK… • What is most important and useful? • Impacts (outcomes) of climate change • Indicators of change • Exploratory survey (N= 100) • Managers asked about personal and professional significance Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  7. PERCEIVED IMPACTS Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  8. Relevant Climate Change Indicators Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Normalized Importance (%) Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  9. Relevant Climate Change Indicators Top 3 Climate Measures and Indicators Normalized Importance (%) Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  10. Climate Change Indicators Identified • Temperature • Average annual temperature • Frost-free growing season • Precipitation • Precipitation phase • Snowpack accumulation and melt • Precipitation intensity • Water Systems • Streamflow • Annual discharge • Timing of peak and 50% flow • Stream temperature • Ecological Indicators • Phenology • Lilac blooms • Mountain Bluebird nesting dates (state bird!) • Salmon migration • Disturbance • Wildfire • Bark beetle kill • Species viability and productivity • Sagebrush • Social Indicators • Heat related illness • Recreation • Ski season Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  11. Intensification of Precipitation Events Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  12. FROST-FREE GROWING SEASON Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  13. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  14. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments CC Indicator Type Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  15. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments CC Indicator Type vs. Perceived Level of Impact Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  16. New Insights for Climate Change Assessments Streamflow Drought Snowpack B Human activities Fire disturbance Species viability & productivity Perceived level of impact in Idaho Precipitation Biotic disturbance A C Air temperature Plant phenology D Stream temperature Species movements Animal phenology Variable partially influenced by climate Direct measure of climate Example indicators of climate change Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  17. Outreach Goals • Website, Online PDF, & Executive Summary • Re-written using more general language • State-wide distribution • Peer Reviewed Publication Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

  18. Responses and Perceived Impacts by Sector State Agency Federal Agency NGO Corporate or Private Other Climate Indicator Objectives - Methods - Results - Conclusions - Outreach

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