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The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects

The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects. Prof. Jacob A. Frenkel Vice Chairman AIG, Chairman G30 Former Governor, Bank of Israel. Global Equity Markets. 2. Global Equity Markets. 3. U.S. Mortgage Market: 2003-2005. 2003. 2004. 2005.

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The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects

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  1. The World Economic & Financial System: Risks & Prospects Prof. Jacob A. Frenkel Vice Chairman AIG, Chairman G30 Former Governor, Bank of Israel

  2. Global Equity Markets 2

  3. Global Equity Markets 3

  4. U.S. Mortgage Market: 2003-2005 2003 2004 2005 Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, Last update February 8, 2008

  5. U.S. Mortgage Market: 2006-2007 2006 2007 Source: Inside Mortgage Finance, Last update February 8, 2008

  6. Changes in U.S. Home Prices 6

  7. U.S. Household Real Estate Wealth 7

  8. U.S. New Home Sales and Housing Starts 8

  9. Credit Market Losses: All Financials (bill. Usd) Source: Bloomberg, Quarterly, Last update Jan 9, 2009 9

  10. Capital Raised: All Financials (bill. Usd) Source: Bloomberg, Quarterly, Last update Jan 9, 2009 10

  11. Size of the Derivatives Markets June 2008 20.3 Trill. June 1998 2.5 Trill. Source: BIS, 6 month levels, Last Observation Jun 2008

  12. Global GDP Growth (%) 12

  13. Real GDP Growth (%) Industrial Countries 13

  14. Real GDP Growth (%) Developing Countries

  15. Real GDP Growth (%) World Economy 15

  16. Global Growth Contributions Source: IMF, av. annual growth rates, last update October 9 2008

  17. World Trade Volume (annual change)

  18. U.S. Consumer Confidence and Spending Source: Conference Board, BEA, Qrtly averages; last observation Consumer Spending (11/08), consumer confidence (1/2009) 18

  19. Oil Price per Barrel 19

  20. Coordinated Global Rate Cuts Eurozone 2.0% Canada 1.5% UK 1.0% US 0.25% Japan 0.1%

  21. U.S. Government Deficit as % of GDP Source: Federal Reserve, US Department of Commerce, last observation Q3/2008

  22. Current Account of Balance of Payments Asia $682B Asia & Oil Exporters Save ME Oil Exp. plus Russia $434B Eurozone -$54B Europe Balances U.S. - $485B US Spends Source: IMF, av. annual growth rates, last update October 9 2008, WEO (2008 estimate, 2009 forecast) 22

  23. Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves ($B) Stock Flow (2005 – 2007) 23

  24. National Savings Rate Comparison Gross Domestic Savings: 2007 (% of GDP) Source: EIU estimates, annual average rates, Last update 3/2008 24

  25. Export Strategy: China and India 25

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